The Big Defensive Liability

I may take some flak for this remark, I may not, I just don't really know how the world views the Cleveland Cavaliers, but I can tell you after watching last night's game, The Diesel is hurting this club. Admittedly, the Cavs are a buck short without Shaq, but they're $1.05 short with him, and this is my take after watching O'Neal post a double-double with 5 blocks. That's what makes my thoughts, at least in my head, that much more poignant -- the fact that Shaq could have his best fantasy night of the season, and, in my opinion, still do more harm than good, is a testament to the fact that he should be coming off the bench and playing 18-22 minutes a night.

He takes up a ton of room, but he simply cannot guard bodies outside the paint, and while Zydrunas Ilgauskus is almost as slow, big Z has slightly better body control and understands the Cavs defensive schemes. I just don't think acquiring Shaq to start makes sense for any team in the League. We're in an era where centers can slide out and pop a 20-foot jumper, and if Shaq could still just push people around and jump the way he used to, it might not be an issue, but he runs into two problems in his old age. Either he comes out to defend the jumper and can't get back to help his teammates on drives or pick-and-roll plays, or he camps out at the edge of the key, and gets burned by his man just shooting over him. It's time to make Shaq the 6th Man of the Year candidate he should be.

Sports Wagering

Bobcats/Hawks - Do the Hawks really have the gusto to maintain their solid road warrior style over the long term? That is undoubtedly the key question when taking Atlanta on the road, and they continue their current roadie in Charlotte. Right now, Atlanta is favored by 2.5 at most books, 2 at some, and that has come down from an opening line of 3. Interesting line movement in this one that clearly favors Charlotte, but that's not necessarily reason enough to play the Bobcats. The total in this one opened at 177.5 and moved up to 179.5 where it sits now. I think that upward move is pretty fair, given Atlanta's propensity for running and gunning. Charlotte loves playing molasses-style games, and we see this approximately 180 point combination because of the two styles of play butting heads. Atlanta has won back-to-back games in Portland and Sacramento, so they're definitely playing good ball, and for that reason this line seems WAY too low. The afternoon will be spent determining if the line is that low because of a trap or because Atlanta is still underrated. Stay tuned, this one could have some value.

Magic/Pistons - This line is gargantuan, sitting at -13 for the home team right now after opening at the even higher mark of -14. The line likely came down a point because sharps feel that any time they can get 14 points in a basketball game, they'll take it, but since the line came down to -13, money has been fairly split, and I think the books will likely keep the line pretty close to this number. Orlando has a pretty good shot of covering, believe it or not. They missed a ton of wide open shots in their loss to Detroit a couple days ago and just looked tired and uninterested. Such will not be the case here, as you just know Dwight Howard is going to want to make a statement after his stinker in their previous match-up. Orlando is coming off a home beatdown of the Phoenix Suns, and the Pistons got stuffed in Toronto. The total is at 191.5 after opening at 193, with the move downward being driven partially by the public hammering the Under (in a rare move, there). The Magic will push 100, but I'm not sure Detroit can crack 85 in this one, so the Under does, in fact, look pretty good, but it might be best to avoid this one.

Pacers/Wizards - The Pacers are laying 1.5 at home to Washington with a total that has come down from its opening line of 209 to its current mark of 207.5. This line is interesting, as Indiana has only looked decent in one game this year, so for them to be favored is once again the oddsmakers capping this game by where the Pacers SHOULD be, not necessarily where they are. Money is fairly split, but with the Pacers shooting woes against even marginal defenses this year, I would lean to Washington. That total looks pretty accurate, but again, until the Pacers play a few games in a row that make me think, "Oh, this is an actual NBA team," I'm probably going to opt to avoid Indiana-related wagers. As I mentioned in a tweet a few days ago, Indiana has looked at times like they couldn't toss a stone into the ocean.

Sixers/Nets - Philly is favored by a whopping 12 points at home with a total that has skyrocketed from 189 to 194. When a total moves 5 points like that, I'm generally inclined to believe the final mark will be pretty close to where the line stops. Considering this one literally jumped 5 points before I could even analyze it, I would say take the Under or nothing at all. Most likely, nothing at all in terms of the total. On the side, as long as New Jersey remains without Devin Harris, they really can't compete with anyone. I know 12 points is a ton to lay, but the Sixers are going to be IRATE after getting embarrassed at home by the Celtics, and the Nets are the lucky team that gets to deal with the brunt of Philly's rage. Strong lean to the fave to cover in this one.

Celtics/Suns - Celtics favored by 10.5 at home to Phoenix with a total that has moved up 1 point from 205.5 to 206.5. Phoenix got manhandled in Orlando in their last game, and thing are only going to get tougher for them. Boston returns to the parquet after a less-than-stellar game in Minnesota where they did just barely squeeze by a scrappy Timberwolves club. Boston has been winning by enormous margins this year, aside from the Minnesota game, but with Phoenix's offensive ability, and coming off a poor shooting game in Florida, I would stay away from the side in this one. In terms of the total, I just don't see how Phoenix lets this one stay below 200. Even if they can't score, the sheer number of possessions would seem to point to someone breaking 100, maybe both teams. We lost a key point in the total's move, which makes me less confident, but I'd still call it a slight lean to the Over.

Heat/Nuggets - Miami opened as a 1.5 point favorite to the Nuggets?? This game has TRAP written ALL OVER IT. Denver is coming off two road SMASHINGS, demolishing the Pacers, then demolishing the Nets shortly thereafter. Miami returns home after a solid road win in Washington, but in terms of how these teams have played this year, Denver has been the truly dominant club. So why, we ask, would oddsmakers give Denver points in this game? I see a few books that have dropped the line to a pick, but based on line alone I would say Denver lays an egg and Miami wins this one by 6 points. The total has come down from 206 to just 201.5, another sign that books think Miami dictates the tempo, or at least does so MORE than the Nuggets. If Denver had their way, this game would be a 115-100 final, but Miami wants no part of a scoring contest, since really, no one in the NBA can compete with the Nugs on that account. In a defensive battle, though, Miami has a chance. Taking care of the ball, Miami can use a balanced attack to hand the Nuggets their first loss of 2009. Again, with the total moving so much, I would avoid it. If you're an action junkie, play the Under. There's a reason the line keeps dropping against the money.

Wolves/Bucks - Minnesota earned some respect in their last game. Just by keeping it close against the Celtics, Minny gets the honor of laying 2.5 points at home to the Bucks with a total that opened at 185 and quickly climbed to 189. This is an interesting game, at least if you're stuck watching two teams that won't blow anyone out. Minnesota focuses on Al Jefferson inside, while the Bucks (with oft-injured Michael Redd out yet again) utilize the ball-handling prowess of rookie guard Brandon Jennings to make their headway. This line is too close for me to get a great read on the game, and among the NBA games tonight, this is one that probably sees VERY little action. The line movement has been fair so far, and while I hate to admit a lack of knowledge, I just simply do not know how these teams are going to react to this game. Minnesota is prime for a let-down after LOSING that game to the Celtics, while the Bucks are a growing team that could put up wonderful performance, or might just take the night off. I lean to the road team to win this one outright, but this is as WEAK a lean as I will even bother to mention in these Roundups. No play on the total.

Hornets/Raptors - Hornets laying 5 at home to the team from the snowy lands to the North with a total of 205. Most of the money right now is coming in on Toronto, with the Hornets still garnering almost no respect, even after an improbable win over the Mavs on Wednesday. Toronto, on the other hand, hasn't shown much on the road this year, losing their only game away from home to the Memphis Grizzlies. This seems like a spot where the Hornets (after a team meeting/Byron Scott tirade seemed to wake them up) can get a victory. I don't think this game will be decided by the final bucket, so I would lean on the Hornets to cover. In terms of the total, Byron Scott is preaching a quicker tempo this year, since he feels that they really don't have the weapons (not named Chris Paul) to score in a half-court set every time. Toronto is another team that likes to maximize the number of possessions in a game. This one could hit 215, and I lean strongly to the Over.

Knicks/Cavs - Knicks getting 8 points at MSG with a total that opened at 205 and has since plummeted to 200 on the nose at many books, with a scant few still clinging to 201 or 202. They'll join the party soon enough. The combination of spread and falling total is a downright kooky situation, especially given the fact that this line opened at 8.5, and has fallen a half point despite 85% of public money coming in on the Cavs. Someone out there named Mr. Oddsmaker has a good idea the Knicks will bring it, tonight. You know Lebron is going to try to do it himself, and he might just have to, though New York's style of play certainly lends itself to role-players having career nights, as well. The Cavs haven't really done enough this year to warrant laying 8 points away from home, and with this one being the second half of a back-to-back, you can bet your bottom dollar Mike Brown will try to slow this thing down to a crawl. I lean to the Knicks on the side, but with the total collapsing 5 points, I would probably just avoid it altogether.

Rockets/Thunder - Houston is favored by 6.5 at home to the suddenly relevant Thunder. At first glance, you have to like Oklahoma City getting 6.5 points against a team playing better than they should, and my second and third glances have done very little to convince me to try anything else. Houston is coming off a hugely disappointing loss to the Lakers in a game they probably should have won, but instead fell behind late, forced OT, then lost by a single point in the extra 5 minutes. The Thunder are coming off a loss to those very same Lakers in rather similar fashion. That being said, you get the feeling the Thunder felt like their battle with LA was progress. Houston felt they SHOULD have won; Oklahoma City WANTED to win, but perhaps didn't believe they should. So, moving forward, Oklahoma City is feeling better about themselves, and should play Houston tough. This line is under that magic number of 7, which means Houston could front-door Thunder-backers, but I'd still lean to the road doggie on the side. The total in this one is currently at 188.5 after opening at 190, and I think it might still be a bit too high. I'll look a bit more into this total, but I just can't see these teams shooting the lights out coming off those tough losses.

Warriors/Clippers - Golden State covered in their last game, so they get to be a home favorite once more, this time laying 4.5 points to the traveling Clippers circus. The total opened at 218 and dropped 3 points to 215. I'm not sure I agree with this total movement, and I'm not sure I agree with the side falling from 5.5 to 4.5. I think we might be getting an advantage in both thanks to the movement. The Clippers have already decided to change their starting lineup to try to combat the Warriors small-ball, which means Golden State has the early mental edge. The Clippers, with Al Thornton battling the flu, should get sucked in by the Warriors style of play. The issue here is that the Clippers just don't shoot the ball well. If they take it to the rim consistently, this total should be easy to clear, but if the Clippers fall in love with hoisting up jumpers, we're in trouble. For that reason, the total is an avoid right now, but that could change. I lean to the Warriors to cover on the side. With a nice 8-point win over Memphis in their journals, and a tiny bit of confidence mixed into their afternoon snacks, the Warriors should take this one by 7 or 8 points, as well.

Lakers/Grizzlies - The Lakers are favored by 10 at home to the Grizzlies. Without looking at the numbers, I will go out on a limb and guess that the public is on LA. I disagree with that choice. The Lakers are going to be playing without BOTH of their big men in this one, and are coming home after two overtime road wins. LA is in prime position to try to coast through a game against lesser competition, and the Grizzlies are in prime position to take their best shot at the defending champs. I don't think Kobe lets LA lose this game, but I also don't see them pulling away. Strong lean to the Grizz. The total is a mess -- another game where we have over 5 points of movement on the opening line of 205. Right now, we're settled at 211. Just let this one go, or play the Under.

Blazers/Spurs - This is a downright harrowing journey for San Antonio, playing the late night game in Utah on TNT and getting blasted, then quickly shooting to the Pacific Northwest for a game against the bruisers in Portland. Portland is favored by 4 right now after opening as 3-point faves, and I think this line is pretty fair. San Antonio is going to give it their best, but I think Portland prevails in a defensive battle. Yes, the Blazers have looked a bit stagnant over their last couple games, but at the same time, the Spurs haven't shown anything worth a damn on the road. Two teams looking to get things turned around in different ways, but you just have to give the advantage to the home team in this spot. The total is at 185 and has been holding right around that mark most of the day. Truth be told, I would not be the least bit surprised to this game end with a final total of 185. Hah.

Fantasy Advice

This is really more of an injury column today, since last night's 2-game slate didn't provide much fodder.

Randy Foye - Mike Miller is expected to miss a few games with a shoulder injury. Foye should see increased time and increased shots, and should be a nice source of points and 3's.

Tyreke Evans/Beno Udrih - With Kevin Martin going down for at least 6 weeks in Sacramento, the two feature guards in the Kings' lineup should get a large boost. Though, really, the shots that Martin took will get spread around. Jason Thompson, who appeared in this fantasy section recently, will see a few more shots, as will Spencer Hawes. These two guards, though, will see the biggest change in minutes, and I want everyone to keep an eye on who picks up the slack in the typical guard categories.

TNT Week Two: The Chuckster Strikes Back

If someone had just told me at 9:30 that the Dallas/New Orleans game would go into overtime, that would have saved me a great deal of strife. As it was, the total came right down to the wire, with a tip-in by Erick Dampier sealing the deal. Dampier, one of the most overpaid players in the NBA, when salary is compared to production, somehow managed two key tip-ins that didn't get Dallas a win, but did ruin our Under.

Around the NBA, we saw why the Lakers are the Lakers, not necessarily destroying the competition, but finding ways to win tough road games without Pau Gasol. It just reminds us how good this team will be when they get the Spaniard back. Are they better than the Nuggets this season? Not yet, no question about it, as Denver just continues to plaster their competition, but give the Lakers some time to work out the kinks, and I think we may be looking at another epic Western Conference Finals.

And in less relevant news, the Indiana Pacers woke up against the defenseless Knicks. We'll find out soon if it was a one-night fix, or a long-term metaphorical "jump-shot alarm clock."

Sports Wagering

Cavs/Bulls - Cleveland is currently favored by 11.5 points, a line that just begs us to take the dog. To this point, the public is backing the Cavs at this monster line, which is a nice break for those of us considering the Bulls. That being said, Chicago's infirmary does throw a little wrench into our plans to hop on 11.5 points and ride it to victory -- without Tyrus Thomas patrolling the lane on defense, Chicago is going to have all kinds of issues stopping the competent half of Cleveland's roster. Joakim Noah guarding Shaq WITHOUT HELP sounds rather unpleasant for the former Gator, too. The total is set at 191.5, which feels pretty accurate, since Chicago is going to take every opportunity to push the tempo, while Cleveland is going to try to turn this thing into a half-court game. I think Cleveland dictates the tempo for a greater portion of the game than Chicago, but I expect this game to go a lot like Chicago's game in Boston. They're likely to give up 100 points, so can they score 90+ by themselves? Obviously, Cleveland's defense is good, but not in the same League as the Celtics, and Chicago can likely take advantage of some slight quickness edges in the paint. When all that comes together, I think we see a total just below the posted mark, but I don't believe the edge is strong enough to make a wager.

Jazz/Spurs - Two solid games on TNT tonight, with a late contest in Utah finishing the double-dish. The line opened with the Jazz favored by a point and has steadily moved in a straight flip to the Jazz being 1 point dogs. Basically, this game is a pick. The Spurs haven't looked fully comfortable on the road, and Utah hasn't looked impressive at home or on the road. Normally, Utah is reliable on their home court, but lost their last home game to a Houston team playing above themselves. Then, when it looked like the Jazz might get it together on the road, Dirk Nowitzki uncorked his 29-point 4th quarter to bury them. I would lean San Antonio in this one based on previous results, but in a game expected to be this close, you really need to be confident before picking a side. The total is currently at 197, and slowly moving up despite, amazingly, slight public money on the Under. I think we'll see changes in how the money moves over the next few hours, but with the way San Antonio has been playing (a much quicker pace than in years past), I don't think 200 combined points is crazy, at all. I lean Over.

Fantasy Sports

NOT Allen Iverson - Do not be seduced by his 18 point, 7 assist effort last night. It came at the expense of the worst defense in the NBA. Iverson will go back to being a pain in the ass and taking ill-advised shots that disrupt the offense.

Jason Thompson - I admit, I picked this guy up before posting this note, just in case any opponents get some bright ideas. Thompson, when he can stay out of foul trouble, is going to be a 16-10 type of guy, and should rack up a couple steals and a couple blocks from time to time, as well. Most people (myself included) thought Spencer Hawes would be the sleeper pick on Sacramento, but it's turning out to be Thompson.

Brendan Haywood - I saw him dropped in a handful of Leagues after one bad game, but Haywood is the Wizards ONLY inside presence, and it looks like he's finally figuring out how to stay in the game for 25-30 minutes consistently. He's over 7-feet tall and mildly athletic. You can expect 10 and 10 from him on most nights with, I would think, 2 blocks a night. His rebounds will decrease when Jamison comes back, as Antawn has a nose for boards, but Haywood is a more than serviceable fantasy center this year.

A Well-Oiled German Machine

I am without League Pass, and I cry daily. Luckily, last night, ESPN2 offered bonus coverage of the final couple minutes of the Mavs/Jazz game, and I was able to see the conclusion of one of the most electrifying displays of offensive prowess in NBA history. Dirk Nowitzki, after being held to just 11 points through the first 3 quarters, got some sort of schnitzel injected directly into his veins, and the rest is history -- well, Mavericks history, at least. In 12 minutes of game time, the German sensation scored 29 points, and was at the helm of a 26 point 4th quarter swing.

See, this is why I'm just gaga over the NBA. I have a schoolgirl infatuation with people flying through the air, falling, contorting, and somehow while all that is going on, having the presence of mind and motor function to flip a little ball into a hoop. It's just remarkable! On any given night, we could be treated to gravity-defiance; if that doesn't make you want to watch sports, well, then I'm just farther out of touch than I realized.

Sports Wagering

Raptors/Pistons - Raptors by 8 with a total of 194. The Pistons are coming off a fine home win over the Magic last night, but I don't think this is one of those scenarios where the momentum carries over. This feels more like the Pistons gave every ounce of strength they had in the ol' strength-tank, and now have to get their butts to Canada (though admittedly, Detroit to Toronto is a 1 hour flight) for a tough road test. I think this line is pretty fair, and I expect, like usual, to see the public on the fave and the sharps on the dog, though we won't know until tonight who gets the win. I strongly believe this game ends with the Raptors winning by a margin somewhere between 5 and 11, so I'm not sure I'd suggest a side. The Under has some value here, since the Pistons are going to try to slow this game to an ugly, hideous crawl. They have about 1/5 the scoring the Raptors do (partially due to injury, partially due to roster), and the Pistons will turn this thing into a possession game. Slight lean to the Under.

Magic/Suns - Both teams on the caboose end of a back-to-back, though Phoenix picked up a solid win in Miami, and Orlando sleepwalked through a loss in Detroit. This is another of those interesting situations where the road team actually had the easier travel schedule the night before, staying well within the confines of Florida, and feeling good after a dominant 4th quarter the night before. The total here is 218.5, and I'd avoid it, given the Magic shot the ball very, very poorly last night, and I'd rather not bank on them getting their touch back in under 24 hours. I do like getting 8 points with the high-flying Suns -- they can score, and when you can get points, you're never out of a game. Steve Nash is playing his ass off right now, and the Magic are still without Rashard Lewis. Dwight Howard should have a 20-20 night, but it won't matter when this thing is decided by 6 points. Slight lean to Phoenix.

Wizards/Heat - Another pair of teams in the "home-half" (to use a baseball term) of a back-to-back, though both of these clubs are coming off a loss. The question we need to ask before wagering on this game is...are the Heat due for a couple poor games, or was last night's awful 4th quarter just a 12-minute anomaly? I believe the Heat put up a good fight tonight. Dwyane Wade is not the type of player to sit and sulk after a bad one -- if you can do a mathematically absurd commercial where you fall 7 times and get up 8 (you all remember this ad, I hope -- the math implies Wade STARTED his journey lying on the floor), then you can certainly get back up after bowing down to Steve Nash. Wade should absolutely toast the Washington defense, and I think Miami's tough-as-nails defense this year should work significantly better on a Washington squad that is clearly one Jamison short of relevance. The current line is Washington -2, and I'd lean Miami to win this thing straight up, though you can certainly take the points if it makes you feel more secure. A total of 193.5 seems fair.

Nets/Nuggets - Last night's Nuggets/Pacers game was a laugher. It seemed like the line was too low, to suggest perhaps the Nuggets were due for an off night, but such was not the case, and tonight, despite being in the midst of a back-to-back, the Nugs are laying 9 points in Jersey. That's a ton of points on the road, but the Nuggets are probably the best team in the West right now, so we're getting a pretty fair number. The health status of Devin Harris is obviously concern number one, and with his current groin strain likely keeping him out until next weekend, I find it tough to believe the Nets can score more than 85 even in this likely up-tempo game. I don't usually advocate laying 9 points on the road, but the Nuggets might be a "play until they fail" team here at the start of the season. The total of 199 is another one of those cop-out sort of numbers, where oddsmakers just figure it'll land near 200. Can the Nets score enough to get this total near 200 points? I'm not convinced. I believe this game ends with the Nuggets winning 107-85 or thereabouts, so I do have a slight lean to the Under.

Knicks/Pacers - The Pacers have been a complete failure thus far, shooting some unholy percentages and getting pasted even in their home building. I am avoiding this team, as they will break out at some point, and then it's time to ride the Over train until the books adjust. For the time being, Knicks lay 5.5 at home with a total of 223, and I wouldn't touch this game with someone ELSE'S money. The best bet among the 4 standard possibilities would probably have to be the Knicks to cover, but again, wouldn't advise it at all.

Wolves/Celtics - Here's another outrageous road line, with the Celtics laying 12 in Minnesota with a total of 186. It's always interesting to see such large spreads with such low totals. Oddsmakers think Boston is going to win this thing by holding the Wolves to low-80's, and I think that's completely possible. Later in the season, I'd say JUMP on Minnesota, but since we're still early in the year, it's really not safe to bet against Boston. They're on a mission, home and road, to hold teams to season-lows in points. Just look at their margin of victory in each of their games! The Celtics are 5-0 this year with margins of 6, 33, 28, 10, 31. Can you really take a huge dog and expect them to cover? I don't think so. This is either Boston or nothing, and the total seems a little high, given Boston is on the second half of a back-to-back, and Minnesota has the firepower of a potato gun.

Rockets/Lakers - A lot of story lines in this one. The Rockets pushed the Lakers to the brink last year in the playoffs, then of course the offseason swap of small forwards. Ron-Ron returns to Houston, the one city he didn't leave a turd of a lasting impression. Trevor Ariza gets to face his old team as the secondary scorer in an offense that SOMEHOW finds a way to score points. Aaron Brooks should have a field day in this one, since the Lakers used Ariza to guard him in the playoffs last year, and they don't really have an option this season. Thus, we find ourselves with the Rockets as 1.5 point dogs. You can bet your most precious family member that the public is going to be betting the Lakers like you wouldn't believe, and this seems like a prime fade spot on paper. Kobe's health is a key issue. He was battling the flu last night in an OT affair, but Kobe has a way of lighting up opponents when you least expect it. I lean Rockets, but at the same time, Lakers are a decent road bet, so...in any case, the total here is set at 202, which I believe is FAR too high for a game you just know both teams are going to dig in and try to win to make a statement.

Hornets/Mavericks - I'm not really sure what the Hornets have done to make them 4 point favorites in this one, but here we are. The Mavericks ARE coming off a wild home comeback over the Jazz, so this is a trademark let-down spot for Dallas, but at the same time, are the Hornets really good enough to lay more than a point or two to any Western Conference potential playoff team? This line has a motive, I'm sure of it. We'll watch it move, but I can guarantee the expectation of a sleepy game from Dirk after his heroic one last night, and until Josh Howard gets back for Dallas, if Dirk ain't there, the team will fall. The total is set at 189.5, which looks awfully low for the Mavs, but I believe it's right on the money. Dallas is concentrating on defense more than usual this year, and the Hornets know they won't be outscoring many teams. I think this game ends with a total right near 187, too close for me to recommend a play on the Under, but certainly the better of the two choices.

Kings/Hawks - Atlanta continues their Pacific Ocean Magical Mystery Tour, 1-1 so far after a VERY impressive road win over the suddenly struggling Trailblazers. Tonight, they lay 5.5 to the worst team in the NBA. The Kings had to go to OT to get their first win of the season, barely nipping Memphis in, potentially, their most entertaining game of the season -- oh, and I'm not talking about "so far", I'm talking about the WHOLE season, so if you missed it, you may want to start following a different team...but I kid. This one should be interesting. The Hawks are finishing up a back-to-back, though the travel was minimal, coming down from Portland to Sacramento, and they've been on pacific time for a few days now. Also, it's far too early in the season to think a fairly young team like the Hawks is going to get winded. That being said, Portland does play a physical game, and going from a tough game to a supposedly easy one can be an emotional soft spot. I think Atlanta has enough to prove on the road where they'll give a decent effort, and should be able to take this game by 8 points. The total of 208 might be just slightly below the end result, with my capping showing Atlanta coming through with a 110-102 victory. Slight leans to the Hawks and the Over, right along with senor publico.

Warriors/Grizzlies - The Warriors are favored by 6 points despite being 0-2 on the season. The total is a beastly 224, and climbing. Oddsmakers think Memphis's porous defense is just what the doctor ordered for a team that remains in complete disarray. True, the Warriors do play significantly better on their home court (though that is most likely due to both their comfort at home as well as opposing team's disdain for one of the crummiest facilities in the NBA). I'll be perfectly frank: I don't have a great read on the Warriors yet, a team made up of a few recognizable names, a handful of D-League promotions, a nutcase, and first round pick Stephen Curry. Memphis is going to be competitive this year, or at least more than in years past, which makes me think that oddsmakers feel the Warriors will take advantage of one of their early winnable games. No recommendations on this one.

Fantasy Sports

Luol Deng - Not that you could possibly pry him off of whoever drafted him, but Deng posted a 20-20 game yesterday. Keep an eye on him, wait for his value to DROP, then work on acquiring him. His scoring might drop, though, once John Salmons finds his stroke. He is another prime buy-low candidate, shooting just 28% in the early-going, so you know darn well his current scoring average of just over 10 should easily climb to 15 or 16 when he starts making his shots.