Wednesday, January 06, 2010

Bowling for Buckets, Final Frame

What is this? One game? Not cool. I know there's a mildly important football game on tonight, but does every NBA team need to be at home to watch it? Humbug. Oh well, let's break it down like we've never broken anything down ever before!

In terms of last night, our Paid Play on the Clippers +5.5 was an eeeeeeeeeasy winner, as the "other" LA team came through with an outright victory over the lackadaisical Lakers. Our Free half-unit Play on the Timberwolves came up a bit short, but we still nabbed a profit on the day, and that is priority number one. The Clippers are covering machines lately, though teams coming off big wins over rivals usually find themselves in fade spots.

Sports Wagering

Bobcats @ Knicks - Knicks by 3.5 with a total of 197. Alright, this is the only game on the slate, so I'm going all freaking out on this writeup. First, the Charlotte Bobcats; Charlotte has won 3 straight games, and all of them fairly impressive. They won in Miami, they won in Cleveland, and at home against the Bulls. This team has been a covering like crazy over the last month, too, going 4-1 in their last 5 ATS, 10-4 ATS in their last 14, and are suddenly starting to look a little less hapless on the road. Still, the value on Charlotte away from home is dwindling, and I think that's why we're seeing this spread so short. Charlotte's surge hasn't really corresponded with anything HUGE, either, and maybe that's the most interesting part. This team is starting to gel, and I hate to use vague terms like that, but looking at this recent stretch of games, they haven't shot the ball exceptionally well, they haven't consistently outrebounded their opponents, and they haven't forced their opponents to shoot the ball particularly poorly. It seems that, generally, they're just playing a shade better than the team they're up against. There have been high scoring games, low scoring games, and even some in-between, and it's tough to get a strong read on exactly how the contest is going to go. I suppose the Bobcats have been shooting free throws fairly well, but it's not as though this team is winning games at the line down the stretch. All I can really do is sigh and take a longer look at the situational aspects. Charlotte is playing well, and I don't think the betting public has quite caught on, despite the impressive road win over the Cavs. Charlotte's next few games are with mostly uninteresting teams, too, including the Grizz and Rockets. On the other side, we have the surging Knicks. New York, like the Bobcats, have been winning and covering. They haven't been the ATS monsters that the Bobcats have been, but 2 straight wins and covers in 2010 after a strong December just shows the Knicks are firmly middle-of-the-pack in the Eastern Conference. And much like Charlotte, they haven't been terribly consistent, even in their winning ways. The Knicks seemed to develop a nice defensive mindset in early-mid December, but that has gone and frittered away over the last 4 games have all featured at least one team scoring over 100 points, and 3-1 O/U. New York has shot over 50% in 3 of those 4 games, as well, clearly a large reason behind the high-scoring games. Also, like Charlotte, New York's upcoming games are mundane, also facing the Rockets, then tackling the Thunder and Sixers. So we've gone over both team's recent performances, and we're not really getting anywhere. The best information we have at our fingertips is the 3 previous meetings between the two clubs. Back on October 30 in the second game of the season the Knicks fell to the Bobcats by 2 points in Charlotte (102-100), and the game went Over the total of 195. Charlotte was favored by 1.5 in that game. In the second matchup, again in Charlotte on December 15, the Bobcats, favored by 5, won 94-87 for a cover and an Under on a total set at 197. The third matchup occurred just a few days later where the Knicks, favored by 6.5, won 98-94 for a failed cover and an Under 196. Now, we get another game in New York, where the spread is a good 3 points lower than the last time they met in the Big Apple, and a total of 197. This information isn't as telling as, say, the Mavs/Rockets 3 matchups we spoke of a week ago, but it's still interesting to note that both of the last two games have gone Under the total, but the total has remained equal to the previous high-water mark for this matchup. I think it's safe to say the oddsmakers think we'll see a little scoring in this one, and as a result of that, and the recent shooting of both teams, I lean Over. I also believe the oddsmakers set the spread of 3.5 feel this game goes an awful lot like the last one in New York - hard-fought and decided late. I lean to New York, since I think they have a little more to play for, being down 2-1 in the series, and their solid shooting lately will prevail, if just by a bit. I also like that the Knicks won the only meeting where both teams have been playing good ball. There you have it guys, the behemoth, one-game writeup.


Anonymous said...


Anonymous said...

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