Wednesday, February 03, 2010

Bounceback Lite

Few things upset me more than a loss, so you guys know I've been punching away on the keyboard since the very second our Paid Play on the Boston-Miami Under went belly-up. A few technical fouls, a few stupid fouls, and a few possessions of dueling three-pointers, and that game was sunk. Not a very good call, guys, I will admit that, but it was just one game, and we can move forward from that pretty easily. Hell, not only was it just one game, it was just one unit, and we'll make that back on the next game we play!

For those that are just stopping by, I suppose I should lob out there that we are 7-2-1 over our last 10 plays, and a robust 19-10-1 over our last 30! Tough to complain about those numbers!

Sports Wagering

Heat @ Cavaliers - This line is OFF. The Heat come to Cleveland off the big game in Boston, and this is going to be a pretty large line, when it does finally come out. Honestly, this is a very similar spot to the game the Cavs just played with the Grizzlies a couple days back. An opponent coming into town, worn out from a huge game the night before, and ripe for the Cavs to just pick them apart. The big difference in this one is that the Heat have some strong revenge issues to deal with. The Cavs have knocked off the Heat twice this year, both times in Miami, and both times, interestingly, as a 1-point underdog. Before we get too caught up in the double-revenge, though, let's make sure we don't overvalue that aspect. The Cavs have absolutely owned the Heat over the last 3 years, winning 8 of the 9 head-to-head games, and covering 6 of those 9. They're 4-0 against the Heat in Cleveland over those same 3 years, though they failed to cover a few of the heftier home spreads going 2-2 ATS. So, do we really care that Miami is on double-revenge? They were on double-revenge last night in Boston, and covered the spread by a half point. Now, we have to hope and pray the Heat can get the engines fired back up again and try to hang with the hottest team in the NBA. I also wanted to note that over the last 3 years all 4 of those games in Cleveland have stayed Under the posted total. I realize it might be hard to consider another Under after the awful defensive effort the Heat doled out in Boston last night (which cost us dearly), and honestly, as I'm writing this somewhat close to the conclusion of that game, I find it hard to stomach suggesting going back to the well for another Under call, even though I know that's going to be the side with value, precisely because of how many points Cleveland has been scoring, and precisely because of the monster game the Heat and Celtics put together. I expect to see a line favoring the Cavs by right around the double-digit mark, and with all the energy Miami expended in Boston, I'm just not sure they'll have much left. The Cavs have won 9 games in a row, and have covered 5 straight - this team is hotter than hades, and I think you have to at least consider Cleveland. The Cavs have also been locking down on defense, and if you recall, after a hot start for Wade in his last game with Cleveland, he disappeared in the second half. Cleveland is playing like they want to make a statement in each and every game, and while the Boston defense had trouble dealing with Wade, I think Mike Brown has a plan, and I think his inspired Cavs team is going to put the clamps on Wade in the second half once again. I like the Cavs and the Under.

Spurs @ Blazers - This line is OFF. A couple more teams on a back-to-back, courtesy of the sizeable Wednesday card. And this may surprise a few people, but the old, rickety Spurs are the team on double-revenge! Portland handled San Antonio easily here at the Rose Garden way the heck back in early November, then in a huge surprise, beat the Spurs down in Texas 98-94 as a 13 point underdog. Yes, as always, there is the possibility that one team just owns the other, and indeed Portland is 7-2 ATS against the Spurs in the last 9 games, but I think a lot of that has to do with the fact that the Blazers are a team on the rise, and the Spurs are always going to come with a slight premium. In terms of the SU numbers, they're fairly split, though most of the time, the home team is the squad getting it done. Portland has covered the last 4 straight games at home against the Spurs, which is a little disconcerting, given that the Spurs are coming off a win in Sacramento, and the Blazers are coming home off a very poor defensive effort in a loss and failed cover in Utah. So, for what it's worth, the home team is actually doing more of the traveling in this one. Still, if the Spurs continue on this rodeo road-trip without Tony Parker, I have to believe it will catch up with them. They did not close the game against the Kings strong, giving up the cover on a few miracles for the Kings, but I think it's important for us to weigh all the angles. The Spurs have all the revenge, but they are not good on back-to-backs, at just 3-5 ATS, and 1-7 O/U. The Blazers are 8-3 ATS on back-to-backs, so they don't tire easily, and they're actually 8-3 O/U. That does not bode well for a play on the total, though I believe there will be VALUE on the Under, with both teams coming off outrageously high-scoring games yesterday. Thus, I lean Under, especially with the way Portland gets up for these big TV games, and that arena goes nuts! The back-to-back angle butts heads with the double-revenge angle, and the Blazers home dominance of the Spurs butts heads with San Antonio coming in with better momentum. I don't like the side much, but if I had to force a lean, I'd look at the Blazers to get the big win.

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