Thursday, April 15, 2010

Live from Vegas

It took 10 innings, but the Dodgers pulled it out, and got us a split on Premium Plays.

Being in Vegas means a VERY short intro paragraph, let's get down to the numbers!

Sports Wagering

National League

Astros @ Cubs (-180) with a total of N/A; F. Paulino vs. C. Silva;
Derrek Lee and Alfonso Soriano have homered off Paulino in 2 and 1 AB, respectively.
Carlos Silva's back, baby! Okay, maybe not, but he did have a nice first start to the season. Silva's a strike-thrower, and that seems to be enough to retire the Astros lately. I'm honestly pretty floored at how huge of a favorite Silva is, here, and with the Astros snapping a losing streak last night, I would definitely look at Houston to nab a second win on the season at a huge dog price.

Reds (-110) @ Pirates with a total of 8.5; M. Leake vs. Z. Duke;
Joey Votto is 10-for-16 off Zach Duke with 4 RBI;
Scott Rolen is 7-for-16 with 1 HR and 4 RBI;
Ramon Hernandez is 4-for-7, Drew Stubbs is 4-for-12 with a HR, and Jonny Gomes is 4-for-12.
All we really know about Mike Leake is that he had a decent first outing. What we know about Zach Duke is that he's a solid control pitcher that has won his first 2 outings. Well, taking a peek at the Reds lineup might make folks a little nervous about backing Duke, and while it feels like the Pirates are going to have a slightly better season, this is not a good value today. Reds or nothin'.

Marlins @ Phillies (-240) with a total of 8.5; A. Sanchez vs. R. Halladay;
Dan Uggla is 3-for-4, Hanley Ramirez is 2-for-4, Chris Coghlan is 2-for-2 and Wes Helms is 2-for-3 off ace Roy Halladay;
Ryan Howard is 5-for-14 with 2 HR and 3RBI off Anibal Sanchez;
Carlos Ruiz is 4-for-10;
Chase Utley is 7-for-18 with 3 RBI off Sanchez;
Roy Halladay has quickly become the most overpriced pitcher in the Majors, courtesy of beating up on the Nats and Astros. Now, let's be fair - the Phillies are mashing the cover off the ball, but if Halladay doesn't pitch a complete game 3-hitter, this game has value on the side of the dog. The big concern, though, is whether that Florida pen can pitch 2-3 innings and hold the Phillies to just a run, or so. I happen to think there are better games out there.

Brewers (-155) @ Nationals with a total of 8.5; Y. Gallardo vs. J. Lannan;
Corey Hart is 2-for-4 with a HR and 2 RBI off Lannan;
Willie Harris and Wil Nieves are each 2-for-5 off Gallardo.
Yovani has defeated the Nats twice, but I'm not sure the statistical evidence is truly there to fade John Lannan. The Brewers hit Lannan hard in brief exposure, and if Washington wasn't coming home off a win, I might be inclined to pay the fee and back the ace, but with Washington potentially getting a tiny bit of momentum and Gallardo using way too many pitches early in games, this one is a question mark at first look.

Rockies @ Braves (-130) with a total of 8.5; J. Hammel vs. D. Lowe;
Brad Hawpe and Todd Helton are each batting .324 off Lowe since 2005 with 5 combined HR and 14 combined RBI;
Chris Iannetta is 4-for-12 off Lowe;
Jason Hammel is 0-1 against Atlanta, posting an ERA of 8.00.
The Braves beat up on Hammel last year in Coors, but as folks may recall, he is a significantly better pitcher on the road than at home, and he did make a quality start in Atlanta, as well. Will 3 runs in 6 innings be good enough with the hot Atlanta bats? I'd love to say there's some value in the dog, here, but really, there isn't. The Braves should be tired from getting back pretty late, so I'd probably recommend digging deeper or passing.

Mets @ Cardinals (-250) with a total of 8; O. Perez vs. C. Carpenter;
Jeff Francoeur is 3-for-10 off Carpenter with 1 HR and 2 RBI;
Luis Castillo is 3-for-10, as well;
Felipe Lopez is 6-for-19 with 1 HR and 4 RBI off Oliver Perez;
Yadier Molina is 5-for-12 with 1 HR and 3 RBI off Perez;
Albert Pujols is 6-for-13 with 2 HR and 5 RBI.
This breakdown is pretty simple. The Cardinals lost yesterday to the Astros, and Carpenter is most likely looking to bounce back off a poor start against the Brewers on ESPN. Oliver Perez is awful, maybe the most overpaid healthy starter in the Bigs. There is zero value anywhere in this game.

Diamondbacks (-110) @ Padres with a total of 8; E. Jackson vs. J. Garland;
Stephen Drew is 3-for-6 off Garland with a HR;
Adrian Gonzalez is 1-for-1 with a 3-run jack off Jackson.
Not a great deal of information here, as Garland pitched for the D'backs, so he hasn't seen a ton of his teammates. In limited action, he's 2-2, 6.67 ERA against his former club. Edwin Jackson is 0-2, 7.53 ERA against the Padres, but a lot of that was when Jackson was in the NL. This one is a toss-up. I know Petco plays huge, and I know Garland is one of those pitchers that always battles, but I might look at the "over" before either of the sides.

Giants @ Dodgers (-145) with a total of 9; T. Wellemeyer vs. V. Padilla;
Aubrey Huff is 8-for-12 with a HR and 7 RBI off Padilla since 2005;
Edgar Renteria is 5-for-10 with a HR and 2 RBI off Padilla since '05;
Reed Johnson (who probably won't play) is 5-for-15 off Wellemeyer.
Padilla is clunking his way to an 0-1, 11.42 ERA out of the gates, and he is historically a guy that doesn't hit his top velocity until it starts to really warm up. The Giants and Dodgers rivalry seems to lead to road teams playing very strong games, and I happen to believe the Giants are not only a live dog here, they might win this game easily, believe it or not.

American League

White Sox (-145) @ Indians with a total of 9; M. Buerhle vs. M. Talbot;
Shin-Soo Choo is 5-for-12 with a HR;
Mike Redmond is batting .432 since 2005 off Buerhle;
Jhonny Peralta is batting .321 with 2 HR with 6 RBI off Buerhle over the last 5 years.
Buerhle sort of became a "back at home, fade on the road" pitcher last year, but now we have to reassess and see how he handles 2010. Buerhle is 2-0 at home so far, and while I'd love to tell everyone to fade Mitch Talbot, I believe that's too easy. Let's see how Buerhle pitches on the road at least one time, especially with Cleveland posting a nice comeback win last night and feeling good about themselves.

Rangers @ Yankees (-210) with a total of 9; C. Wilson vs. C. Sabathia;
Michael Young is 5-for-13 off C.C.;
Nick Swisher is 5-for-13 with a HR off C.J. Wilson.
I'm actually a tad surprised how little C.C. has seen of these Rangers, considering he's 7-3 against them in his career, and wasn't in the NL for all that long (hah). Sabathia is coming off a dominant performance against the Rays, and Wilson is coming off a similarly impressive showing in his debut as a starter in 2010. The Yankees are a tough nut, and at this price, there's no value there. I don't think the Rangers win, but I do think they have a better than 33% shot, which is what this line would indicate.

Angels (-115) @ Blue Jays with a total of 8.5; J. Weaver vs. S. Marcum;
Maicer Izturis is 4-for-11 off Marcum;
Reggie Willits is 5-for-9 off Marcum;
Adam Lind is 5-for-12 with a HR and 2 RBI off Weaver;
Lyle Overbay is 6-for-16 with a HR and 2 RBI.
Both of these hurlers have nice career numbers against this particular opponent. Weaver is 5-1, 3.00 ERA against Toronto, and Marcum, despite missing a year due to surgery, is 2-1, 3.04 ERA against the Angels. Toronto's been doing most of their scoring with the longball, and unfortunately, Weaver does give some up with his 4-seamer. I might take a peek at the Under.

Rays @ Red Sox (-165) with a total of 9.5; W. Davis vs. J. Beckett;
Willy Aybar is 4-for-7 off Josh Beckett;
Carl Crawford is batting .306 off Beckett since 2005;
B.J. Upton is 6-for-20 off Beckett.
Wade Davis got smoked for an ERA of 27 in his brief work against the Red Sox, and I wonder if this isn't just a total "avoid" game. Beckett doesn't usually start the year quickly, though his 7-4 career mark against Tampa Bay definitely gives credibility to that line. The Rays have a bad bullpen, but they've been squeaking by against the slumping Orioles. Lucky scheduling, it seems. Boston should crush Tampa not only in this game, but in the series.

Royals @ Twins (-115) with a total of 7.5; Z. Greinke vs. S. Baker;
Delmon Young is 4-for-11 with a HR and 5 RBI;
Chris Getz is 2-for-6, Jason Kendall is 3-for-10, and Mitch Maier is 4-for-12.
Greinke at a dog price? That's how far the Royals pen has brought this line! Scott Baker is a good pitcher, make no mistake, and the Twinkies are rolling to start 2010, but it is just mind-boggling that Greinke is a dog against a pitcher that doesn't really qualify as a top-tier starter. I don't know if I can trust the Royals pen enough to make a play on this one or on the under. Stay tuned.

Orioles @ Athletics (-155) with a total of 7.5; K. Millwood vs. D. Braden;
Dallas Braden, somehow, is 4-1 against the Orioles with an ERA of 1.32;
Mark Ellis bats .379 off Kevin Millwood;
Ryan Sweeney is 5-for-12 with a HR off Millwood.
Kevin Millwood has continued his resurgence with a strong few starts to open the season, only to see them squandered by his punchless team. I don't know that the A's should be -155 favorites here, even though Baltimore stinks, so I'd have to look at the O's or the Under in this one. It is troublesome that Nick Markakis and Adam Jones are a combined 0-for-19 off Braden.

Tigers @ Mariners (-180) with a total of 7; J. Bonderman vs. F. Hernandez;
Miguel Cabrera is 6-for-11 off Hernandez;
Johnny Damons is 8-for-13 with 1 HR and 4 RBI off King Felix;
Chone Figgins is 5-for-11 off Bonderman;
Ichiro has hit .364 off Bonderman.
Bonderman made a splash in his first start of 2010, looking fairly healthy coming off a season lost to a clot in his pitching arm caused by a rib pressing on a vein. We all know what Felix Hernandez can do, and now the price on his games is starting to reflect that. The Tigers have been pushing across more runs than I expected, I'll admit that, but this game is probably where it should be.

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