Baron Davis is Dead to Me

Yesterday was one of those nights where I would have been much happier to not watch the games.

In the early play, the Pacers let the Bulls by 4-to-12 points for almost the entire game before laying down in the 4th quarter, and getting outscored by 13 in the final 12 minutes.

In the mid-evening play, the Nuggets killed the Mavs - easy winner, no discussion needed.

In the late play, the Clippers lead the Jazz by as many as 12-points early in the 3rd quarter, and getting 5.5 points as an underdog, things looked pretty good. But like the Pacers before them, the Clippers got outscored by 14 in the final quarter, and with a chance to cut the Jazz lead to just 4 with a minute to go, Baron Davis missed, I kid you not, an UNCONTESTED fast-break layup. The Jazz immediately came back with a Boozer dunk, and the deficit was 8.

As I said in the blog last night, if you sent me into the 4th quarter with all 3 of my teams covering every night, I would take that every night. We just got hit with some bad luck, and that's going to happen from time to time. I know you all put your trust in me to find the best values out there, and I hope you'll continue to ride with me despite one unlucky day. You guys know how much time and effort I will put into the card every day, but once the game tips, it's out of our control, and even a good value play only wins 55% of the time. We just happened to get 2 of the unluckiest of those 45/100 losses out of the way in the span of 4 hours.

Sports Wagering

Heat @ Hawks - Hawks by 7.5 with a total of 190.5. Good grief. Actually, I might start a few of the write-ups with that same 2-word sentence. Two teams on back-to-back; two teams coming off nice wins (Miami at home, Atlanta on the road), and two teams playing their final game before the All Star break. These teams have played twice, and each time the home team beat the pants off the other at home. Without going into too much detail on all the reasons I find this side unbettable, I just don't feel like either team has a strong advantage, situationally. Miami has been much, much worse on back-to-backs than the more athletic Hawks, but we all know how streaky the Heat can be, so they might very well put up another incredible defensive show in this one like they did last night to the Rockets. I think, based on recent perception of these teams, the Heat are getting some line value (maybe a point, 1.5 max), so I suppose you could say I have a (yes, a new name for it) "theoretical" lean to the Heat. Miami has been horrible at scoring on back-to-back, and this team knows their only chance of winning is to play solid defense. Atlanta has been slowing the tempo more lately than early this season as teams have adjusted to their style of play, and I see Atlanta winning this home game 97-89. I lean Under.

Sixers @ Raptors - Toronto by 7 with a total of 208.5. Beware the steamtrain! The 76ers have won, and covered, 4 straight games, and this last win, yesterday, was a blowout of the red-hot Timberwolves. And unfortunately, that blowout drew too much attention to the Sixers streak. The Raptors continue to play very well at home, taking advantage of a Sacramento meltdown for another home win and cover, but at the same time, Toronto has almost no line value right now. They played well for over a month, the public has caught on, and they are now a team where the situation has to be just perfect to back them. I don't believe this spot is perfect. Philadelphia is notoriously GOOD on the second half of back-to-backs, currently 8-3 ATS, and seemingly not suffering from the usual levels of fatigue. Those 2 extra points they get on the back-to-back are going right in the bank of value. Moreover, Toronto beat Philadelphia IN Philly, and because of the Sixers strength on the road, I think they most certainly keep this one close. Lean to Philly. The total, well, I just have to look at the Over - Toronto plays a quick tempo and shoots well at home, while Philly is going to a crazy-fast style.

Bucks @ Nets - This line is OFF. Is Milwaukee overvalued right now? You bet your ass they are. A lot of folks at Pregame are very sharp, as evidenced by the fact that I personally saw at least 2 or 3 guys note that the line on the Detroit game was inflated. Okay, so maybe the 12-point outright loss wasn't fully expected, but courtesy of the Bucks righteous ATS win-streak, they are no longer a value, and only worth playing, in my opinion, when they're going up against stronger competition, or teams that are more overvalued than they are. This is definitely not one of those games. The Nets are consistently getting an extra 1-2 points of line value because of the public's perception that they are terrible -- not far from the truth, really, but it does allow oddsmakers to deflate the Nets lines and still get 50/50 money on the game. We forget sometimes that the books aren't trying to "sucker" you on most games, and even the games we call "traps" only appear that way because books know they can set a line the wrong way, and the discrepancy between the size of sharp and public money will balance the books. The Nets are on double revenge here, but we've talked about how that doesn't really matter for a bad team like Jersey. This is another spot where I don't particularly like the Nets to play a strong game, but I think that when the line comes out they'll be getting more points than they should - lean to Jersey, and while the Nets are starting to play a little faster, and Milwaukee is going to play some poorer than average defense on the back-to-back, I think I lean Over.

Kings @ Pistons - Detroit by 3.5 with a total of 197.5. Strong effort from the Pistons in Milwaukee; strong effort from the Kings in New York. These are two underrated teams butting heads in their final game before the break, and honestly, there's no good way to look at this one. The real important note here is that due to the Kings going to OT at Madison Square Garden, this line will likely jump to 4.5 or 5, SO, while I don't have a lean to either side, feel free to look at a middle. Detroit -3.5 now, Sacramento plus the points later? It's worth a look. That total looks pretty high for a Pistons game, but I think oddsmakers have elevated it slightly with both teams likely tired and less likely to be focused on defense. I don't know if that's true. The Kings are terrible offensively on the road and worse on back-to-backs, and the Pistons would want to slow it down MORE if they're feeling sleepy. I actually lean Under, believe it or not. I know guys, that was the world's shortest write-up, so feel free to add to it with your own notes, but being that this card is immense, I figure, why waste time and energy on a game that I have almost no chance of legitimately picking a side? Check out that middle.

Magic @ Bulls - Orlando by 4 with a total of 193. This line strikes me as odd. I know the Bulls have come on strong, but given Chicago is the team here on the back-to-back, oddsmakers are trying to tell me that Orlando would be a TWO point favorite in Chicago without the Bulls playing last night? That seems way too simple. It's not like a Chicago win would surprise that many folks. The Bulls beat the Magic the last time Orlando came to town, winning outright as a 3.5-point underdog. I just wonder, though, if we're giving the public too much credit, and their short term memory is going to take over. The Bulls are just 4-8 ATS on back-to-back spots, so I'm not really sure why this line is seemingly begging us to take Orlando. The Magic have been winning games but failing to cover, and by setting this line nice and low, it indicates to me that oddsmakers think this one is going down to the wire. The match-ups are just a disaster for Chicago, especially with their team all banged up, and I hate to be mister square here, since I would love to take a home dog, but I lean Orlando. The total is pretty accurate, I feel, though I feel like Chicago is going to try to push the ball a little, and get into their offense before Dwight Howard can set his roots in the paint. Still, both teams pride themselves on defense, and they're going to want to flex some muscle - I lean Under.

Celtics @ Hornets - This line is OFF. I would assume this is the case because of Paul Pierce potentially returning, but time will tell. The true issue here is that Boston has been a mess lately. They've lost 3 straight ATS, and though they did win 3 straight games SU before the loss to Orlando on Sunday, Boston is just 1-9 ATS this year when following an upset loss as a favorite. I suppose we'll see if that holds up here. I prefer to back the Hornets on the road without Chris Paul, since they're getting that 6-point swing. And for the record, I wrote that sentence BEFORE looking up the following stat: the Hornets have covered their last 6 road games, but have failed to cover their last 6 home games. Conversely, the road is really the only I'm willing to back the Celtics for the same reason. They have found a way to win against the weaker teams, but covering the large home spreads has become almost impossible. I also feel that the loss the Hornets suffered to Orlando might carry over into this game. They played their butts off for almost every moment of that game, and just could not quite overcome Vince Carter's best game since 2006 and strong performances from Dwight Howard and Rashard Lewis. It can be pretty frustrating for a team to lead the entire game, then get run off the floor late. I believe the Celtics are going to want to grab this game going into the All Star Break, and while I do believe the spread is going to favor Boston by 2-4 points, I actually believe they can cover it, since I just don't see the Hornets putting together another performance as strong as the ones in Charlotte and Orlando. I lean Boston, and I lean to the Under, since folks are going to see that colossal Hornets total from the last game, and we're going to get a few points of line value on the Under.

Bobcats @ Timberwolves - Charlotte by 2.5 with a total of 200. Timberwolves got spanked last night, there's no way around it. I tend to like fading teams off a loss that snaps a win streak, as I feel like maybe that crushing defeat in Philadelphia might derail the Wolves just a little, but at the same time, the Wolves are still the line value play. The Bobcats (1-5 ATS against the Northwest) are no longer an underappreciated team, and that makes them a tougher play. They squeezed out a SU win last night against Washington, but lost their 3rd of 4 against the spread. I'm just not sure Charlotte is a team we can trust right now, especially going into the All Star break; but on the flip side, I don't like the Wolves as a "bounceback" team. They're very young, looking forward to some time off, and coming off an ugly game in Philly. I don't like a side in this one, but I do like the Over. Minnesota is going nuts with the pace, and the Bobcats are going to be too tired and too focused on the week off to worry about stopping anyone. We saw last night how Minnesota got killed by the Sixers, but still managed to get into a running match. If they scored the ball, that game would have gone over by 25. At home, I think Minnesota hits those jumpers again, and I think this one ends with a final total of 203.

Lakers @ Jazz - This line is OFF. I hope Kobe plays. This is going to be a damn fine game if he does. Might be fun even if he doesn't, but you know those Jazz fans are ready to go nuts for a Lakers game. I'm not sure it's a great game to bet on, as both teams have won the home meeting this year, and the Lakers role-players might start to run out of steam, but it should be a great show. The Lakers have been impressive without their star, winning with very strong defensive efforts in Portland and then at home against the Spurs, but this is going to be a brand new kind of task. The Jazz had to play their butts off against the Clippers last night to get the cover, but this team has a rare and unique style of play and tired or not, they are a brutal match-up. They've now won 9 straight, and none of those wins by fewer than 7 points. I think the early value here is going to continue to be on the Lakers, at least until we hear about Kobe. Utah is in a tough spot, and while the home crowd will fuel them, they should be a tad tired, and I just wonder how the adrenaline is going to work for Utah. I have to believe they come out strong, as most teams do against the Lakers, but will they wane as the game goes on? Utah is a strong 6-2 ATS on back-to-backs, so I think the Jazz system should keep them right there for a win all night long. Still, because I believe the line will come out soft, I lean Lakers, who should be getting a couple points. I have no idea what the total is going to be. The Lakers have been playing such strong defense without Kobe, but will Utah's up-tempo style change this game around?

Blazers @ Suns - Phoenix by 8 with a total of 210.5. This one might be accurate, and feels like a huge mismatch. The Suns are storming right now, playing with confidence and playing with a sense of purpose on every possession. They are also playing on 4 days of rest, so those tired old legs of Grant Hill will be ready for a strong performance. On the other side, the Blazers have to travel a good distance for the second half of a back-to-back, and while Portland is 9-3 ATS in back-to-backs, this team looks decidedly tired right now, getting steamrolled by the Kobe-less Lakers, and then last night got severely outplayed by Oklahoma City in the 4th quarter. It seems like there's a bit of a book on how to guard this team with Roy out, and clubs are really forcing the Blazers to beat them with a ton of jumpshots. I just don't know if Portland can keep up for all 4 quarters with this lineup. Their defense isn't what it used to be with all the big men out, and they don't have a go-to guy on offense. I mean, I realize it's another square lean, but I just have to look at Phoenix here. The total here feels a little high, given Phoenix is actually playing some minor defense, so I lean Under. I know, Phoenix and Under, it almost seems like heresy, but hey, that's how it is.

Clippers @ Warriors - This line is OFF. I'm having trouble looking at the Clippers right now after Baron Davis ruined a cover for us last night, but hey, they're playing, so we need to break it down. Even if this game could be the ugliest on the card, and there are some ugly ones. I'm not really sure why someone would want to bet this game, though. The Clippers have been terrible on the road, and the Warriors have been terrible everywhere, clearly tiring as the huge minutes for their top 3-4 guys is starting to catch up with them. If anything, you're looking at a great opportunity to drop some money on another Stephen Curry prop bet, since he's the last man standing in injury-town. This is a revenge game for the Warriors from when the Clippers beat them senseless here in Oakland back in November, but the hapless Warriors are another of those teams where revenge isn't a real issue, not with only a few healthy bodies, and only 1 worth playing. You couldn't pay me to pick a side in this mess. I do think there should be some value on the Under, as the Warriors continue to tire late, and the Clippers are going to be suffering after blowing the game against the Jazz. I know often fatigue leads to bad defense, but for a team like the Clippers that operates in the post a lot and doesn't do much on defense anyway, I think they might suffer shooting the ball more than defending. I lean Under.

The Rare 45-Point Cover

Last night was like an advertisement for an antiperspirant!

It's not every night you get a 45-point cover, but when it happens, it is really something sweet. I've been feeling good since the end of the 1st quarter of that Magic-Hornets game when I already knew the tempo was going to send the game Over. I didn't know both teams would shoot 55% and it would go Over with 9 minutes left, but it sure was sweet when it did.

That Paid Play winner moves us to 11-5 on our last 16 Premium Plays, and 23-13 on our last 36, two streaks that I am very proud of, not just because they're both strong winning trends, but because folks can see that winning comes in both the short and long term, and that NBA is very much a beatable sport!

Today, we have 11 NBA games to work with, and I must say, I'm seeing a few games that really look juicy. Let's get to it.

Sports Wagering

Nets @ Cleveland - This line is OFF. But it is going to make some noise when it comes out. Look out below! I would say that considering the Cavs have won 11 straight games and covered 7 of those 11, and the Nets are the worst team in the NBA (though they're 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 while going 1-6 SU), this line is going to be huge. And to be perfectly frank, I believe the value is squarely on the Nets, despite the Cavs recent ability, seemingly, to blow out everyone by the 6 minute mark of the 2nd quarter. The thing I like the most is that Cleveland has a game with the Magic after this contest with Jersey. If ever there were a time when the King might take the foot off the accelerator after a strong 1st quarter, this is that game. They know they don't have to give 100% to beat the Nets, especially in Cleveland, and I think Jersey is going to be getting so many points (especially without Devin Harris, likely hurt again), that the back door is going to be WIDE open on this game. The Nets are on some sort of double-revenge, though, as I've noted before, when you have a team that doesn't expect to ever beat the other, there's no such thing as "revenge." I do think, as our buddy Sac pointed out, that the lesser time is prone to retool their attack method, and the Nets have actually competed at a decent clip against the Cavs, losing games by 10 and 8, respectively, and covering in both. I lean Jersey on the side. On the total, both games so far this year have gone Under, with both teams shooting under 40% in the last game. I think this one ends right around 188-90, so let's see what line we get to work with.

Wizards @ Bobcats - This line is OFF. This is a bad spot for the Wizards. Allow me to explain. First, the Bobcats are in their second game home off a long road trip. They had the letdown game, and lost to the surging Hornets with a very slow, sluggish second half. They should be ready to bounce back in this one, so there's point number one for Charlotte. The second key note is that the Wizards are coming off a colossal upset win over the Magic. This is a bit of a letdown spot, playing a lesser team after the chunky emotional high the Wizards likely experienced after picking up the nice "W" in Florida. This year, off an upset win, the Magic are just 1-9 ATS the following game. Third key note, this is the Wizards' final game before the All Star break. They do not play on Wednesday or Thursday, so the guys have a full week off after this one. If that's not bad enough for the guys looking ahead to spending a week with family, how about the fact they have to play this final game before the break on the road. This, to me, is a lot like how marvelous playing home teams before the baseball All Star break works. Yes, the Bobcats play two more times before the break, so they're not going to be in look-ahead mode, and yes, that's another reason I like Charlotte. The one reason to back off of the Bobcats here is revenge. Charlotte murdered the Wizards back in late November, 92-76, a game that went way under the posted total. I fear the Wizards may be in a bad spot here, and despite the revenge factor, I just don't know if they can get it done. I lean Charlotte, and I lean Under, since a Charlotte tempo is a slow tempo.

Wolves @ Sixers - Philly by 6.5 with a total of 204.5. These two teams are both red-hot right now, leading into the Break. Both teams have won 4 straight games SU, and while Philly has covered 3 straight, Minny has covered 4 in a row. Interestingly, too, of the 8 combined straight up wins for these two clubs, 6 of those 8 games have gone over the posted total. So they're winning, and they're winning with offense. My take on the side is as such: the Sixers have won 3 of those 4 games on the road, where they continue to be one of the League's finest road ATS plays. Philly is 16-10 ATS on the road, but just 6-18 ATS at home. I just can't bring myself to trust Philly to cover 6.5 points at home against anyone, not even the Timberwolves. Especially not right now, while Minny is truly playing with outrageous confidence! I watched every second of the Wolves games against the Mavs and Grizzlies (we cashed both), and not only was Minnesota hitting their shots, aside from about 2-3 stretches in both games where they just stagnated offensively, they were running the TRIANGLE offense, and making it work. I have to admit, I was floored at how smooth they looked. I realize that winning solves a lot of problems, and confidence can do a ton for a team that doesn't play any defense, but the combination of Al Jefferson and Kevin Love inside, with the resurgent Ramon Sessions slashing into the lane and Ryan Gomes and Corey Brewer hitting 3's, this team is winning. The only angle that is a little concerning is the revenge - Minnesota beat Philly up in the Twin Cities 3 weeks ago. Still, I think that was a sign of the match-up problems the Wolves pose for Philly - I lean Minnesota on the side, and I just have to like the Over until one of these teams decides to play some defense. The tempo of both teams lately is so fast that it will take a 40% shooting night from both teams to keep the game under.

Bulls @ Pacers - Indiana by 1.5 with a total of 202. I like Indiana right now. That doesn't mean I want to bet them every game, but I like them because they're somewhat predictable - the handicappers greatest ally, especially for a low-tier team. We know the public is going to look at the Bulls first, because, well, Chicago bettors love their team, and the Bulls have name recognition: Derrick Rose, in particular. So, Chicago comes to town off a win over the tumbling Miami Heat. Did that tell us anything, though? Chicago is banged up, and equilibrating somewhat after that exceptional road trip through half of the Western Conference. They won 5 straight on that trip, lost 3 after it ended, then just won 1, but really, I wasn't too impressed with the win over the Heat, and I think Miami gets a bigger test here in Indiana than most people expect. The Pacers have suddenly become a very home-friendly club, winning each of their last 2 home games in blowout fashion, but got crushed on the road on either side of those 2 games. They're not playing any close ones, that's one thing we can say for certain. And unless Chicago holds a team meeting where Del Negro calls his boys out (and I don't see that happening the week before the All Star break), I think the Pacers should win this one going away. It's also a revenge spot for Indiana, for what it's worth; and Chicago hosts Orlando tomorrow, so a potential look-ahead spot for the Bulls. On the total, I think it's interesting that the first meeting had a posted mark of 193, went over (199), and this one opened 3 points higher. That, to me, is a relatively beefy indicator that oddsmakers think the Pacers will control the tempo - I lean Over, even though Chicago has been playing some clunkers lately. Stronger lean on the side, though.

Rockets @ Heat - This line is OFF. Other than the revenge angle, this game, to me, is a handicapper's nightmare. These are two of the most inconsistent teams in the entire NBA, and now they get to play each other! Miami did beat up on Houston down in Texas back on January 15th (115-106), so the Rockets will likely want to get a little revenge here, and I believe they couldn't find the Heat at a better time. Miami has suffered through a season-high 5-game losing streak, and they're just 1-4 ATS during that stretch, covering as an underdog in Boston. Otherwise, and really, even in that game, it has been VERY ugly. Miami has not been scoring, posting totals in the 80's in 3 of those 5 games, and 91 points in the 4th. In fact, they broke 100 against Boston, who, for whatever reason chose not to play defense for one day, but if you eliminate that game in Beantown, Miami is averaging just 85.5 points in the other 4 games. They haven't been rebounding or defending either, allowing AT LEAST 95 points in every game in this streak, including 102 to Cleveland and 107 to Boston. I just cannot stress enough how terribly ugly it has been. Have they bottomed out? I'm not sure, but I don't think there has been an obvious "rock bottom", at least not yet. Miami plays in Atlanta tomorrow, so even if this game is close, that could be the embarrassment they need to wake up, just in time for an All Star break. Houston, interestingly, looked like they were snapping out of a funk of their own with a home blowout over the Warriors and a road blowout over the Grizz, but then came back home and got stomped by the Sixers. I want to chalk that loss up to playing on zero rest (Rockets are 4-9 ATS on back-to-backs), and say that with 2 days of rest going into this one, they should be able to hang tough. I lean to Houston in this battle of tiring middling clubs. I also lean to the Under, as I can't play a Miami-over until they show they can break 90 consistently.

Kings @ Knicks - New York by 5 with a total of 212. Can the Kings be trusted right now? I don't believe so. Sure, they may be a team with some "value", but if they're just not playing well, then it almost doesn't matter how many points they're getting on a "fair line", since they're getting blasted by at least 3-5 over the spread every single night, it seems. Maybe that's a bit of an exaggeration, seeing as how they did cover 2 in a row in Denver and at home to the Spurs, but they've gone back to losing big since those ATS wins. This is a team that, right now, is losing almost every single game straight up. So, if you're looking at taking Sactown, you have to be considering the idea that they can lose by less than the spread. And in a game where the line is just 5, it's hard for me to play a team that I just don't feel can win the game outright. The Kings, and prepare yourself for a mind-bending stat, are 2-18 in their last 20 games. That is Nets territory. And the most crushing part is that they were actually beating the Raptors soundly entering the 4th quarter on Sunday before cracking off another of their nearly-patented 4th quarter meltdowns, and losing by 11. Can they bounce back? Maybe. But I'm not going to be the lunatic that tries to play a carnival game with the Kings, and pick the one game out of every 10 that they win outright. This one is Knicks or nothing. So, is it Knicks or nothing, you're asking? The Knicks haven't been terribly impressive either, though, after falling behind by 20 early to the Cavs, they rallied to cover that one. This is their final game before the All Star break, and I just wonder if they're going to mail this one in. I'm leaning towards a Pass on the side, and with neither team really focused, I think the Over might have some legs.

Hawks @ Grizzlies - This line is OFF. This strikes me as the game where the Grizzlies wake back up. I'm not sure if it's the level of competition that is somewhat more inspiring, but I just have a gut feeling Memphis breaks out of their mini-slump to put together a strong game here. It might have a little something to do with the Hawks recent and long-term history, too. Atlanta beat Memphis by 13 back on December 16th, in Atlanta, while wildly outplaying the Grizz. Memphis had 20 turnovers in that game, and when all was said and done took 17 fewer shots than Atlanta! You're rarely going to win like that, unless you're taking 30 more free throws than your opponent, which Memphis most certainly did not. I don't think Atlanta is going to pick on Memphis again. The Grizz have come so far, and they're sitting right on the cusp of a playoff berth, and they definitely realize how important every game is, especially against the teams that they want to stack up against, the barometer effect, so to speak. Atlanta has also been pretty terrible on the road lately, and very, very strong at home. It's a nice blend for bettors, since the public is going to see Atlanta winning (and covering) at home, then forget that Atlanta has lost their last 3 on the road - those games were against tough teams (Spurs, Magic, Thunder), but they got beat pretty soundly in all 3. It's a bit of a dangerous call, since this is Memphis's final game before the All Star break, but they strike me as the type of young team that wants to go into the layoff with positive momentum, and Atlanta has a home date with the rival Heat tomorrow, too. I lean Memphis on the side, and I believe this total will be slightly inflated because of the slight misconception that these teams never play defense. That's not to say I lean Under, but I do think there may be 1-2 points of value beneath the line.

Pistons @ Bucks - Milwaukee by 8 with a total of 189.5. Yikes, how things have changed this year. Who would have thought, really, in 2005, that 5 years later the mighty Pistons would be getting 8 points in Milwaukee? A devastating time for the city of Detroit, and its fans, with the Lions still awful, the Tigers melting down, and so forth. At least they've got their Wings. Anyway, back to the game at hand -- I think the reason this line strikes us as so high is because it probably is a tad high. The Bucks are starting to get some credit, as well they should. Milwaukee is a ridiculous 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games, so it shouldn't surprise anyone that they're suddenly laying big points at home, where they're exceptionally tough. The Bucks are coming off a 12-point win over the Pacers as a 7-point home favorite, so they're not at all opposed to winning by double digits, but with both teams having won the previous home meeting, and the Pistons, supposedly, getting better every game, this is not a good time to fade Detroit. The Pistons are just finally getting all their injured pieces back, and as they start to come together as a team, chemistry-wise, they should be able to rattle off a few covers in a row. It's just a bit of a mystery when it's going to happen. So, in this game, do you back the white-hot Milwaukee team and go with the "ride the wave" approach, or back the Pistons, assuming they're a team on the upswing and getting 1-2 points of value? Or neither. I'm leaning towards a pass right now, though strong line movement might sway me. This total looks awfully low, too, since I think Milwaukee is going to try to play a little faster in this one and get Detroit out of their comfort zone. I lean Over, but barely.

Mavericks @ Nuggets - This line is OFF. This is a Denver play or nothing at all. I love that the Nuggets are coming home off a loss in Utah, since it should create just enough value to make this game playable. I also love that the Mavs are coming into the altitude on a back-to-back, a situation where they WON earlier this year, but this time are coming from the West coast, a notoriously difficult time zone issue that puts them in their Denver hotel near 4am local time, and gives them less than half a day to get a night of rest, try to gameplan for the Nuggets, warm up, deal with the thin air, and then try to sustain a high level of basketball for 48 minutes. Dallas really had to play HARD in Golden State, trailing most of the night before ratcheting up their game in the 4th and take advantage of the vastly overmatched Warriors, who definitely appear to be tiring heading into the All Star break. I must say, though, I like that the Mavs had to play their starters the entire game, and work to come back and hold off Golden State. It didn't help that Monta Ellis squashed his knee on a layup try and couldn't return, but it seems like the Mavs would have won this one either way. Not sure about a cover, but hey, injuries happen, and they happen even more when you're a Warrior. The Nuggets are devastatingly good at home, as they make a push to supplant the Lakers for the best record in the West. Dallas is certainly a better ATS bet on the road than at home, but even against the Warriors their defense left something to be desired, only finally pulling ahead when they were simply able to outgun Golden State with a deeper bench and healthier players. The Nuggets are 22-4 at home SU, and while they should be pretty sizable favorites here (whether or not Billups and Melo play), and I lean to Denver. I also don't see the Nuggets shooting 38% again against the Mavs, and I like the Over.

Thunder @ Blazers - Thunder by 1 with a total of 191. Thunder on revenge? You have to give them a look. I do wish the Blazers were coming off a win against the Lakers, since that would likely have made this line a Pick, but it is what it is, and we'll work with it. Quietly, or maybe not-so-quietly depending on where you live, the Thunder have run out to a beastly 31-19 ATS mark on the season, 18-7 ATS on the road! This team is generally not intimidated by other teams' courts, and that is just huge if they want to become a team to be reckoned with year in and year out. And with Brandon Roy out through the All Star break, we know exactly who we're going to be dealing with in this one. Unfortunately, there isn't much value in the line for the Thunder, coming off 5 straight wins (4-1 ATS), but as we noted above in previous write-ups, sometimes you have to stare the value right in the face and give it the finger. If the Blazers aren't going to show up (they play in Phoenix tomorrow), then the Thunder can destroy them. I'm inclined to believe this game comes down to the wire, because even the games the Thunder lose tend to be within one possession. In fact, going through the games, of the 7 games the Thunder have lost in 2010 (they're 11-7 straight up this year), 3 of those 7 games have been 1-point losses, and 1 game was decided by a bucket. My concern here is that the Thunder will be taking a look ahead to the All Star break, and playing their final game before said Break on the road is not often a good situational spot. I like the revenge, and I like how hard this team plays, but if the team's collective head isn't in the game, this might not go so well. It's a toss-up, and while I do lean Thunder, this one has a strong chance of being a Pass. On the total, I like the Over -- we know the Thunder can score, and the Blazers are a faster team without Roy around. Plus, if the Thunder aren't completely focused, they will suffer in transition defense, and I think we'll see at least a handful of easy buckets.

Jazz @ Clippers - Jazz by 4.5 with a total of 200.5. Like taking candy from a baby, right? Not so fast. The Jazz have absolutely KILLED the Clippers over the last few years, going 7-1 ATS against LAC in the last 8 meetings, spread out over 3 years of basketball. They beat LAC by 13 earlier this season (as in, the 3rd day of the season) in a high-scoring tilt in Utah. They have won 8 straight games, going 6-1-1 ATS in that stretch (or 7-1 if you got this recent Nuggets game at the early line of -8 like we did), and haven't won any of those games in the win streak by fewer than 7 points! Why, guys, is this line only 4.5? Boozer and Williams are both playing for the Jazz, so they're at full strength. The Clippers are healthy, too, but coming off a hideous loss to the Spurs back on Saturday, getting blown out on their home floor by 17. That was the rather standard "first game home" letdown for the Clips, and this is the second game back, where most teams play a much better game. I expect a strong effort from the Clippers, who, as many have forgotten, were actually killing it at home before they had to voyage East on an 8-game road trip. Prior to this trademark letdown loss to the Spurs, the Clippers had actually covered 8 straight home games. And on top of that, the Jazz HOST the Lakers tomorrow in a big game in Utah. Utah is in a look-ahead spot, the Clippers are on revenge and in a bounceback spot in their second game back home, and after the home game with the Lakers, the Jazz head to the All Star break. This is one of those overnight road trips where some guys might just mail it in. I think Utah is a sucker play in this one, and I lean to the Clippers. In terms of the total, Utah has broken 100 in 10 straight games, but I think their focus might be lax on defense, and I just have to look at the Over, since I think the Clippers play them strong and make some shots.

Post-Superbowl NBA Hangover

Wow, what a Superbowl!

Can't say enough about how amazing this is for the city of New Orleans. I take my hat off to the team and the fans, and I only hope that everyone going nuts makes it through the night in one piece.

We did not have an NBA play yesterday, as the short card didn't really afford a ton of value. We did like Toronto a little bit, but the line just wasn't juicy enough to make it a posted play, so we moved on. Unfortunately, this Monday card isn't really one for the ages, either, but it's our job to sink our teeth into it and see what it tastes like.

As far as streaks are concerned, we went 2-1 on Saturday, winning both of the free plays and dropping the paid play, but ALL premium selections are still rocking strong at 10-5-1 in the last 16 plays, and 22-13-1 in the last 36, record that are quite profitable, I might add!

Sports Wagering

Hornets @ Magic - Orlando by 7.5 with a total of 194.5. The first thing that struck me when I saw this line was "what the hell are the oddsmakers smoking?" Orlando to win by just 7.5 over the Chris Paul-less Hornets? The Magic are indeed on the second half of a back-to-back after posting a nice road win against the Celtics yesterday afternoon, so that is indeed giving the line a slight downward bump, but man, this line is just asking for a bet on the Magic, and I don't feel like you can ever really trust a line like that. The Hornets managed to steal a win against a Bobcats team that hadn't been home in ages and was in a trademark letdown spot, but now we're asking this team, that is relying much more heavily on the fast-break without Paul, to beat a vastly superior Magic team that may have played some of their best defense all season. The question here is whether the Magic can parlay that nice win over Boston into a home cover, or if they'll suffer a letdown after the big ABC game on Sunday. This game is tough to predict, as you've got a New Orleans team that could very easily get blown out of the building if Orlando gives even a decent effort. They could certainly cover if Orlando lets them hang around for a half. To me, it's basically a coin-flip. I lean to the Hornets to grab another cover here, though I highly doubt they can pull off the win, as I feel Orlando might be in for a weak performance after picking up the season series in over the Celts. It is worth noting, though, before moving forward, that the Magic beat the Celtics in a great comeback just a couple weeks back, then proceeded to destroy the Hawks the very next game; they did have a day off to rest up for that one, and here they're on back-to-back, a situation that has seen the Magic post a 5-5-2 ATS mark. The total is also intriguing, as we've seen the Hornets really push the pace, playing to 8 of 9 overs, while the Magic have been trying to grind games out, playing to 9 of 11 unders. This one is a crapshoot no matter how you cut it, but I'm inclined to believe that with the Magic on the 2nd half of a back-to-back, there may be a couple quarters in here where they lose focus on the defensive end; I lean Over.

Spurs @ Lakers - This line is OFF. And for good reason - Kobe Bryant is hurt, and his late scratch, the injury news that plagued our Top Play on Saturday, is right back in focus in this game in LA. But what do we want, really? The Lakers other guys stepped up big time in the road win over Portland, just the way you'd expect them to when the superstar went down just before gametime. It's been discussed ad nauseum, the "Injured Star Theory", but one of the most interesting facets is trying to determine how long the "other guys" can make up for the superstar. Some believe it's 1 game. I happen to believe it varies depending on the quality of the team and the prognosis of the injured star. That is, psychologically, the "other guys" deal with a different sense of what sort of effort to put forth. I think in this case, where the Lakers know they're only going to be without Kobe for a game or two more, max, if that, guys like Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom can carry a team for a couple games, not just one. It's a predicament, to be sure. Hell, maybe Kobe will play and it won't matter, but I'd actually rather bet this game without Kobe, since I think the Lakers home crowd can potentially carry the other guys even if they start to run low on energy. On the other side, the rickety old Spurs are coming off an easy winner over the Clippers, another team that was coming home off an 8-game road trip and just completely unfocused. San Antonio has played pretty well on the rodeo road trip so far, but the Lakers are going to be playing with some strong revenge here. San Antonio beat LA in Texas by 20 in a game the Lakers just never showed up for, and the Spurs shot a ridiculous 57% from the field. That most certainly will not happen again, and if the Lakers are again without Kobe, we can expect the same deliberate offense and methodical team defense (and great rebounding). And really, other than the fact that the Spurs just ran all over the Lakers earlier this year, the Lakers have had nice answers for San Antonio since they acquired Gasol and since Bynum learned how to play a little. I lean Lakers and Under.

Mavericks @ Warriors - Dallas by 4.5 with a total of 218. This is a battle of two teams, pardon the expression, literally crapping down their legs. The Warriors, the home team, are fresh off getting crushed, again, by the Thunder. They have lost 8 straight games SU, and while they're 4-4 ATS in that same stretch (and 7-4 ATS in their last 11), this team is barely covering as a dog, and while they might actually be getting a point or two of value because of the public's horrible perception of them, they are an extremely dangerous play. I have always liked backing the Warriors against the Mavericks due to the Don Nelson connection, but it looks like Golden State is starting to slow a little. They've played to 3 straight unders, and averaged just around 98 ppg while doing so, when their season average is over 106! If the Warriors can muster up some energy, playing them against the Mavericks is a great proposition. They've covered the last 3 games in Oakland against the Mavs, and they're actually 19-9 ATS against Dallas over the last decade-plus. The question here is whether fading Dallas is a valuable choice right now. The Mavs are 0-6 ATS since January 26th, so they're playing some awful basketball. The biggest issue continues to be defense, as the Mavs allow 98.7 ppg to their opponents on the season, but have allowed their last 6 opponents to each break 100. They're also 5-2 O/U in the last 7 games. Interestingly, though, one of the unders came against these Warriors, when the teams combined for 211 points, well under the posted mark of 218. In fact, both games so far have been under 218, the same total each time. And guess what? It's the same again. So our job is to try to determine if oddsmakers are just going to continue to try to split money on 218 until they have to change that value, or if indeed they believe this total is going to get up to 218. I'm inclined to believe the Warriors score a ton of points here against the porous Dallas defense. I like the Warriors, and I like the Over.