Saturday, June 26, 2010

Interleague Madness Ends

Recap: Not a spectacular day, not a bad one. We lost our Small Afternoon Freebie on the Brewers, but came back with a smooth Paid Winner on the White Sox, who won their 11th in a row, yet somehow remain undervalued. Both games were decided by a run, so I suppose things went as they should. Paid Plays move to 25-12 the last 37. Needless to say, it's been a very nice month, and I hope many of you have been along for it!

Today: To celebrate the end of Interleague baseball, we're going with a double-helping on the wager size. It's not a Game of the Week, but it is a TRUE 2* play! Let's end what has been a stellar Interleague 2010 with a beefy 2-star winner! A lot of good games to choose from, but many of them early in the day, so let's get business done nice and early!

Sports Wagering: MLB

National League

Padres @ Marlins (-110) with a total of 7.5; M. Latos vs. A. Sanchez;
Just based on what we know of the Padres, I think the first move is to try to find a way to back them. However, when we examine some of the player matchup numbers, that plan gets derailed. I know Latos has one of the best WHIPs in baseball, for a starter, but his career numbers against Florida, 0-2 and 16.50 ERA, are the worst of any team he's faced. He allowed 7 runs in 2.2 innings earlier this year, on 7 hits, and based on that ERA, you can tell his previous work wasn't all that much better. Sanchez is 0-1 against the Pads, but his 2.84 ERA against them is a little more confidence-inspiring. I can't back Latos against the Marlins.
Leans: Marlins-2

Interleague Play

Indians @ Reds (-185) with a total of 9.5; M. Talbot vs. B. Arroyo;
Travis Hafner is 6-for-10 with a HR and 2 RBI off Arroyo since '05;
Austin Kearns is 3-for-7 with 2 HR and 5 RBI off Arroyo since '05.
I don't think there's a good reason to look at the side in this one. You guys know how I feel about home run lines, and lately, Mitch Talbot, has been able to go 5 or 6 good innings, then mix one horrible one in there, as well. The Reds will score some runs, and Arroyo does actually have a decent history against the Indians. Not worth it.
Leans: None

Twins @ Mets (-110) with a total of 8.5; S. Baker vs. J. Niese;
The players haven't seen much of the opposing pitcher, which actually has worked out pretty well for us, since we've been able to rely on how that pitcher has been trending. Scott Baker, to our delight, has been struggling a bit in June, aside from one completely dominant start against the Rockies. His other 3 outings this month have featured 14 runs in a hair over 18 innings. Jon Niese, for the Mets, is healthy, and finally starting to fill some of his potential. That being said, he got creamed by the Tigers in his last start, and got lucky that his Mets supported him with even more runs. Can he bounce back? History would say that he might have another bad one, first, but it's also possible that that game with Detroit was an aberration, since Verlander got hit hard, too, and he's a stud.
Leans: Mets-3

Tigers @ Braves (-130) with a total of 8; J. Verlander vs. T. Hanson;
Surprisingly, both of these top-tier starters got blasted the last time they pitched. Verlander gave up 5 runs in 2 innings in New York, and Hanson allowed 9 to the surging Chicago White Sox. So, who bounces back? Well, Detroit continues to struggle on the road, and are looking to try to avoid getting swept here, as they managed to do in New York, against the Mets. Verlander can certainly make things happen, and he'll almost always go deep in the game, but I'm not sure that the Tigers offense is just overmatched away from home. This one is too close to call, though believe me, I'd love to find an angle.
Leans: None

Phillies (-131) @ Blue Jays with a total of 9.5; J. Moyer vs. B. Cecil;
Alex Gonzalez is 4-for-9 with a HR and 4 RBI off Moyer;
Aaron Hill is batting .435 with 3 HR and 5 RBI off Moyer;
John McDonald is 4-for-9 with a HR and 3 RBI off Moyer;
Jose Molina is 4-for-9 off Moyer since '05;
Lyle Overbay is 6-for-17 with a HR and 6 RBI off Moyer since '05;
Vernon Wells is 6-for-19 with 2 RBI off Moyer since '05.
Moyer is coming off 2 incredible starts, made even moreso by the fact that he got his first issue of AARP last week. Brett Cecil is on the other side of that slope, giving up handfuls of runs in each of his last two starts. That being said, Moyer has a career ERA of almost 6 against the Jays, and I would have loved for this series to actually get played in Toronto. In Philadelphia, Moyer has a little edge with the home crowd, but those career numbers and player numbers are pushing me the other way.
Leans: Blue Jays-3

Nationals @ Orioles (-120) with a total of 9.5; L. Atilano vs. J. Guthrie;
Do my eyes deceive me? The Orioles as the favorite? Jeremy Guthrie, having a better season this year than last, is 1-1 with a 1.91 ERA lifetime against the Nats. On the other hand, Guthrie has lost all 4 starts he's made in June, giving up 16 runs in roughly 26 innings...not an awful ERA, but not good, either. Atilano, for the Nats, has been pretty up-and-down. He broke into the Bigs with 2 or 3 decent starts in his first 4, then struggled for 4 or 5 starts, and in June he's pitched well in 2 of 4 outings. Which Atilano are we going to get? That's the one question that truly needs to be answered to make a play on this game. I honestly can't believe the O's are a favorite, but in a tip of the cap to the books, I think you have to at least peer in their direction.
Leans: Orioles-2

D'backs @ Rays (-200) with a total of 9.5; R. Lopez vs. W. Davis;
Hank Blalock is 3-for-8 off Rodrigo Lopez.
Minimal player data, so we can almost disregard it, though Carl Crawford has been decidedly average in his career against Lopez. The D'backs won the opener behind a no-hitter from Edwin Jackson, then came back yesterday and lost 5-3 in another game that turned out more competitive than I think most figured. So, what of today? This is a monster line for Wade Davis, who hasn't exactly been a model of consistency, this year. Lopez has been pretty consistent for Arizona, but will it be good enough?
Leans: D'backs-1

Cubs @ White Sox (-135) with a total of 8; R. Dempster vs. J. Danks;
Juan Pierre was 4-for-11 off Dempster before 2010;
A.J. Pierzynski was 6-for-17 with a HR and 6 RBI off Dempster before 2010;
Carlos Quentin was 4-for-9 off Dempster with 2 RBI;
Alexei Ramirez was 4-for-11 with a HR and 2 RBI off Dempster.
On paper, the White Sox have a pretty marked edge in this one. The Cubs are in disarray, Dempster is 1-4 with a 5.09 ERA lifetime against the Southside club, and John Danks is a perfect 2-0 with an 0.90 ERA against the Cubs. Danks is back on his game in June, and the Sox are doing more than enough to win, I don't know how you can go against all that.
Leans: White Sox-4

Mariners @ Brewers (-120) with a total of 9; J. Vargas vs. C. Narveson;
How the heck is Chris Narveson 6-4? That is just inexplicable, and that's why record rarely tells the entire story. His ERA of 5.76 is a little more revealing, and it just seems like whenever Narveson can go 5 innings and give up 2 runs, the Brewers give him 6 runs of support. When Narveson gives up 5 runs in 4 innings, well, that's why his ERA is where it is. Jason Vargas is, perhaps, the most underrated pitcher in the AL right now. That's not to say that he's the best pitcher out there, but he's 6-2 with a 2.66 ERA and still no one is talking about him. He's also having a strong month of June, and the Mariners got a nice road win last night that could certainly put the Brewers on a short losing skid.
Leans: Mariners-3

Cardinals (-165) @ Royals with a total of 8.5; J. Garcia vs. B. Chen;
Bruce Chen is still pitching well. I just wanted to lead with that, since it's the last nice thing I'll say about him. He's 0-3 with a 5.71 lifetime ERA against the Cardinals, and Jaime Garcia continues to rumble right along in what is well beyond a "breakout" rookie season. Just an amazing first 3 months, and I'll give credit where credit's due. I thought he'd regress, and he still should, but he's been rocking long enough where I don't think it's worth trying to predict when that happens.
Leans: Under-2

Rockies @ Angels (-140) with a total of 8.5; J. Chacin vs. E. Santana;
Some of the Rockies have seen more of Ervin Santana than I expected, though he's still without a decision against the actual Colorado team. We can thank the Rox for adding guys like Giambi and Mora to add to the historical data. As far as this match-up goes, Chacin is starting to hit a stride again just a bit, coming off 2 decent starts. Santana is coming off a start that looked horrid early, against the Dodgers, before he really rounded into shape and gave the Halos 7 strong innings. He's still walking too many guys, and I worry that the Angels can get that key hit.
Leans: None

Red Sox @ Giants (-130) with a total of 7; J. Lester vs. T. Lincecum;
This game, to me, looks like a proving ground type of game for Lincecum, who has cut a swath through the weaker National League. Now, facing the Red Sox and their hot bats, The Freak is definitely going to be amped. Lester is a tough customer, though, and I can't help but think this one could be a game dominated by pitching. I'm surprised, actually, that we didn't see a total of 6.5 in such a large, pitcher-friendly park. Both of these guys are throwing well, the only real difference is that Lincecum seems to be going deeper into games, and June has been much more vintage Lincecum. I think oddsmakers are correct with this line.
Leans: Giants-3

Pirates @ Athletics (-235) with a total of 9; R. Ohlendorf vs. G. Gonzalez;
I'm not sure I even care about this game. In fact, digging and digging for something to write, all I've got is that the Pirates are downright ridiculously bad on the road (and almost as bad at home), and the A's are good enough to beat 'em. Is this line reasonable? Probably not, but I'm not going to be that guy that says "be selective", then tells someone to take a longshot on this type of game. I'm intrigued by the total, just a little. Gonzalez is darn near unhittable at home, so if you think the A's get held to 5 or fewer runs, I think this one's got a nice shot to stay Under.
Leans: Under-3

Astros @ Rangers (-165) with a total of 9; R. Oswalt vs. T. Hunter;
Ian Kinsler was 6-for-13 with a HR and 2 RBI off Oswalt before 2010;
Michael Young is 9-for-24 with 6 RBI off Oswalt since '05.
Oswalt is certainly good enough to keep this one close, so I wonder if this game isn't a spot where the road team has a little value. Tommy Hunter's been pitching too well, though, to really make this a top lean. I guess the thought process is that every time out Oswalt can either raise or lower his value in a potential trade, so he's likely to give a decent effort.
Leans: Astros-1

Yankees @ Dodgers (-110) with a total of 7.5; A. Pettitte vs. C. Kershaw;
Garrett Anderson is 9-for-16 off Pettitte since '05;
Manny Ramirez is 7-for-18 with a HR and 2 RBI off Pettitte since '05.
Pettitte has done a number on just about every Dodger that didn't get listed above. Furcal is 1-for-10, Reed Johnson is 1-for-8, Jamey Carroll 2-for-15, and the list goes on. The Yanks haven't seen the youngster, Kershaw, and we know the kind of damage he can do, at home, but those walks scare the heck out of me. Few teams are more patient than the Yanks, and if Kershaw isn't hitting the zone, he's either going to get punished or check out of this one after 4-5 innings. Either way, that's not good. Pettitte is having an unreal season, and his June has been just about as good. He's gone 7 innings or more in every start this month, and has given up 2 earned runs in all 4 starts before this one.
Leans: Yankees-3

No comments:

Your Ad Here

The information contained on this page is for entertainment purposes only; any use of this information in violation of any federal, state, or local laws is prohibited. The owner of this website assumes no responsibility for the actions by and makes no representation or endorsement of any of these games and/or activities offered by the advertiser.