Tuesday, May 11, 2010

Wait, No Playoffs?

I know 50% of my job is to stay positive, but between the "Left-on-Base" numbers in that Padres-Giants game, and the Cavs suffering their worst Playoff loss in franchise history, well, it's been a tough stretch.

We're taught that if we have nothing nice to say, we shouldn't say anything at all, and right now, I have nothing nice to say about myself. My plays are about as pungent as a skunk orgy. 0-3 last night, 2-10 last 12. Show me a capper that promotes THAT record, and I'll show you a man living under a bridge on bread crumbs and sewer leavings.

The good news? It can't get any worse. Sometimes the gambling world likes to deliver a swift kick to the nads, and our job is to find some protective wear and kick back.

Sports Wagering: MLB

National League

Reds @ Pirates (-110) with a total of 8.5; H. Bailey vs. Z. Duke;
Jonny Gomes is 4-for-12 with an RBI off Duke;
Ramon Hernandez is 4-for-7 off Duke;
Scott Rolen is 7-for-16 with a HR and 4 RBI off Duke;
Drew Stubbs is 4-for-12 with a HR off Duke;
Joey Votto is 10-for-16 with 4 RBI off Duke;
Ryan Doumit is 3-for-8 off Bailey;
Andrew McCutchen is 4-for-9 off Bailey.
Don't look now, but 0-2, 7.24 Homer Bailey is a perfect 4-0, 2.13 ERA against the Pirates. That's a great stat break, since his poor start to 2010 is giving some value on the road team, and his solid career numbers give us confidence in the Reds. Duke is 3-6 in his career against Cincinnati, and very hit-or-miss, but with those 5 potential position players getting in there and taking some licks, I think the Reds have a nice shot.

Braves @ Brewers (-155) with a total of 8.5; D. Lowe vs. Y. Gallardo;
Chipper Jones is 2-for-6 with a HR and 2 RBI off Gallardo;
Nate McLouth is 6-for-19 off Gallardo;
Craig Counsell is 10-for-25 with 4 RBI off Lowe since '05;
Corey Hart is 6-for-16 with a HR and 3 RBI off Lowe since '05.
Derek Lowe has nice career numbers against the Brew Crew, but Gallardo can do him one better. Yovani is 2-0 against the Braves, with an ERA of just 0.81. Lowe is 3-1 against Milwaukee, ERA of 3.25. Lowe is having a bad 2010, Gallardo is throwing too many pitches, but he's getting people out. This line looks pretty fair to me, maybe even a tiny value on Gallardo if the Brewers offense could succeed in 2-3 straight games.

Nationals @ Mets (-170) with a total of 8.5; C. Stammen vs. M. Pelfrey;
Ian Desmond is 3-for-6 with a HR off Pelfrey;
Willy Taveras is 4-for-10 off Pelfrey with 2 RBI;
Josh Willingham is 7-for-17 with 2 HR and 6 RBI off Pelfrey;
Angel Pagan is 3-for-6 off Stammen;
David Wright is 3-for-8 off Stammen.
Pelfrey actually doesn't have a great history with the Nationals, but this giant line certainly reflects his 4-1, 2.65 ERA. That being said, he's coming back to Earth just a little after an incredible start. If we weren't going to have to back Craig Stammen to fade Pelfrey, it might be worth noting, but this one looks like a passer.

Marlins @ Cubs (-125) with a total of N/A; C. Volstad vs. C. Silva;
Mike Fontenot is 4-for-11 with a HR off Volstad;
Aramis Ramirez is 4-for-8 with a HR and 2 RBI off Volstad.
Both of these pitchers have decent numbers against this particular opponent, Volstad 0-0, 2.81 ERA, and Silva 2-1, 3.28 ERA. Silva continues to pitch relatively well to open 2010, and Volstad continues to be just one step down from good. The Cubs win games when Silva's on the mount, so this might be considered a deal on him, but I'm not sure I'm on board the Silva-train just yet.

Phillies (-120) @ Rockies with a total of 11; J. Moyer vs. J. Hammel;
Raul Ibanez is 4-for-8 with a HR off Hammel;
Shane Victorino is 3-for-5 off Hammel;
Brad Hawpe is 3-for-7 with a HR off Moyer;
Todd Helton is 4-for-11 with 2 RBI off Moyer since '05;
Miguel Olivo is 6-for-13 with 2 RBI off Moyer since '05;
Ryan Spilborghs is 6-for-11 with 2 HR an 6 RBI off Moyer.
There's a reason this total is stratospheric. Hammel is 0-2 this year with a 9.16 ERA. Moyer has pitched well this year, but he's 1-5 with a 6.16 ERA against the Rox. I desperately want to play the home team, but Hammel has just been unbelievably poor. So, do we dare play the Over? I know I don't like the Under, that's for sure. This one is Rockies, Over, or nothing, but needs more work to see if there's truly any value here.

Phillies @ Rockies (gm2).
No information provided right now.

Astros @ Cardinals (-175) with a total of 8; W. Rodriguez vs. K. Lohse;
Pedro Feliz is 4-for-12 off Lohse with 4 RBI;
Hunter Pence is 9-for-25 off Lohse with 2 RBI;
Matt Holliday is 6-for-19 with 2 HR and 3 RBI off Wandy.
The interesting note about Wandy Rodriguez, besides the fact that he's 3-10 lifetime against the Cardinals, is that he has actually held Albert Pujols in check. Unfortunately, Lohse has been dominant against the Astros (2.95 career ERA), and the Astros can barely put a ball in play, let alone score. There's value on Houston's side, but it's a true longshot. Probably a pass.

Dodgers (-125) @ D'backs with a total of 9.5; H. Kuroda vs. E. Jackson;
Casey Blake is 4-for-10 off Jackson in the AL;
Nick Green is 2-for-4 with a HR off Jackson;
Conor Jackson is 3-for-9 off Kuroda.
Hiroki pitched against Arizona already once this year, and allowed just 2 earned runs in 7 innings. He did not factor into the decision thanks to a wild Dodger comeback, but damn if this guy isn't rolling right now. You have to love Kuroda if you like a pitcher that just never gives in. He throws about 7 different pitches, and when he's on his game, he can be very tough to hit. This line is eerily low. I want to back the Dodgers, but something fishy is going on, with Jackson firmly at 1-4, 7.32 ERA this year, just this short of a dog against the "big, bad Dodgers"?

Padres @ Giants (-160) with a total of 7.5; C. Richard vs. M. Cain;
Adrian Gonzalez is batting .341 off Cain with 2 HR and 8 RBI since '05;
Yorvit Torrealba is 8-for-24 off Cain with a HR and 3 RBI;
Juan Uribe is a perfect 2-for-2 off Richard with a HR.
Clayton Richard didn't pitch well against the Giants in the short time he's seen them. Cain has a 2.91 ERA against the Padres, but just a 4-6 record. Cain's issue is always run support, but with Richard not having proven himself against the Giants yet, this line is probably pretty fair.

American League

Yankees @ Tigers (game 1); J. Vazquez vs. R. Porcello;
Nick Swisher has a HR and 2 RBI in 2 AB against Porcello;
Miguel Cabrera is 8-for-19 with 3 HR and 7 RBI off Vazquez since '05;
Johnny Damon is 5-for-9 off Vazquez since '05 with 3 RBI.
If Rick Porcello could get his act together, this would be a great time to back the Tigers, but the kid is deep, deep in a sophomore slump. And then this total of 10 is already so high. Tough game, but I suppose if I had to lean anywhere, I'd lean to the dog and to the Over.

Yankees @ Tigers (game 2); P. Hughes vs. J. Bonderman;
Miguel Cabrera is 3-for-6 off Phil Hughes.
Despite his 3-7 record against New York, the current crop of Yankees hasn't seen much of Bonderman over the last 5 years. That doesn't mean I trust him, and you guys know how little I like dabbling in doubleheaders, especially when I'm seeing a few games that I'm almost willing to play without watching line moves. Yeah, that confident.

White Sox @ Twins (-115) with a total of 8; J. Danks vs. C. Pavano;
A.J. Pierzynski is 4-for-9 with an RBI off Pavano since '05;
Alex Rios is 4-for-12 with a HR off Pavano since '05;
Michael Cuddyer is 16-for-30 with 5 HR and 11 RBI off Danks;
Brendan Harris is 9-for-27 off Danks;
Joe Mauer is 10-for-29 with 2 RBI off Danks.
Danks is having a solid start to 2010, but his 4-5, 5.13 ERA against the Twinkies does give me some pause. More pause, you ask? Yes, Pavano's 3-2, 2.86 ERA mark against the White Sox is another reason to wonder if this line is either a gift for Twins-backers, or screwy. It could very well be deflated because Danks is 3-1, 1.98 ERA so far this season, but this one definitely requires more digging. There's a play here, and we'll find it.

Blue Jays @ Red Sox (-115) with a total of 9.5; S. Marcum vs. T. Wakefield;
Lyle Overbay is 7-for-22 with a HR and 4 RBI off Wakefield since '05;
Adrian Beltre was 6-for-13 with 2 HR and 5 RBI off Marcum before 2010;
Mieke Lowell is 5-for-13 with 3 RBI off Marcum;
Victor Martinez is 4-for-8 with a HR and 2 RBI off Marcum;
Jason Varitek is 4-for-10 off Marcum.
I was really hoping we'd get a Josh Beckett sighting in this set, since Toronto just clubs that joker. Instead, we get Wakefield, which does give us a low line if we want Boston, or forces us to potentially pay chalk to back Marcum. Marcum tossed 7 innings of 1-run ball earlier this year against the Sox in a game the Jays lost 2-1. Can Wakefield hold the Jays to just a run? This might be a spot we could take Toronto.

Mariners (-112) @ Orioles with a total of 9; R. Rowland-Smith vs. B. Bergesen;
Franklin Gutierrez is 4-for-8 off Bergesen;
Ichiro is 4-for-11 off Bergesen.
This game, flat out, does not interest me. Rowland-Smith is not having a very good start, and Bergesen's is just as bad, though he somehow has 2 wins. I suppose the only number worth noting is that Bergesen has a 3.42 ERA against the Mariners, and Smith has a 6.75 ERA against the Orioles, but it's limited action all the way around. There might be a tiny bit of value on the home dog, here, but it's a match-up that just keeps yelling at me to pass.

Rays (-115) @ Angels with a total of 8; D. Price vs. J. Weaver;
This is the marquee match-up of the day, or I suppose it's definitely in the top 2. Jered Weaver and David Price, both 4-1, Price with the slightly better ERA, but each with some tremendous numbers. Price is 0-1 against the Angels, but he's a new pitcher this year, and Weaver is a career 3-0 against Tampa. I honestly can't tell you why this total is set at 8, and not lower. That intrigues me. I wouldn't make a play on the side, since it feels like this one could be decided by a run. But, again, what's the deal with that total. Looks awfully high for a match-up of two of the top 5 or 6 pitchers in the AL.

Athletics @ Rangers (-120) with a total of 9; G. Gonzalez vs. D. Holland;
Kevin Kouzmanoff is a perfect 3-for-3 off Holland.
Gio Gonzalez shut down the Rangers in his brief work against them, and he's really starting to come into his own as a decent starting pitcher. Derek Holland, in his first start of 2010, is somehow a -120 favorite, despite going 8-13 last year with a 6.12 ERA. Holland is very young, throws hard, but has a long way to go to be fully ready to handle the Bigs. I liked Oakland yesterday, but didn't play them. I might just venture out there today. If nothing else, a lean to the A's, who continue to quietly play better than people realize.

Indians (-120) @ Royals with a total of 8.5; F. Carmona vs. K. Davies;
Russell Branyan is 3-for-7 with 3 RBI off Davies;
Asdrubal Cabrera is 3-for-9 with 3 RBI off Davies;
Jhonny Peralta is 4-for-9 with 2 RBI off Davies;
Mike Aviles is 3-for-10 off Carmona;
Alberto Callaspo is 3-for-7 off Carmona;
Jose Guillen is 4-for-9 with a HR and 4 RBI off Carmona;
David DeJesus is 8-for-25 with a HR off Carmona.
Despite a few strong numbers against Carmona, I have more faith in the Indian starter here than I do Davies. Kyle is 3-3, 6.18 against Cleveland, and even though the current Cleveland roster hasn't pummeled him, there are just teams that give a guy trouble. This line is fair, and might actually be a deal if Carmona can get back to his early-season form.

No comments:

Your Ad Here

The information contained on this page is for entertainment purposes only; any use of this information in violation of any federal, state, or local laws is prohibited. The owner of this website assumes no responsibility for the actions by and makes no representation or endorsement of any of these games and/or activities offered by the advertiser.