Friday, April 09, 2010

Weekend Short Combo Blog #1

Well, I can't claim I watched the entire game, but I checked out the final few minutes, and read the recaps, and it sounds like things got a little, let's say, "tense" in Portland, and if you needed a pretty simple way to look at the game, the Blazers had FOUR three-point tries in the final 30 seconds, missed all four, and it was just one of those nights. It happens.

We did hit our MLB play yesterday, so only minor losses, and we've still posted 9 of 12 winning days, and continue to roll along!

Slightly abridged weekend blog, though still PLENTY of baseball stats, and the typical complement of NBA leans.

Sports Wagering: NBA

Nets @ Pacers - Indiana by 9.5 with a total of 208.5. Potential Indiana letdown, but Jersey hasn't given ANY effort on the road since they hit 10 wins. Lean to Indy, and lean to Under, as I strongly believe fatigue and lack of focus leads to some slower possessions.

Pistons @ Bobcats - This line is OFF. Charlotte actually has the tougher travel schedule, but from a motivational standpoint, based on back-to-back performances, if Charlotte can still make a move on 6th place, I lean Bobcats; if not, pass. Lean to the Over on the total.

Hawks @ Wizards - This line is OFF. Totally worthless game, here. Hawks are resting starters, Wizards are long since eliminated. Maximum Pass on the side. Slight lean to the Under, if indeed the Hawks are relying on big men to get it done, and Washington continues to play a slow, methodical (see: ugly) game.

Sixers @ Grizzlies - Memphis by 7 with a total of 206. Another meaningless one, though I have this weird feeling that the Sixers steal a rare late-season win. The Grizzlies look like they're in full-on letdown mode. Lean to Philly, but barely. The total of 206 looks high, but as both teams stop caring, defense goes down the drain. Tiny lean to the Over.

Celtics @ Bucks - Milwaukee by 1 with a total of 190. I honestly don't know what to expect here. I happen to think the Bucks want it more, so I'd offer a tiny lean in their direction, and we all know how impressive they've been on back-to-backs. Lean to the Over, since I don't see Boston focused on defense.

Spurs @ Nuggets - This line is OFF. 4th in 5 nights for Spurs. Jeff from Indy can finish this write-up by himself! Lean to Nuggets, and lean to Under, as I don't see San Antonio cracking 95 points, and this total will likely be up around 200.

Mavericks @ Kings - This line is OFF. Dallas won't be taking anyone lightly in the final few games, here. The Kings, off that easy win over the Clippers, will be in their typical 4th quarter meltdown form. Slight, tiny, microscopic lean to the Mavs. This total is going to come down to whether the Kings can score, and I honestly don't know. No lean on the total.

Warriors @ Clippers - This line is OFF. The Warriors got their Coach his record, but for some reason, I still think they play with some fire here. Or maybe I just think the Clippers are worthless. Either way, slight lean to the boys from Oaktown. Lean to the Over, if it's less than last time, but that number is going to dictate the play.

Sports Wagering: MLB

National League

Cubs @ Reds (-130) with a total of 8.5; C. Zambrano vs. A. Harang;
Mike Fontenot is 7-for-18 off Harang with 3 HR and 7 RBI;
Aramis Ramirez is batting .310 off Harang over the last 5 years, with 3 HR and 7 RBI;
Marlon Byrd is 1-for-3 with 1 HR, Derrek Lee has over 5 HR, Xavier Nady is batting .370 with a HR, Geovany Soto is 5-for-15 with a HR, and Kosuke Fukudome is 6-for-15;
Joey Votto is 8-for-20 off Big Z, and Jay Bruce is 3-for-10 with a HR.
I actually think Zambrano bounces back here at a dog price, and he's always pitched well against the Reds. Lean to Chicago. The ball travels well in the daytime, and I wouldn't be surprised to see 9 or 10 runs put up, going over the total.

Nationals @ Mets (-130) with a total of 9; J. Lannan vs. O. Perez;
Ryan Zimmerman is 7-for-20 off Oliver Perez;
John Lannan holds a 3.62 ERA against the Mets;
Perez is a brutal 3-5, 7.14 ERA against the Nats;
Jason Bay is 4-for-7 with 1 HR and 2 RBI off Lannan;
Jeff Francoeur is 11-for-22 with 1 HR and 6 RBI off Lannan.
Francoeur and Bay could change how the Mets hit Lannan, but any time you can get underdog odds against Oliver Perez, you have to at least take a peek. Tiny lean to Washington, and tiny lean to the Over.

Cardinals @ Brewers (-155) with a total of 8.5; C. Carpenter vs. Y. Gallardo;
Albert Pujols is 3-for-10 with a HR off Gallardo;
Prince Fielder is 4-for-11 with a HR and 2 RBI off Carpenter;
Ryan Braun is 0-for-6 off Carpenter.
I'm honestly a little surprised this total is above 8, given the two pitchers. Gallardo doesn't have great career numbers against the Cards, but a Ryan Ludwick homer did most of the damage. This is a monster value on Carpenter, so I do lean slightly to the Cards, but something feels off about this game. Slight lean to Under, as well.

Phillies (-145) @ Astros with a total of 9.5; J. Moyer vs. F. Paulino;
Ben Francisco is a perfect 3-for-3 off Felipe Paulino;
Hunter Pence is 3-for-6 off Moyer with 2 HR and 4 RBI.
Hunter Pence might be the difference in this game, believe it or not. There's no chance I lay 145 with Moyer on the road, but can the 'Stros score a run? Slight lean to the home team, no lean on the total.

Dodgers @ Marlins (-150) with a total of 8.5; V. Padilla vs. J. Johnson;
Andre Ethier is 5-for-10 off Johnson.
Somehow, the Dodgers have given Johnson some trouble, but to me, this line is fair. Pass on the side, pass on the total.

Pirates @ Diamondbacks (-250) with a total of 8.5; D. McCutchen vs. D. Haren;
Garrett Jones is a perfect 3-for-3 off Danny Haren.
A big, fat "no thank you" to backing Haren at this price, and while he is 3-0 against the Pirates, he has an ERA just over 4 against them. Maybe minimal value with the Pirates, who are starting the year with some confidence, but I'd probably pass. Pass on the total, too.

Padres @ Rockies (-170) with a total of 10; M. Latos vs. J. Hammel;
David Eckstein and Tony Gwynn Jr are each 3-for-8 off Hammel;
Nick Hundley is 4-for-7 with a HR off Hammel;
Matt Stairs is 5-for-8 off Hammel with 2 HR and 4 RBI, but will he play?
Ian Stewart homered in 1 of his 2 AB off Latos.
This is actually a pretty good deal for the Padres. Will they win? Maybe, but Hammel struggled like crazy at home last year, which means bullpens will be on the hook. Lean to Padres, and the total is pretty accurate.

Braves (-130) @ Giants with a total of 8.5; D. Lowe vs. T. Wellemeyer;
Aaron Rowand is batting .471 off Lowe since 2005.
Lowe has decent numbers against San Francisco, presumably from all his time with the Dodgers, and Wellemeyer pitched well in his brief exposure to Atlanta. No real lean on the side, which looks fair, but the total makes me think Wellemeyer pitches better than folks expect. Slight lean to the Under.

American League

Indians @ Tigers (-176) with a total of 9.5; M. Talbot vs. J. Bonderman;
Mitch Talbot has an ERA near 20.00 against Detroit, but LIMITED action;
Shin-Soo Choo is 3-for-8 off Bonderman, Travis Hafner has homered 3 times.
The day I lay 176 with Jeremy Bonderman is the day I quit betting. No lean on the side, as these guys could both give up 4 in the first inning. Slight lean to the Over, but a warm day would help our cause in the Midwest.

Twins (-130) @ White Sox with a total of 9; S. Baker vs. F. Garcia;
Joe Mauer is a quiet 6-for-18 off Freddy Garcia, Delmon Young is 1-for-2 with a HR;
Paul Konerko has 3 HR off Baker;
Mark Teahen is 9-for-27, and A.J. Pierzynski is 6-for-20 off Baker.
The White Sox have been able to put up runs against Baker in the past, and it's rare we'll get home dog value in this series. Garcia is a battler, so I think you have to at least peek at the big guy. Slight lean to Sox, slight lean to Over.

Yankees (-145) @ Rays with a total of 9.5; C. Sabathia vs. W. Davis;
A-Rod accounted for most of the Yanks' damage against Davis the one time they squared off, going 2-for-3 with a HR and 3 RBI;
B.J. Upton is 6-for-14 with 2 HR and 6 RBI off Sabathia;
Ben Zobrist is 6-for-13 with 1 HR and 4 RBI;
Evan Longoria is 3-for-6 with 2 HR and 4 RBI;
Jason Bartlett is a .314 batter off Sabathia with 1 HR and 3 RBI.
Pretty strong numbers for the Rays off Sabathia, though he's 7-3 against them in his career. Wade Davis is very, very good, and people will learn that. Lean to Tampa Bay, none on the total.

Mariners (-145) @ Rangers with a total of 8.5; F. Hernandez vs. M. Harrison;
Jose Lopez is 3-for-10 and Ichiro is 4-for-9 off Harrison;
Michael Young is a career .346 hitter off Hernandez with 1 HR and 6 RBI;
Vlad Guerrero is batting .302 off King Felix since 2005 with 2 HR and 8 RBI;
Ryan Garko is 3-for-6, Chris Davis is 6-for-20 with a HR, and Nelson Cruz is 7-for-24 with a HR.
I truly wish Matt Harrison inspired more confidence, because Texas can beat Hernandez. "Tilt" towards the home dog, and slight look at the Over, but I'm far from convinced.

Blue Jays @ Orioles (-155) with a total of 9; D. Eveland vs. D. Hernandez;
Alex Gonzalez is 2-for-3 off Hernandez with a HR.
Extremely limited action against one another, but having met Dana Eveland (and, true story, watching him pass gas while his bullpen-mates threw side sessions), I don't have a ton of confidence. He's a trademark 4A type of ballplayer. David Hernandez isn't too impressive either, and -155 is crazy to put on a guy this bad. No lean on the side, lean to the Over.

Red Sox (-120) @ Royals with a total of 7.5; J. Beckett vs. Z. Greinke;
Victor Martinez is a career .400 batter off Greinke from his time with Cleveland, with 1 HR and 8 RBI;
Marco Scutaro is 6-for-13 off Greinke with 4 RBI;
Yuny Betancourt is 6-for-13 off Beckett with 1 HR and 3 RBI;
Mitch Maier is 4-for-9, and Scott Podsednik is 4-for-7 off Beckett.
There seems to be a few numbers to make you think runs will get scored, but Beckett is 5-0, 2.03 against KC in his career, and Greinke has a 2.49 ERA against Boston. Royals bullpen meltdown yet again in this one? Lean to the Over.

Athletics @ Angels (-155) with a total of 8.5; B. Sheets vs. J. Weaver;
Gabe Gross is 3-for-7 with a HR off Weaver, but that's about it.
Weaver is 3-3, 2.71 ERA against Oakland.
Ben Sheets looked solid in his first game with Oakland at home, how about on the road? This price is too high to back the home team, and not really enough on Sheets for me to take a flier on Oakland. No leans on the side, slight lean to the Under.

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