Saturday, March 27, 2010

Weekend Short Blog #4

Before I get into the nitty-gritty, I just wanted to take a moment to give a powerful "THANK YOU!" to all the guys that continue to show faith in my plays even in a bit of a colder spell, and even if it's the result of blog-related success, your support means a TON to this aspiring new Pro here at Pregame, and I just hope I can continue to GIVE BACK as much as you guys give to me -- with blogs, podcasts, prop bets, advice, and anything else I can provide. So, again, thank you, because without you guys, there would be no Pregame, and no Dan Bebe.

Now, the stuff that makes Dan Bebe angry.

Our last few picks on sides have just been BRUTAL, and I really felt we had a good situational spot for the underdog last night, but sadly, it was just not meant to be, as Rodrigue Beaubois added himself to my "dead to me" list by singlehandedly ruining the Warriors play AND the Caron Butler prop bet. Very frustrating. Beaubois tied the opponent record with NINE three-pointers, scored 40 points, and effectively made an "under" bet on any other Mav a great proposition. That little son of a...

The plan for today is to definitely look at TOTALS before all else, because those have been going extremely well, despite the admitted struggles on side plays. Non Premium and Premium totals are a combined 5-2 this week, and sides are, well, not.

But anger aside, and unfortunately the tone of the blog strongly reflects how the Top Play went (since I write this blog the night before), while this week was just slightly in the negative, it's not a stretch to say that I haven't been happy with the way things have gone over the last 15 days or so. Let's get this sucker turned around PERMANENTLY. We're not getting killed, not by a longshot, but we're not doing any bookie-crushing, and I intend to change that, starting NOW.

Sports Wagering

Kings @ Cavaliers - Cleveland by 13.5 with a total of 197.5. No real lean on the side, as neither team is in a good or bad spot, and this is a ton of points, so I suppose you have to at least give a look to the dog. I like the Under on the total - the Kings continue to struggle to score without Tyreke Evans, and the Cavs' defense isn't going to make life any easier.

Grizzlies @ Bucks - This line is OFF. Most likely because of Bogut. Milwaukee has lost 2 straight, so they're slumping, but a few wins would secure them the 5th spot in the East, and the Grizzlies are basically done for the year. SLIGHT lean to Milwaukee, but not much. Seems like off that ugly game with Miami, the Bucks are going to want to score a few points, so I have a slight lean to the Over, if the line is reasonable.

Pacers @ Hawks - Atlanta by 8 with a total of 207. Obviously, I'm not happy with Atlanta coming off a loss, but with the Lakers coming to town, this is a slight look-ahead spot for the Hawks, and a low spread indicates oddsmakers feel the same. Slight lean to Indiana. The total looks low, but I think it's pretty accurate - if I had to guess, I'd think this one ends at about 209, so the TINIEST lean to the Over.

Raptors @ Heat - This line is OFF. The Heat are actually playing great basketball right now, especially on defense - the Raptors keep getting burned, and they stink on the road. Lean to Miami. Toronto has been struggling to score, but they have dictated the tempo in the 3 previous games with the Heat, somehow. I don't think Miami lets this one turn into a running game, and I lean Under.

Bulls @ Pistons - Detroit by 2 with a total of 198.5. This line is basically saying Chicago has given up on the season, hasn't it? I know they're on back-to-back, but Chicago is in must-win spots, and Detroit is "white flag" mode on 2010. I have to lean Chicago, even though it looks nuts. I'll be honest, on the total, I have no idea what tempo the Pistons are looking to play at right now. No lean on the totals.

Nuggets @ Magic - Orlando by 5.5 with a total of 208.5. Something tells me the Magic win this one, and the final margin is within 1.5 points of the spread; it's not how this one handicaps out, but it's a gut-check type of play. Denver needs to get its head out of its rectum, though, because the Magic have the talent to run all over the Nuggets if Denver keeps trying to run isolation plays. Slight lean to the Magic, and medium lean to the Under, since we know how Denver's been scuffling on offense, and we know how the Magic like to handle big games.

Blazers @ Thunder - Oklahoma by 4.5 with a total of 191.5. The Thunder are coming off a ruthless beating of the Lakers, and I happen to think they're overvalued - lean to Portland to give them all they can handle. Lean to the Blazers. These teams have played great defense against each other this season, so far - the law of averages would seem to indicate a higher scoring game, and Portland tends to run a bit more on back-to-back. Tiny lean to the Over right now, but that could change with new info, so stay tuned on this one.

Suns @ Wolves - Phoenix by 9 with a total of 227.5. Phoenix beat Minnesota by 38 in that crazy 266-point game 2 weeks ago. The Wolves have looked pretty bad lately, and without any good reason to back them, I think you have to start with the road favorite at this time of the season. Microscopic lean to the Suns. The total could very well be higher after the 266 points, but it's not - look for Phoenix to "d-up" a little - lean to the Under.

Spurs @ Celtics - Boston by 3.5 with a total of 192. I'm floored at how little this spread is, but I happen to think it's just a soft line. Boston is a decent value, playing great ball at home, and I know it's obvious, but at this time of the season, the obvious plays are winning pretty consistently. Lean to Boston. The total of 192 is pretty accurate, but I think Boston really locks down in a strong effort - lean to the Under.

Warriors @ Clippers - LA by 5 with a total of 230. Clippers don't even want to be playing any more, but off the horrific loss to Dallas, the Warriors are going to be pissed and set to take out some aggression. Lean to Golden State. The total of 230 seems awfully high considering the Clippers pathetic offense, but something about this number makes me think oddsmakers believe the Clips are going to get sucked into a streetball game, with nothing on the line. Lean to the Over.

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