Saturday, January 16, 2010

Rasual Fit

Clippers! Once again a team coming off a 40-point blowout loss plays way above themselves, and if not for the fact that Lebron James is superhuman, the Clips probably would have come up with an outright victory. Still, a 1-point loss is an easy cover on our LAC+8 wager, and I only brought up their heartbreaking loss because I was able to watch it from start to finish on the odd Fox Sports "Prime Ticket" network in LA.

In other news, our Free Premium Play on the Jazz was an easy winner, as Utah led wire-to-wire over the tired Bucks, and once again took advantage of a team flying into the altitude off a late game out in California. The pair of wins last night gives us 3 straight Paid Play winners, and a friendly little 6-1 run for ~4 units of profit on our small-betting system.

As noted above, Utah gets a taste of their own medicine, sort of, in one of today's two games. Let's take a peek.

Sports Wagering

Mavericks @ Raptors - Mavs by 1.5 with a total of 206. This one looks too easy; I hate that. The Mavs are almost unbeatable ATS on the road, but they've been struggling mightily, so it's up to us to figure out how the public feels about these teams, because that's really the ultimate note we need on this game. I know how I feel, and I feel like the Mavs' home struggles are of no huge concern to me. This is not a team you generally want to fade on the road, as they're 13-6 ATS away from home, and every time you expect them to lose, they destroy. Of course, every time you think they should win, they crumble. So, where do we stand? Do we think they should win this game? I would wager that yes, yes we do, despite the Raptors recent run of solid basketball. And that's what makes Toronto all that much more appealing. The Raps are fairly streaky right now, so the fact that they finished up a short 2-game road "jaunt" with a win in New York bodes extremely well. The fact that the Mavs somehow managed to squeeze past the Oklahoma City Thunder should also give bettors enough confidence to still take a long look at the Mavs, and that's precisely what we want when we look at the opposing team. This is a nice spot for Toronto due to the time of the game, as well. The early Sunday Canada game generally creates something of a lazy air, which is often better for the offensive-minded club, as I feel the Mavs have a fairly long travel schedule, then a supremely early game, and might not wake up fast enough. Dallas plays in Boston tomorrow (Monday), so this is also a look-ahead spot for Dirk and company. Maybe the final Toronto boost is the revenge factor. Very early this season the Raptors visited Dallas and got shellacked by 28 points in an extremely high-scoring game. This is a great spot for the suddenly gelling Raptors to show the strides they've made, and I feel like they're also catching Dallas in a little lull. I lean to Toronto. There isn't much of a pattern on totals in these Sunday early games, other than that Toronto seems to score their fair share. The line on this game is fair given the way the previous meeting went, and I'd prefer to avoid the total in a game where we might see a quarter of zero focus - too much guessing for my taste.

Jazz @ Nuggets - This line is OFF. Interesting match-up here, with Utah heading from altitude to altitude on the tail end of a back-to-back. I believe, then, that the 2 point adjustment we'll see from the books should be plenty, given Utah's comfort with playing well above sea level. So where is the value, then, if we can't go with a "system" play? Well, one angle worth noting is that these division rivals have already squared off twice this year, and Denver has delivered a merciless clubbing in both games, winning by 9, covering a 5-point spread, and by 10 in Utah as a 7.5-point dog. So, Utah has the double-revenge going. Obviously, as discussed above, Denver has rest on their side, though Utah's game with Milwaukee wasn't exactly a barn-burner. Still, Utah is due for a little bit of a letdown after the huge win against Cleveland, and the cruising victory over the Bucks. I really do not like the contradicting angles. So far, I'm sitting on a pass, but let's keep going. The first game finished at a robust 219 points, well Over the 209 mark set for the game. The next one slipped just beneath ("Under") a 201.5 posted total. I'll be very curious to see where this one opens up. Denver is a perfect 3-0 this season on 3 days of rest, and have scored an average of 116 points in those spots. I expect we'll see the Nuggets running this thing up and down the floor, aware of Utah's potential for fatigue, and fully utilizing their athleticism and 3 days of rest. This is the kind of game where there are so many situational trends butting each other in the head, that it might be best to just dodge the side. Gun to my head, I like Denver despite the double-revenge, as I see the Jazz starting to reach and if Denver can take care of the ball (I trust Chauncey in this spot), they should be trotting to the free throw line all night long. On that note, I like the Over, though we'll see where the line is set. Denver's scored over 100 points in 3 straight, and 6 of 7 in January, so seeing them get to 110 isn't out of the question; the issue is whether Utah can hold up their end of the bargain. Let's wait on a line, but again, I like Denver a little, and the Over only a tiny bit more than the side.

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