Wednesday, April 07, 2010

Graduation Day, Combo Blog #3

IT'S GRADUATION DAY!

That's right, guys! After just about 4 months, my "Introductory Period" has come to a close.

Things will remain, more or less, the same. The Dan Bebe you've come to know and love will be right here by your side the same as always. I will continue to write this blog every day, produce the podcast, answer questions morning, noon and night, and give out tons of Free Plays. I do, however, want to take time to note the few changes, so that no one is taken by surprise.

First, daily packages will move to $20. That was a change that was noted right from day one, so no one should be surprised by this.

Second, one day every week, I will sell a 2-Play Package. This Package will still be priced at $20, but will contain two Premium Selection instead of the usual 1.

Third, I will be added into the rotation of 1-Dollar Cappers, starting today! What this means is that one Thursday every 6-8 weeks I will be selling a 1* play for just $1, and there are often secret coupon codes also hidden within the write-up on those $1 plays. Look forward to having you all on board for this one today!

And fourth, some of the rankings of plays will be adjusted. As a Full Pro now, I will no longer be releasing half-unit selections. Thus, every other play will be altered accordingly. The "Grind-Out-a-Profit" plays will be 1* selections, the Standard Daily "Top Plays" will be 2* selections, and "Special" plays will be 3* selections, so that ALL my plays can be accurately tracked by the Pregame system. For those that have been following me for 4 months, you needn't change a thing, just be aware of the numerical shift.

And that, folks, is the story of how Dan Bebe became a Pro - thanks to everyone that has participated in discussions, joined me on plays, and helped me become the exact type of Pro that I want to be.

As far as yesterday, the Suns punched the Spurs right in the gut, with Goran Dragic leading the way, and that makes us now 7-0 in the NBA since Saturday, and 15-4 in the NBA since last Sunday. This is about as hot as we're going to get in any one sport over any 10 day stretch, so let's ride it out, and try to make some coin!

The bad news: we had two MLB plays sucker punch us in the gut with late leads slipping away. I have to say, being up by 3 runs in the Rockies game was a nice spot, and having the lead in the 8th inning on our Cubs play was an even nicer spot. If someone offered me those two situations every day for the rest of the year, I'd take them both every time. Just a little bad luck has set us back 2 days. Tonight, we punch our way through the crummy luck!

Sports Wagering: NBA

Cavaliers @ Bulls - This line is OFF. You have to believe that there will not be a game this entire season where we'll see the Bulls play harder than they do in this game. Something tells me the Cavs actually win this thing in heartbreaking fashion, but if Cleveland is laying points, which they will be if Lebron is playing, then we can still get a little value with Chicago. The Bulls are coming off a loss, at home, to the shorthanded Bucks, so I believe that will create a little value on the home team here, and my only concern is that NBA is such a low-volume sport right now that the sharps will dictate the line's position and work on middling while the rest of us have to watch lines bounce around. In any case, I happen to believe Cleveland's defense is lacking, and I lean Chicago. On the total, if Cleveland isn't focused, that would seemingly mean that the total should rise. I'm pondering a lean to the Over, but I really just don't know where this line is going to open. Let's wait and see.

Clippers @ Kings - Sacramento by 5.5 with a total of 199.5. Clippers coming off a game at home against Portland last night, and we've seen how awful they can be on back-to-back. Sacramento strikes me as one of those teams that just can't quite get it done in the 4th quarter against good teams. The Clippers are not a good team, but to their credit, they showed some fight at home against the Blazers, and actually covered the number. I'm surprised that this line is only 5.5, but I think that because Sacramento has looked bad over the last couple weeks and the Clippers are actually coming off a game that put money in Clips-backers' pockets, any movement we see in this line is going to be money-related, not perception-based. I like the Kings right now, but a stark line move could change my mind. On the total, that would seem to be insanely high, since these teams have played 3 times to final totals of 188, 189, and 191. Will the pace really be quick enough to get over 199.5? The line is fishy, especially with the run of unders the Kings have been on. Let's see where the money comes in on this one, since, and this is complete honesty here, it has all the makings of a public fade.

Lakers @ Nuggets - Denver by 2.5 with a total of 203.5. Denver is coming off a supremely impressive road win over the Thunder, though, admittedly, Oklahoma City might have been a tad tired in the later stages of that game. With that in mind, I'd love to try to find a way to back the Lakers, since this time it's Denver flying back into the altitude. Problem is, I just don't know how much the Lakers care to bump and smash for 48 minutes with a team fighting for the #2 seed in the West. Kobe is going to want to, but can we say the same for someone like Gasol? These games going into the playoffs are all about tune-ups for Phil Jackson's squad, so it's very tough to say. Middle of the season, I'd take Lakers, but this particular timing is a little disconcerting. I certainly can't lean Denver, not on back-to-back, especially if Melo is at all ailing and Kenyon and the Coaches are all missing in action, so I guess I lean LA by default. On the total, both teams are coming off lower-scoring games, but I'm not sure we don't see another grinder. This number is pretty close to accurate, but something tells me it just barely slips Under.

Sports Wagering: MLB

National League

Dodgers (-160) @ Pirates with a total of 8.5; C. Billingsley v. P. Maholm;
Chad Billingsley has an ERA over 6 against Pittsburgh;
Ronnie Belliard has 2 HR and 2 RBI off Maholm;
Brad Ausmus is 2-for-5, Jamey Carroll is 3-for-6, Blake Dewitt is 1-for-2, Andre Ethier is 2-for-6, Rafael Furcal is 5-for-13 with 1 HR and 3 RBI, Reed Johnson is 5-for-9, Matt Kemp is 3-for-8, Manny Ramirez is 2-for-5, and Russ Martin is 3-for-10 - look out!
Paul Maholm is 0-3, 5.59 ERA against the Dodgers;
The current Pirates are 4-for-19 off Billingsley.
I'd love to say the Pirates are a value, but Maholm has been awful against the Dodgers. This line is accurate. That total of 8.5, to me, is a half run low; slight lean to the Over.

Cardinals (-120) @ Reds with a total of 8.5; B. Penny v. B. Arroyo;
Felipe Lopez is a .448 lifetime hitter against Bronson Arroyo in 29 AB, with 2 HR;
Since 2005, Albert Pujols has faced Arroyo 43 times, he's batting .326 with 3 HR and 10 RBI;
Colby Rasmus is 4-for-9 with a HR, and Brendan Ryan is 5-for-12;
Brandon Phillips is 5-for-12 off Brad Penny.
Brad Penny is 7-2 against Cincinnati in his career, but as a big question mark, he's a guy I'd watch in one start before laying road favorite money. Bronson Arroyo is hugely streaky, if he starts the year strong, we can back him for a month.

Phillies (-160) @ Nationals with a total of 9.5; K. Kendrick v. C. Stammen;
The entire Phillies lineup is 0-for-4 off Stammen;
Ryan Zimmerman is 6-for-11 with a HR and 2 RBI off Kendrick;
Josh Willingham is 3-for-9 with 1 HR and 3 RBI;
Willy Taveras is 4-for-10, and Willie Harris is 4-for-10 with a HR and 2 RBI.
This is a monster value on the home team, considering the Phils have never seen Stammen. Even 3 or 4 decent innings out of the youngster would be acceptable. Lean to Washington. Also, lean to the Over, though it's a high number already.

Cubs @ Braves (-185) with a total of 8; R. Wells v. T. Hanson;
Not a ton of experience against the starters on either side, which makes me think this one has a shot to stay Under, and this early in the season, that's a ton of chalk to lay on a pitcher who will probably go 5 to 6 innings.

Marlins @ Mets (-110) with a total of 9; N. Robertson v. J. Niese;
Luis Castillo is a lifetime 7-for-17 batter off Nate Robertson.
Another game without a ton of historical data. This price is a coin-flip, and to me, the game itself is a coin-flip. Pass.

American League

Blue Jays @ Rangers (-145) with a total of 9; R. Romero v. C.J. Wilson;
John Buck is 2-for-3 with 1 HR and 3 RBI off C.J. Wilson;
Aaron Hill is 3-for-6, and Adam Lind is 3-for-4 off Wilson;
Ryan Garko, Nelson Cruz, Vlad Guerrero and David Murphy are a combined 8-for-12 off Ricky Romero.
Somehow, Romero is 0-1, 1.42 ERA against Texas, but you can see some guys have hit him hard. We don't know how Wilson's going to do as a starter, either, so probably a pass on the side, and a tiny lean to the Over.

Tigers @ Royals (-110) with a total of 9.5; D. Willis v. Brian Bannister;
Johnny Damon is 6-for-8 lifetime off Bannister with a HR and 4 RBI;
Miguel Cabrera has homered twice, and Carlos Guillen is 5-for-12;
Bannister is 4-2 against the Tigers, 2.09 ERA.
The D-Train supposedly looked a bit better this spring, but the fact that we're getting a career Tiger-killer at "standard" juice seems like a potential move. Lean to Kansas City. This total assumes Dontrelle is going to get rocked, I'd avoid it.

Mariners @ Athletics (-165) with a total of 7.5; D. Fister v. Brett Anderson;
Ichiro is 6-for-9 off Anderson, and Mike Sweeney went 7-for-15 with a HR;
Chone Figgins is 3-for-8 off Anderson.
The A's haven't seen much of Doug Fister, and he was decent last year in limited action, and really, with a total of 7.5, this is a steep price to pay for a game that oddsmakers don't believe will be a runaway. Brett Anderson is good, though. I would look at the Under, believe it or not.

Orioles @ Rays (-205) with a total of 9.5; B. Matusz v. J. Niemann;
Brian Roberts is 8-for-18 with 2 HR and 4 RBI off Jeff Niemann;
Nick Markakis is 6-for-16 with a HR and 3 RBI;
Matt Wieters is 5-for-7 with 3 RBI, and Ty Wigginton is 3-for-6 with a HR;
Ben Zobrist is 2-for-3 off Brian Matusz with a HR and 4 RBI.
Wow, quite a price for Jeff Niemann against the one team that has given him some issues. The value is definitely with Baltimore. I'm not so sure Matusz doesn't dominate this game, in fact.

Indians @ White Sox (-150) with a total of 8.5; J. Masterson v. G. Floyd;
Jhonny Peralta is batting .412 off Floyd with 2 HR and 6 RBI;
Shin-Soo Choo is 4-for-10 with 4 RBI, and Asdrubal Cabrera is 2-for-5;
Justin Masterson pitched a decent game in his one effort against the White Sox, but Gavin Floyd is proven. This line is accurate. Tough to know how the scoring will shake out, it being so early in the season.

Twins @ Angels (-145) with a total of 9.5; K. Slowey v. J. Pineiro;
Joe Mauer is an absurd .722 lifetime batter off Pineiro, in 18 ABs;
Justin Morneau is 6-for-14 with 3 HR and 7 RBI;
Bobby Abreu and Howie Kendrick are both batting over .400 off Slowey with 1 HR.
Pineiro has made huge strides in his career since most of his appearances against the Twins, and he's had success against the rest of the lineup besides the two big lefties above, but this game is a coin-flip, so the value is with the dog. I think we're getting an inflated total because neither of these guys is a big name.

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