Wednesday, November 25, 2009

TNT Week Five: The Chuck and His Cranberries

Well, it happened. Monta Ellis finally stopped playing basketball, but it took a 14-point deficit with just over a minute remaining against the Spurs to make it happen. Ellis logged 46 minutes in a blowout loss, which is just ridiculous in every sense of the word. Though, you can certainly make the case that he should be playing every second of every game if he continues to shoot over 60% from the field and motor like a maniac the entire time!

In other news, and everyone knows I rarely toot my own horn, and this season so far, my calls haven't been all that impressive, but Charlotte, my strongest play of the season, was a 33-point cover. If that isn't the definition of an easy win, I don't know what is.

Also worth noting, the Knicks are the Knicks again. After 3 solid performances (one of which spoiled our 19-point Pacers' lead), the hapless bunch from New York have regressed. In a blowout loss in Los Angeles on Tuesday, they shot 38.9% from the field; in a blowout loss the following night in Sacramento, they shot 38.5%.

I was trying to describe my feelings as I watched the Lakers-Knicks game on TV. I am in Southern California for a few days for Thanksgiving, so I'm able to catch Lakers games on local channels, and there was a point in that game, midway through the second quarter, where I was able to stop LOOKING at the television and stop listening to the broadcasters and I was still able to tell exactly what was happening. How? The sound of inflated synthetic "ball" material colliding with rim was so loud, it pervaded my blog-typing train of thought. I heard "DOINK" about 9 times in 3 minutes, and I knew that game was done.

Sports Wagering

Hawks/Magic - This line is OFF, but by the time we begin recording tomorrow's podcast, we should have a number, and I already know which way I'm leaning on this one. Of course, the line could impact things quite a bit. The Hawks are coming off a road loss to the New Orleans Hornets, a failure that snapped a 7-game winning streak for Atlanta, arguably one of the best teams in the NBA thus far. The Hawks are 11-3 both SU and ATS, and you have to believe they will be given a ton of credit by the oddsmakers. The best thing we have going for us in this game is that Atlanta is hosting a legitimately good team in Orlando, which means the line won't be inflated as much as against, say, the Nets. This means that there will be a little value in the Hawks, if indeed that's the direction we want to go. You could make the argument that the Magic were looking ahead to this game with Atlanta in their 1-point, final-moment loss to Miami, and you might be right, but with that demoralizing defeat so fresh in their minds, how will they bounce back. I typically like to fade a team coming off a long winning streak, but I also typically like to fade a team coming off a last-second loss. There are few things more tiring than playing your butt off for 48 minutes in a game that you should win then watching it just barely slip away in the final moments. With the Hawks up-tempo style, I expect this game to open with the home team favored by 4 and a total just a hair over 200.

Jazz/Bulls - Where the hell are Jordan, Stockton, Malone, and even Bryon Russell? This matchup isn't what it used to be, but it's still a game, and we're still going to break it down. Utah opens as a home favorite of 7 with a total of 195. The Jazz are 7-7 SU, 6-8 ATS and coming off an embarrassing 10-point home loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Jazz are clearly susceptible to teams with athletic wing players, and the Thunder definitely fit that mold. The Bulls "sort of" do, as well, but not at all the same. Chicago has a big, quick point guard in Derrick Rose, who just doesn't look quite healthy, and both Luol Deng and John Salmons qualify as solid 2/3 hybrids, but do they have the same ability to take it to the rack as Kevin Durant and Jeff Green? That is going to be the difference-maker in this game. The Bulls are 6-7 SU, 4-9 ATS, and have lost 3 straight both SU and ATS. This is what makes this game so difficult to cap -- both teams are severely slumping right now, though perhaps Chicago a tad more than Utah, so it's tough to find any advantage in value. We really have to just pick the lesser of two basketball evils, and hope that that team puts forth a decent effort. A key note in this one is that the Bulls are 4-1 at home and only 2-6 on the road, which certainly does not inspire confidence. Utah has not been their normal dominant home selves (4-3 in Salt Lake City), but Chicago's miserable road efforts this year make Utah's home court advantage a little stronger. The real value might be in the total. Chicago's defense has been horrendous on the road, and they've allowed over 103 PPG away from home. In Chicago, they allow just 87 PPG, a difference of over 16 points! Utah, meanwhile, scores 102 points at home. True, Chicago's road competition has been tougher than the teams they've played at home, but the discrepancy is pretty stark. I lean to the Over, and maybe just barely to Utah to cover.

Fantasy Advice

Darren Collison - I really didn't want to go there, since the moment Chris Paul regains his ability to break ankles (other than his own), Collison is, in the words of the scripture of the Holy Hand Grenade, "right out", but for the time being Collison is putting up big numbers in New Orleans. 18 points, 7 boards, 8 assists is mighty fine from a backup PG.

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