Sunday, June 27, 2010

From Inter to Intra

Recap: I believe in golf I'd ask for a mulligan. The Seattle Mariners never woke up and got completely shut down by Chris Narveson. You really need to stink for that to happen, and we bet on 'em. The small Free Play lost, as well. I'd like to say there are a ton of lessons to be learned, but I think it best to just forget that one and move on. Just the second bad day in a long line of decent, good, and great ones, so it's not worth it to pull hair out trying to figure out where things went awry if it was just an anomaly.

Sports Wagering: MLB

National League

Mets (-120) @ Marlins with a total of 9; R. Dickey vs. R. Nolasco;
Jose Reyes was batting .406 in 32 AB off Nolasco since '05 with 3 HR and 5 RBI;
David Wright was batting .361 with 3 HR and 8 RBI off Nolasco since '05.
I've been staring at this one for 15 minutes just coming up with a paragraph for the blog, and it's a bit of a head-scratcher. R.A. Dickey has been brilliant for the Mets this year, a perfect 6-0 with a 2.33 ERA. And, TBS, if you're reading this, when R.A. pitches in the playoffs, feel free to refer to his main pitch as a "Turbo-Knuckler", because we all know how much the world loved that idiot Chip Caray trying to sound smart during the Fausto Carmona game a few years back. In any case, he has beaten the Marlins already this year, and Nolasco, on the other side, has been predictably marginal against the Mets.
Leans: Mets-2.5

Phillies @ Reds (-140) with a total of 9.5; K. Kendrick vs. J. Cueto;
Shane Victorino is 2-for-4 with a HR off Cueto;
Brandon Phillips is 4-for-8 off Kendrick.
This is a strikingly steep line for the Reds going against such a public team as Philadelphia. The Phils are, perhaps, the most public team in the National League, thanks to their work over the last few years, and to see Cueto laying this number really raises an eyebrow. Especially intriguing is that Kendrick is 3-0 with a 6.61 ERA lifetime against Cincinnati, and Cueto is 0-2 with a 15.26 ERA lifetime against Philadelphia. I know Kendrick isn't the type of guy that breeds confidence, but he's been surprisingly decent on the road over the last 6 weeks, or so.
Leans: Phillies-3

Nationals @ Braves (-130) with a total of 7; S. Strasburg vs. T. Hudson;
Adam Dunn is 6-for-16 with a HR and 3 RBI off Hudson.
Strasburg finally checks in as an underdog, going head-to-head with one of the better teams in the NL after breaking into the Bigs with 4 starts against weaker competition. The strikeouts just keep racking up for the young stud, but this is going to be a test. He's not going to go deeper than 6-7 innings, almost no matter how this one plays out, which means that the bullpen is going to need to carry its weight, and the Nationals pen has been a little jumpy of late. On the other side, Hudson just keeps rolling along, somehow only with 7 wins despite throwing well just about every time he takes the hill. He gave up 2 runs in 7 innings of a loss to the Nats earlier this year, but this line suggests the Braves get the upper hand.
Leans: Braves-4

Pirates @ Cubs (-215) with a total of N/A; P. Maholm vs. R. Wells;
No need for player numbers here, since this is the 3rd time each of these guys is facing the other team. Randy Wells got creamed the first time he saw Pittsburgh, pitched much better the 2nd time, but the Cubs lost both. Maholm gave up 2 runs in 6 innings in both of his efforts against the Cubbies, and the Pirates won both of those games, too. Will the Cubs struggles against Pittsburgh continue?
Leans: Pirates-1

Astros @ Brewers (-200) with a total of 9.5; B. Norris vs. M. Parra;
Lance Berkman is 5-for-14 off Parra with an RBI;
Pedro Feliz is 3-for-7 with a HR and 2 RBI off Parra;
Carlos Lee is 8-for-15 with a HR and 3 RBI off Parra.
If we were dramatically hunting for another team that Norris has pitched well against besides the Cardinals, I suppose the Brewers could fall into the mix. He's 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA against Milwaukee, though the Brewers, to their credit, are starting to play a bit better. Manny Parra is 4-3 lifetime with a 4.91 ERA against the Astros, so not too impressive, but he's been decent enough as a starter. I don't like this one.
Leans: None

D'backs @ Cardinals (-185) with a total of 7.5; D. Haren vs. C. Carpenter;
Kelly Johnson was 4-for-7 with a HR off Carpenter before 2010;
Matt Holliday was 5-for-11 with 2 HR and 3 RBI off Haren before 2010.
This line is fairly lopsided, though Carpenter, obviously, is a big-time money-winner even with his inflated lines this year. Haren just can't quite put it all together consistently, and I couldn't tell you exactly the problem. He did, however, go 8 innings of 2-run baseball against these Cards back in Arizona in a victory. Carpenter allowed 3 runs in 6 innings of another Cardinals loss to the D'backs, so you have to wonder if he'll come out with a different level of focus in this one. I'd love to back Arizona at the nice dog price, but I fear Carpenter might be looking to avenge that earlier loss.
Leans: None

Rockies (-160) @ Padres with a total of 6; U. Jimenez vs. K. Correia;
REMATCH ALERT! I don't know if Kevin Correia has been the luckiest pitcher in the League, but he has to be among them, in terms of not just the level of run support, but when he gets it. The Padres have a knack for scoring 5 runs when he gives up 4, 7 runs when he gives up 6, and 2-3 runs when Correia pitches well. It's uncanny that, on a team with very little offense, Correia has a 5.14 ERA and 5 wins to show for it. He allowed 3 runs in 6 innings to these Rockies earlier this season, while Ubaldo was busy fanning 11 Padres and giving up just a single run in 7 innings. That total of 6 is horrifically low, and the side is too expensive.
Leans: Over-2

Dodgers @ Giants (-130) with a total of 7.5; C. Billingsley vs. B. Zito;
Ronnie Belliard was 9-for-21 with a HR and 6 RBI off Zito before 2010;
Jamey Carroll was 8-for-21 off Zito since '05;
Rafael Furcal was 8-for-22 with a HR and 2 RBI off Zito before 2010;
Matt Kemp was hitting .469 off Zito in 32 AB;
Travis Ishikawa was 5-for-11 off Billingsley with 3 RBI;
Aaron Rowand was 7-for-20 with a HR and 4 RBI off Billingsley;
Juan Uribe was 5-for-10 off Billingsley with a HR.
A ton of player numbers, here, and we'll see what lineups the two teams field. I'd imagine there would be a bit of a letdown for the Dodgers off the series with the Yanks, though this is a very important series for LA, as well, trying to gain ground on their two NL West rivals. Zito pitched well against LA earlier this year, but lost a tough one, though he has generally fared better in LA against the Dodgers than here, at home. Billingsley is coming off a short stint on the DL, and I imagine he's truly healthy, since the Dodgers can't really afford to put him out there at less than full strength. LA generally plays well at AT&T Park, too.
Leans: Dodgers-2

Blue Jays (-160) @ Indians with a total of 8.5; R. Romero vs. J. Westbrook;
Aaron Hill was a perfect 3-for-3 off Westbrook prior to 2010.
REMATCH ALERT! These guys faced off in a poorly pitched game back in early May that the Jays won, 8-5. Romero gave up all 5 of those runs in 6 innings of work, and Westbrook allowed 4 runs (3 earned) in 3.2 innings, and got yanked before things got completely out of hand. Romero has a 7.15 ERA against the Indians, so this isn't a team he particularly enjoys facing, and Westbrook, the veteran, seems to consistently give up 3-4 runs every time out. Does it go over the total again by a handful? Doubt it, this one should be a little less ugly, and given Romero's problems against Cleveland, you have to at least consider the home dog.
Leans: Indians-2

White Sox (-135) @ Royals with a total of 9.5; M. Buerhle vs. A. Lerew;
Mike Aviles is 5-for-16 with an RBI off Buerhle before 2010;
Willie Bloomquist is 8-for-22 off Buerhle before 2010;
Billy Butler is 11-for-33 with 2 HR and 7 RBI off Buerhle before this year;
Jason Kendall was 7-for-18 off Buerhle since '05;
Mitch Maier was 7-for-16 off Buerhle before 2010.
That's just too many strong number against the southpaw to ignore. I know Buerhle is on a decent run, posting 3 strong starts in a row, but the White Sox loss yesterday to snap an 11-game win streak definitely shifts the momentum. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the Sox take the metaphorical "deep breath" off the long win streak, and the Royals, who smoked young Jaime Garcia yesterday, might be looking to beat someone senseless.
Leans: Royals-3

Tigers @ Twins (-160) with a total of 8; J. Bonderman vs. F. Liriano;
Magglio Ordonez is 8-for-21 with 2 HR and 8 RBI off Liriano since '05;
Joe Mauer is 8-for-23 with a HR and 2 RBI off Bonderman;
Jim Thome is 6-for-18 with 3 HR and 6 RBI off Bonderman since '05;
Delmon Young is 4-for-9 with 2 RBI off Bonderman.
If I'm the Tigers, I'm a little nervous. Going to Minnesota has always been a bit of a house of horrors for Detroit, and now Liriano takes aim at them, trying to follow up on his 8 shutout innings (with 10 strikeouts) from back in April. Liriano has been a little more average over the last 2 months after a very strong start to the year, and while Bonderman has been pretty consistent in strike-throwing and getting a solid 6 innings into most games, this is a bad matchup for a guy that doesn't strike out many, and has a rather poor 3-6, 5.32 lifetime mark against the Twins.
Leans: Twins-1

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