Batum Goes Boom

These openings are getting to be a bit long-winded, and until my amount of free time increases by, say 25%, I think it's time to put more of my energy into the game write-ups, and less into recapping records and yesterday's results.

So, quickly, we won yesterday with the Blazers, and picked up another Prop Bet winner on Tyreke Evans scoring over 19 points. Strong Sunday, hopefully the start to a much better week than the last one!

We're now 15-7-1 on our last 23 Paid Plays, and 23-13 on all Premium Selections since the All Star Break. You guys know the long term record stands at 60% since mid-January (basically, when I shook off the Just-Turned Pro Jitters), so no need to list the exact numbers - they are all available at my Pro Page. Click this paragraph to get there.

Sports Wagering

Knicks @ Sixers - Philadelphia by 3.5 with a total of 210.5. Two teams with nothing to play for going head-to-head; just what we've always wanted, right? Well, there are still some angles at play that we might as well take a peek at, just in case this game turns out to be a value. Off the bat, it's pretty clear that the Sixers have mailed it in for this season. They've lost 8 of 9 games, and 3 straight, and generally they've been getting pummeled, as they're just 3-6 ATS in those 9 contests. Philadelphia got whipped by the Heat in Miami yesterday, though it's tough to call it a back-to-back, just because of the game being played on Sunday afternoon. Philly has been pretty middle-of-the-pack in back-to-back games anyway, and the fact that they're still laying 3.5 here is somewhat of a surprise to me. The Knicks come to town off an insane road blowout of the Dallas Mavericks. That game is tough to explain, though the Knicks certainly have the offensive tempo to put up some numbers. The Sixers aren't playing defense, they're not scoring much, and it looks like they're trying to give the young guys some more run, here. Again, it's tough to really claim that one team is a value in this one, since neither has any reason to give 100%, but I think when you've got two teams that both have nothing going on, it's a wise move to look at either the home team or the team getting points. Unfortunately, those are opposite sides in this game. Philadelphia has been awful at home at just 9-22 ATS, so perhaps that wipes out one angle, and I lean to the Knicks to at least take this sucker down to the wire, possibly win it outright. This total is awfully high, but you know New York wants a game up over 100, so I actually do have a slight lean to the Over.

Pistons @ Celtics - Boston by 9.5 with a total of 196. I would have loved to see Boston win yesterday in Cleveland, since that would have created downright MEGA value on the Pistons side, but even with the loss, I still think fading the Celtics at home is generally a decent bet. Unfortunately, Boston has actually been a more predictable look-ahead team this year than a letdown team. Coming off big games, they've done a decent job of covering spreads, though lately, those "letdown" spots have come on the road. We've talked at great length on the podcasts about that 9.5 number, and how it really entices the public to get on the favorite. It's not 10 points, so you're not laying double digits, and the public falls in love with the idea that surely the favorite can clear 9.5. But it's usually not so simple. The Pistons, despite their 9-10 ATS record in the season's second half, have actually been extremely predictable and successful when rested. Since the All Star Break, the Pistons are 7-3 ATS when on 1 day of rest, or more, and they had a day to gameplan here, and get those jump-shooting legs ready to roll. When on a back-to-back since the Break, the Pistons are an outstanding 0-5 ATS. If that doesn't tell you when to bet the Pistons, I don't know what does. I think this is a nice spot for them, as Detroit got beat by Boston at home earlier this month in a game that, really, Detroit could have won with a stronger second half. I think the Pistons are playing with pride right now, even if they're not winning much, but thanks to their pathetic mark in back-to-back games, they remain undervalued. I lean Detroit, since I think Boston has a mental lapse day, recovering from yesterday's mediocre effort in Cleveland. This total looks awfully high, but both teams have been playing less defensive-minded basketball than at any point in the last few years. I lean Over.

Nuggets @ Rockets - Denver by 3 with a total of 215.5. This side is very, very weird to me. I find it hard to believe the Nuggets are only 6-point neutral court favorites over Houston, but maybe my brain is just farting on this game. The Nuggets were laying 2 in Memphis on a back-to-back, so by that token, the Rockets are being ranked as 1-point better than the Grizzlies. It's almost as though someone got hurt, but I'm not aware of it, so for all the readers, if I missed something, please fill in the blanks. I can already tell that this game is going to be heavily bet on Denver, since it seems awfully easy to expect Denver to cover only 3 points in Houston, no? Something very weird about this game, and I can't quite put my finger on it. Yes, it's Denver's final game of their current 4-game road trip, but they've won 6 games in a row, and even in a game against Memphis that seemed like a trademark sluggish spot, Denver woke up and poured in 40 points in the 4th quarter. Quite frankly, while I feel like there's something going on with this line that I'm not quite processing, I wouldn't step in front of the Nuggets (again) without someone whispering to me that Carmelo Anthony has money on the opponent, or some similarly decisive inside information. I would love to say I lean to the Rockets, but I'm too busy scratching my head to lean in any direction. It's not a particularly good or bad spot for either team, and Denver had clubbed Houston twice already this year without much trouble. Be careful here. This total is the highest for any of the 3 meetings between these teams this year, which makes me think Houston and Denver get into a classic shootout, but with both teams coming off outrageously high-scoring games, I'm also concerned that it's just an inflated number. NO LEANS on this game.

Wizards @ Jazz - This line is OFF. Presumably because of Utah's injury issues. The Jazz are scuffling a little bit right now, dropping two straight games with the Bucks and the Thunder. Now, they have to head back home for a date with a team that doesn't seem all too interested in playing out the rest of the season. And that's a shame, too, because Utah is playing its 5th game in 7 days, and this would be a wonderful time to fade them if the competition wasn't so pathetic. The Wizards have lost 7 straight games, though I suppose the 2-5 ATS mark in that stretch isn't quite so horrid, still bad, though. Obviously, with Utah losing a couple in a row, the value of a play on Washington isn't quite as high, but I still contend that teams coming off a long stretch of solid play are sort of inclined to lose a few, or at least play less inspired basketball for a couple days before rounding back into shape. And while I want nothing more than to make a play on the Wizards, Washington played 3 games in 3 days, but only got 1 day off before this game in Utah, then another game tomorrow in Denver. This is a damn tiring stretch of basketball for both teams involved, which makes backing either club somewhat difficult. Still, when all is said and done, I have to lean to Washington. Even though they seem to have mailed it in, Utah is in a very difficult spot, and the spread is going to be massive on this one. In terms of the total, with both teams exhausted, I would think defense might be lacking, but at the same time, Washington hasn't cracked 100 points since Feb 26th. I might lean Under, depending on the line.

Hornets @ Clippers - This line is OFF. This line seems to be off because of Eric Gordon's injury, but man, you want to talk about two teams BOTH going down the toilet, this is that game. The Clippers are playing their first game home off a 5-game road trip that saw LA lose all 5 games, go 1-4 ATS, and of the 7 straight games the Clippers have lost, they've been blown out by 10 or more points in 6 of them, and lost the other game by 8. The Hornets lost in Phoenix last night, so they're probably going to be getting points in this game, and they've lost 8 straight games ATS. These are really 2 of the worst teams in the NBA right now, with the Bulls and Wolves also potential candidates for that award, and picking between the two is a struggle, to be sure. The Hornets have actually covered 10 straight games against the Clippers, and 8 of those 10 have gone over the posted total. Two of those 10 straight covers have come this season, but both of those games were in New Orleans. The question here is whether the Clippers can legitimately have a "first-game-home" letdown when they're losing nightly by 15-25 points. It almost seems like things can't get any worse for either of these teams. The Hornets, supposedly, are expecting Chris Paul back, so maybe they'll make one final push to rack up a few wins, and they did actually put forth a marginal effort last night in Phoenix before buckling to a better team, and they're 7-6 ATS on back-to-backs, so getting those 2 extra points might actually help their cause. I lean to the Hornets, who are sure to be a small road dog. I also lean to the Over, since I think the Clippers continue to struggle to defend (they've allowed 100 points in 8 straight), and the Hornets will continue to try to run, but might actually be able to score against a bad Clippers defense.

Lakers @ Warriors - Lakers by 7.5 with a total of 222. This game is 100% reliant on the Lakers actually trying. We know we're going to get a decent effort from the Warriors - those D-Leaguers are laying it on the line EVERY night, as they know one great game this year could potentially get them a contract for next season. Stephen Curry seems to be enjoying himself, and Monta Ellis, if healthy, is one of the tougher covers in the NBA. So, we know the Warriors are going to give a strong effort, especially against a marquee opponent like the Lakers. And are the Lakers really a 10.5 or 11-point neutral court favorite? That's a huge number of points to lay on the road, but again, if the Lakers give 90%, they can cover this number. The sheer size advantage the Lakers have over the Warriors is absurd, since Golden State's starting 5 is predominantly under 6'6", with a few exceptions, of course. But the Warriors have quietly covered 3 in a row and 6 of 8, so they're a good value right now, as one of the few BAD teams in the NBA still playing hard. In fact, aside from the fact that they're so wildly overmatched by the Lakers, the Warriors should be a good bet the rest of the season, as long as the D-Leaguers keep giving 100% - bad teams that are motivated to prove themselves are an amazing bet all year long, but even moreso as we hit the stretch run, and other teams start to mail it in. The Lakers are coming off a win on the road in Phoenix, so the obvious concern is that they're getting things turned around, and that makes me hesitant to back Golden State here. Also, LA beat Golden State 130-97 in Oakland earlier this year. I have a tiny lean to the Warriors because of the value, but we're talking TINY. The total intrigues me, since it seems awfully high. The Lakers haven't played that many high-scoring games lately, and I'm interested in seeing the bet% breakdown on this game, as that will give us a better indicator if this line is inflated or set high because oddsmakers believe the Warriors will crack 100 points. At first glance, I lean Over, but that is subject to change.

Who Shot J.R.?

That title came at the request of a buddy, and maybe it's too soon to poke fun at our Big Play that went down in flames, I do like the idea of at least trying to take those 4th quarter meltdowns in stride.

I admit, I was at a very good friend's wedding all day and night yesterday (I was a groomsman, so I had to be down at the hotel early for pictures, drinks, etc.), but reading through the blog comments from yesterday, I didn't need to check the final or box score to know we weren't in good shape.

Again, checking scores, it appears as though the Spurs tore the Clippers a new one yet again, so at least the Free Play came through, we salvaged a 1-1 day, but certainly some losses for those that played the Big One at full value.

Like I said in the blog's last post yesterday, I certainly can't apologize for the Grizzlies falling apart, but I can definitely apologize for thinking they wouldn't -- so, guys, I sucked the big weenie on that one, and it's time to get back to winning. That sounds good - let's do that.

And because it's nearly 4:30 a.m. here on the West coast, I'm going to break down the early games and the later ones that I have STRONG LEANS in before sleep, then complete the others tomorrow, time permitting!!

Sports Wagering

Pacers @ Bucks - Milwaukee by 9.5 with a total of 202.5. We had that odd game about 3 weeks ago where the Bucks went into Indiana as a 2-point road favorite and won by a bucket. That line was one of the true head-scratchers of the last month or so, and I avoided it. Here, we have a line that makes more sense, in my opinion. The Bucks are probably the hottest team in the NBA -- they've won 5 in a row and 11 of 12 straight up, and their last 3 wins were at home over Boston, Cleveland (no Lebron, though), and Utah. Those are three very impressive victories. So, the question here is whether Milwaukee can get the juices flowing for a game with the pathetic Pacers of Indiana. I happen to think they will. The Bucks are rolling, and this is the final game of that 4-game homestand before Milwaukee embarks on a 3-game roadie out West. Indiana, meanwhile, has a banged up Danny Granger that is probable to play, but certainly not 100%, and they're pretty much running out the clock on 2010. They also pushed Milwaukee to the brink in that game mentioned above. I think Scott Skiles makes sure his guys take the Pacers seriously this time, and this one could be a blowout. I lean weakly to the Bucks, and weakly to the Under, as Milwaukee is on a 5-game under run, and they've been imposing a defensive will on games, which might even be more impressive than the wins themselves.

Cavaliers @ Celtics - This line is OFF. I would love to find a way to back the Celtics in this game. There, I said it. Boston is about as undervalued as they're ever going to be, but the obvious concern is whether or not they're actually good enough to keep a game with a superior team like Cleveland remotely close. Boston had been dinking and doinking along for a bit, losing on the road in Milwaukee, then at home to the Grizzlies before picking up an easy winner over the hapless Pacers in their last game. The biggest issue with the Celtics, though, is not that they can't win games. Boston is still a decent team, but they just don't seem to have the firepower on offense to keep up with superb offensive clubs, or the lateral mobility on defense to stymie the better teams in the NBA, at least not like in years past. Still, with Lebron just working his way back into top form, I happen to think the Cavs are going to be a bit overvalued here, when the line does finally decide to show up. Cleveland is coming off a road win, but failed cover in Philadelphia, and they've actually covered only 1 of their last 4 games, and that was the screwball win over the Spurs. The Cavs beat Boston on the road about 2 and a half weeks ago, so there is a measure of revenge for the Celtics, and I happen to think Boston is the team with more to prove, especially in a big game setting. I think we'll see Boston getting potentially as many as 7-8 points, and that's a ton to cover in an early game. I lean Celtics, and we all know how I feel about Boston in big game situations -- they're going to try to make this game as ugly as possible. I lean Under.

Sixers @ Heat - This line is OFF.

Bobcats @ Magic - This line is OFF.

Jazz @ Thunder - Oklahoma City by 1.5 with a total of 204.5. This is the game of the night, from a purely basketball-enjoyment standpoint, and as evidenced by the fact that I'm breaking it down early (not Sunday morning - read the opening few paragraphs if this doesn't make sense), indicates that I do have a lean on it. That lean is to the Thunder. I realize after watching the NBA every day all season long, this lean seems obvious to the loyal blog-folk, but quickly, the reasoning: Oklahoma City is coming off a narrow 2-point win over the Nets, a trademark sign of a look-ahead. The Thunder had blown out the Hornets prior to the game with Jersey (and as has been noted by Denmarkok, the Hornets are actually a very emotional opponent for the Thunder), and so that Nets game was really the sandwich. So far, so good - we leaned Thunder in the game against New Orleans, leaned Nets in the next one, and if the sandwich completes itself with another "bun", we like the Thunder here. Interestingly, Deron Williams and Andrei Kirilenko are both questionable, and even more interestingly, the Thunder might be the toughest opponent in the League for the Jazz. Utah has lost to Oklahoma twice already this year, though both of those games were back in 2009. The Thunder are stronger now, and the Jazz are on the last game of a road trip - they're coming off a loss in Milwaukee, which can also stifle momentum. And that is why the lean is as such on the side. The total feels high, since these teams have played fairly slow games both times this year, but perhaps oddsmakers believe one or two quarters end up as shootouts - tough to say, though I still think the importance of this game is going to cause Oklahoma to bring the defense, and keep this Under.

Hornets @ Suns - Phoenix by 8.5 with a total of 211.5. I'll take "Teams That Can't Cover" for $200, please. The Hornets have lost 7 straight, ATS. The Suns have lost 3 in a row. Which team will buckle first? There really isn't any value in this game, and my feelings that the Hornets just have nothing left in the tank are being confirmed. I'm doing this write-up early, because I would recommend staying away from the side in this game. These teams have indeed met 3 times already this year, and Phoenix has taken 2 of those 3, including the most recent meeting, February 1, in New Orleans. So, you could say there's a measure of revenge, but I happen to think this line is pretty accurate. Phoenix might bounce back off the tough loss to the Lakers and blow the Hornets out by 25, or there's about a 50/50 shot Phoenix has a letdown for, say, the first half of this one, the Hornets race out to a lead, and Phoenix has to battle to win by 5 or 6. I just don't like those odds - coin flips are long term losers, and I would recommend a No-Play on the side. On the total, well, the clear problem with liking the over is that the Hornets just haven't been scoring against anyone with a player listed over 6'10" on their team. The Hornets have eclipsed 100 points just 1 time in their last 10 games, and it was against the Warriors. They've scored exactly 100 points a few times in there, but for the most part, the tiring offense of New Orleans is leading to final scores in the mid-90's. That means we'd need 115 from Phoenix to get to the total, and I don't think the Suns are going to care to hang that kind of number. I lean Under.

Wolves @ Kings

Raptors @ Blazers - Portland by 8.5 with a total of 203. This game has one glaring angle that needs to be pursued -- the Raptors complete and utterly absurd inability to function on zero sleep. I mean, there are some bad teams in the NBA, and there are some very old, rickety teams in the NBA, and none of them compares to Toronto's ineptitude in these spots. They are 3-12 ATS in back-to-back games, and Toronto's not that awful overall. They're 29-33 ATS on the season, but a good deal of those recent losses came with Chris Bosh out. Bosh or no Bosh, Toronto loses by an average of almost 12 points when they're playing back-to-back games on the road, and by over 10 in all back-to-back spots. This also happens to be the final game of their current road trip before the long flight back to Canada, where we'll see Toronto take a couple days off before hosting the Hawks. To be perfectly fair, the value isn't great on either side in this game. The line of 8.5 is probably about a half-point of line value for the Raptors, if anything, and it really makes me wonder why we're getting such a fair line. It could have something to do with the focus on College ball right now, but sometimes it's best not to look a gift horse in the mouth. I lean Portland. I know it's a revenge game for Toronto, but let's be honest, how badly do the Raptors really want this game? On the total, I'm inclined to look at the Over, since Toronto's defense on back-to-back games is just abysmal.

Vinny Del Desempleado

I'm more than willing to admit when I'm just flat out wrong, and that was the case last night with the Suns. Obviously, the most frustrating part was that my three other strong leans on sides (Heat, Pistons, Nets) all covered, and unfortunately, from among my four strong leans, I picked the one stinker. It happens, and we move on. I only hope the avid blog readers got a winner or two out of checking for "overlap" with my strongest leans, since that would definitely make me feel better about laying a less-than-stellar Top Play on you guys, my loyal readers, and even more loyal bettors.

Enough about yesterday. When you just miss a pick, it's best to move forward, so let's crank out some write-ups on Saturday's card and see if we can't isolate a few winners.

Courtesy of last night's flop, our Paid Play run moves to 14-6-1, still DAMN good, but certainly wanted that 15th winner. We are 21-12 since the All Star Break, so still pretty tough to complain, and 34-23-2 and 46-31-2 over the long(er) term. I'm not happy with last night's loss, since I rarely feel like I just flat-out goofed on a play, but once again, the long term goals are still right there, and if I have 4 strong leans in front of me, and 3 of those 4 are going to cover, I think we're in good shape.

Sports Wagering

Magic @ Wizards - Orlando by 11.5 with a total of 195. This is an utterly screwball game, in that the Wizards had a write-in game on Thursday, played last night in Detroit, and now have to come back home to host the hottest team in the NBA, or one of the hottest at least. Three games in 3 nights for the Wizards, and unfortunately, oddsmakers are well aware of it. That's why they're getting 11.5 points here. I hate to do this to you guys, but I'm going to be at my best buddy's wedding, so write-ups today and Sunday are going to be a bit briefer than usual, especially on the games that don't interest me. Washington beat Orlando on February 2, so amazingly, the Magic have something to prove. I'm not laying 11.5 on a road team, no matter how great the situational spot, and I can tell you right out that I have no leans on the side. As far as the total is concerned, I have no idea how the Wizards are going to break 90, but I also have no idea how the Wizards can keep the Magic under 100. I think this total is pretty accurate, but I believe Orlando helps push this total Over by about a bucket. Not worth a play, not by a longshot, but it's a lean, so there it is.

Pistons @ Hawks - Atlanta by 12 with a total of 199. I get the feeling this line is high for a reason. We've talked numerous times about how bad Detroit has been in back-to-back games, especially since the All Star Break, and at 4-13-1 ATS, the Pistons are never a good team to play in fatigue spots. Detroit actually beat Atlanta in their only meeting this season, winning at home as a 6-point dog outright while outrebounding Atlanta 59-33. That is way, way out of character, as the Hawks are an impressive rebounding club, in general, and I don't think that happens again. The Pistons are coming off an easy win over the Wizards at home, so this one is going to take a fair amount of travel, and Detroit's tired jump-shooting legs are a bad bet. And as bad as the Hawks have been playing, this is the type of game where they've done just fine. The Pistons are undermanned and hugely reliant on jumpshots to succeed, and with the Pistons repeated failure to score when tired, they're ripe for the picking. I only wish the Hawks played better defense, since covering 12 points is going to be a task. I happen to think this spread is inflated, but actually accurate given the Pistons propensity for falling apart in the second half of back-to-backs, and I lean Hawks. I also happen to believe Detroit struggles to score, and if the Hawks don't force the tempo too much, this one stays Under.

Nuggets @ Grizzlies - Nuggets by 2.5 with a total of 214. Two teams on back-to-back games, but one team that has been "less bad" than the other. I choose my words carefully, and what I refer to is that the Nuggets are 5-9-2 ATS in back-to-back games, while the Grizzlies are a dead even 8-8 ATS. Advantage Memphis, there. On the side, the Grizzlies and Nuggets are both coming off wins last night, and while the Nuggets covered against the tiring Hornets, the Grizzlies allowed a backdoor cover to the Knicks in a spot where I'm sure Memphis-backers are currently pulling hair out. But Memphis has a chance to make a stink here tonight. The Nuggets are a perfectly terrible 0-7 ATS when they're a small road favorite (less than 3 points), a nice indicator that their "elite" status is garnering them too much credit in games against middling teams who have the talent and motivation to give Denver a tough time. Let's be honest here, this game means way more to the Grizzlies than the Nuggets, and Memphis has quietly rattled off 3 wins in a row, and 5 in 6 games. I happen to think Memphis wins this game; lean to the Grizz. On the total, I believe this is inflated at 214. Denver doesn't score as well on the road as they do at home, and the Grizzlies, while they've been putting up strong offensive numbers this week, they are actually an under team at home - I lean Under.

Clippers @ Spurs - This line is OFF. This is a tough night of travel for Los Angeles. They played last night in Charlotte and barely covered, then had to get from North Carolina down to Texas, and while they do get an hour in time zones, this is a 4th in 5 nights spot for the Clippers. HOWEVER, and this is a big however, the Spurs are coming home to host this one off a win last night in Minnesota, so they have a long night of travel, too, and we all know how bad the Spurs have been when tired. To San Antonio's credit, they're playing much better lately, but that complete inability to score in back-to-back games makes covering the kind of outrageously large spread we're likely to see here very, very tough. The Spurs are just 5-6 ATS in back-to-backs, which doesn't look all that bad, but they're 5-6 SU and 2-9 O/U, and those two stats give me pause. The Clippers are just 7-10-1 in back-to-back games, and 10-8 O/U, so they still stink, and the two points they normally get in the line hasn't really helped, and considering this is that trademark 4th in 5 nights fatigue game, all 4 games on the road, the Clippers look pretty darn bad. This spread is going to be hefty, but the Spurs actually won their last back-to-back game, a 102-92 victory in Memphis, so I'm not completely turned off by them. The Clippers look like they've about given up on this season, and I lean Spurs, despite a spread that's likely to be chalky enough to make you cough powder. On the total, well, I just won't back a Spurs over on a back-to-back -- not sure the under is a great play, but I certainly have to lean that way, to the Under.

Nets @ Rockets - Houston by 10 with a total of 200. This might be the game where the Nets finally fail to cover on the road. The Nets conclude a 5-game road trip here in Houston. They've gone 1-3 so far on the trip straight up, but a perfect 4-0 ATS, covering spreads that have been a bit lower than we might have expected, given the strength of the competition. But this is a different spot tonight. The Nets fought tooth and nail to try to come back and steal one from the Thunder last night, and coming from behind can be extremely exhausting. The Nets are 1-15 SU this year in back-to-backs, no surprise there, but 6-9 ATS, so just a tiny bit worse than their season ATS numbers. They have actually played decent basketball in their last few back-to-back situations, but given that after tonight's game, the Nets have 2 days off before hosting the Hawks, I'm guessing a few of those young guys are going to give effort for 24 minutes, and if the game isn't going their way, it might be time to take a nap for the second half. I don't necessarily like Houston, as they're playing their first home game off a 3-game swing through the Midwest, and Washington. It's not a terribly long road trip, but it might be a little bit of a sluggish spot for Houston, who currently sits one 10-game winning streak out of playoff contention. It's tough to tell if the Rockets are really invested in the stretch run, but as long as they've been collecting some wins, I don't think they're going to give up yet. I know the Nets have looked great lately, but off the tough game last night, I think they suffer a little bit of a snooze game tonight, and I lean Rockets. I also like the Over, since I fail to see how the Nets are going to defend well when tired, and the Rockets know they can win this game if they get out and get easy scores.

Knicks @ Mavericks - Dallas by 11 with a total of 210. Fade the Mavs at home? This one is a little tougher, just given the Knicks' situational spot. New York heads to Dallas off a 7-point loss and successful cover in Memphis last night, and the Knicks, a team predicated on offense, has been predictably terrible in back-to-back games. They are just 2-13 SU and almost as bad ATS at 5-10. They give up almost 110 points to their opponents in back-to-backs, so the Knicks already bad defense gets even worse. Though, that being said, I'm not sure it's so much that the defense gets worse, as the Knicks long rebounds get turned into fast-break buckets a little more often. So, while the Knicks score a point less when they're tired, they give up 5 more per game than when they're rested. I honestly don't much care for either team in this game, since it's important to look for a good situational spot before jumping on a bad team, and here, the Knicks aren't in a good spot at all. While backing the Mavs at home is always a brutal suggestion, I do happen to think this spread is pretty accurate, with the Knicks at risk for getting blown out. I lean Mavs, but doubtful this lean will amount to anything more than just that - a lean. The total of 210 intrigues me, since the Mavs finally played some defense in their last game, a win and failed cover against the Nets. Brendan Haywood was back in the lineup for Dallas, and the defense improved by almost 20 points. It won't be that severe every night, but with Haywood back, I'm back to enjoying Mavs Under bets.

Raptors @ Warriors - Toronto by 1.5 with a total of 227.5. This is a strange line to me. The Raptors would seem to be more than 4.5-points stronger than the Warriors, but they're just clanking game after game on the road, and it may surprise you to know that Toronto has gone just 1-7 SU in their last 8 games, and 1-6-1 ATS. That right there is a slump. They gave the Lakers a run for their money, but came back the next night and got spanked by the Kings. Now, after 2 nights to think about what went wrong, the Raptors are going up against something of a Western Conference mirror of themselves. The Warriors are, certainly, a bit more helter-skelter, and since Toronto has more talent, they don't have to operate at such a nutty pace, but the Warriors are a team that, when rested, really play their asses off on a nightly basis. I don't really like this game for either team though. Toronto is going to want to bounce back off that ugly loss up Interstate 80, and the Warriors might be in a letdown spot off the Thursday night meltdown. For the Warriors, it's all going to be about rebounding - if they can keep the Raptors to just 1 shot per possession, they can win this game, but only time will tell if Golden State can nab a rare win. I can't back the Raptors right now in their current slump, so I do lean to Golden State, but they're in a bad spot, too, so I'd be careful in this one. This total is stratospheric, but sometimes I wonder if oddsmakers set the mark this high to draw money on the under - I could certainly see both teams getting to 115, but I'd rather just avoid this volatile number.