Saturday, October 31, 2009

Too Good Not To Be True

Yes, a new take on the old expression, and that's how we nailed a perfect 3-0 sweep last night for a profit of 4 oh-so-sweet units. For instance, the Over 201.5 in San Antonio just seemed too insane to work, but if you break everything down, you can see why the game was a perfect winner.

I promise to keep my eyes peeled for similarly obscene lines that are just too good NOT to be true!

Saturday night's NBA slate also showed us that the Bucks can beat mediocre teams at home, the Pistons are useless without Rip Hamilton, the Cavs can outscore the Bobcats in ugly games, Andray Blatche can score 30 points, and Portland still can't defend on the road.

Sports Wagering

Raptors/Magic - This line is currently OFF, but my thoughts on the game are as follows. The Magic have given oddsmakers no reason to doubt them, posting a home beatdown of the Sixers and following that up with a comfortable cruising victory over the rather hapless Nets. This will be Orlando's first "test" of the year, playing a talented Toronto club that, after 2 games, appears to be much more at ease playing in their own building, where they can control the tempo. This game, though, features two teams that love to move the ball and fire up shots. We pit two up-tempo offenses against one another, and the difference becomes that behemoth in the paint, Dwight Howard. The Raptors match up just fine with the Magic's bevy of athletic wingmen, but Andrea Bargnani simply cannot deal with Howard's bulk. I think the Magic open this game as very small favorites, and if we get more than 4 points, I would lean Toronto to keep this game close. The total should be over 200.

Celtics/Hornets - Boston opened as 11 point favorites with a total at 183.5. Without knowing how the public is going to bet this game, I'd say it's safe to GUESS that they'll be on the Celtics and that the line will likely move to 11.5 or 12 before tip-off, then maybe back down if dog bettors nab the extra point. I hate to sound like a "square," but until the Hornets show me anything that should build confidence, I just don't believe they can keep this game within 10. The Celtics have been playing a brand of defense that reminds us of their championship season, especially at home. Meanwhile, the Hornets got pasted by the Spurs in San-Antone', then barely squeezed past the Kings at HOME! This Hornets team is losing a step every year, it seems, as the Chris Paul/David West combo clearly needs a third viable option, and I'm not talking about Mo Pete. I lean to the Celtics to beat 'em up, and I lean to the Under if only because I don't see the Hornets breaking 85.

Heat/Bulls - Miami has played some outstanding defense in its first two games, though they've gotten a little lucky, too. The Bulls, on the other hand, have played a great home game against a sluggish Spurs lineup, and a terrible road game against the juggernaut of the East (Boston). I'm seeing Miami by 4.5 with a total of 193. Very interesting line, and I'll be curious to see where the money comes in. Obviously, folks are going to remember Chicago getting blasted in their last game, and Miami holding Indiana to 31% shooting for most of their game, but this line seems to indicate that Miami is 1.5 points better than Chicago on a neutral court, and I'm not sure I agree with that. Chicago is not going to play as poorly as they did in Boston, and they obviously match up just fine with almost any team in the NBA. What's more, I'm not sure Jermaine O'Neal can put up another game like the one he had in Indy. I think the Bulls have a very good shot of winning this game outright, though I'd never give up 4.5 points. I lean Chicago, and I lean to the Over, but no plays on this one until we see some line movement.

Thunder/Blazers - Suddenly, everyone loves the Thunder! A few days ago, they were 5 point dogs to the Pistons, and today they'll be 2 point home dogs to the Blazers. Clearly, the change of venue swings the line around, but unless you think the Pistons and Blazers are equally dangerous, you can see how the Thunder have improved in the eyes of oddsmakers. The total in this game is 186. I have a great deal of respect for the Thunder, and the Blazers still haven't shown me they're ready to excel on the road. That being said, I'm not sure I see the Thunder opening the season 3-0. I want to see public perception of both of these teams before making any plays, but this game certainly has some value, and we'll figure out a way to exploit it. The total should fall under 186, with Portland on the second half of a back-to-back, and the Thunder playing deceptively good defense this year.

Nuggets/Grizzlies - Denver hosts the Grizz, gives up 11 points and posts a total of 206. I actually think this is pretty accurate. Denver has not skipped a beat following last year's emergence. They have so many weapons, there's just no way the Grizzlies can keep up. Of course, that doesn't necessarily mean they win by 12. I think we see both teams move the ball quickly up and down the court, and the total, despite already being pretty high, has a decent shot of going over. Both of these teams are going to be slightly overvalued right now, with the Grizzlies beating Toronto at home, and Denver going 2-0 to open their season with wins over Utah and Portland. More to come tomorrow.

Suns/Wolves - This is a game that, at first glance, tells me to stay the heck away. Phoenix is laying 13 points to the rebuilding Timberwolves. Normally, when you see a poor defensive team favored by 13, you look at the dog, but I think the line is this high to drive folks TO the dog. Phoenix gets Jason Richardson back in this contest, and Minnesota is going to rely very heavily on Al Jefferson to keep them in the game. Similar to the Suns-Warriors game two days ago, I see Phoenix building a lead slowly, then letting it snowball as they simply outclass the Wolves. The total of 216 looks pretty sharp to me, so I'd dodge it unless we get some key information.

Lakers/Hawks - I don't often recommend taking a long look at the Lakers at home, but this is one of those rare spots. After falling to the Mavericks, I think the Lakers use that game as a wake-up call. In addition, the Hawks have dominated a few opponents on their court, where they are notoriously tough. Right now, Lakers are favored by 6.5, and I still think they're more than 6.5 points better than the Hawks. The total in this one is a fairly low 194, as well. Are oddsmakers trying to goad us into taking the Lakers and the Over? Maybe. We'll watch and see, but if this line starts to move in the direction I suggest (as in, to 7 or 7.5 points, and a total climbing up over 195), we might want to jump before the lake gets too deep.

Fantasy Advice

Andray Blatche - Blatche scored 30, but this is NOT the norm, and don't expect it to be. He's a superfreak and can jump out of the building, but Washington is without Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison, which means guys like Blatche and Foye are going to overperform for the next little bit.

Aaron Brooks - Looks like the kid is comfortable enough taking the reins in Houston. If 28 points and 8 assists ain't good enough for you, and 4 threes doesn't get your juices flowing, well, you're probably in an 8-team League and need more friends.

No comments:

Your Ad Here

The information contained on this page is for entertainment purposes only; any use of this information in violation of any federal, state, or local laws is prohibited. The owner of this website assumes no responsibility for the actions by and makes no representation or endorsement of any of these games and/or activities offered by the advertiser.