Monday, June 21, 2010

Interleague Madness Returns, Day 12

Someone poured a kettle of water on our Summer Sizzlin' play! Not cool.

Back to a normal size card today, so we'll make back yesterday's one loss AND THEN SOME with some tremendous action coming up on this fine Tuesday.

Still a vicious 22-10 Paid Run, despite 2 losses, and still a 10-3 run since last Sunday. No reason to think that won't pick right back up with tomorrow's standard 15-game card, plenty of which have nice, short lines that we can pick apart!

Sports Wagering: MLB

National League

Giants (-160) @ Astros with a total of 6.5; T. Lincecum vs. R. Oswalt;
Freddy Sanchez is 11-for-33 off Oswalt.
REMATCH ALERT! Not sure if this is one to play the opposite side or leave it alone, but I certainly have my inklings, and they're not in that direction. Lincecum went 7 shutout against the 'Stros earlier this year, and he's a perfect 4-0 against Houston with a 1.33 ERA lifetime. Oswalt has actually struggled a tad with the Giants, going 5-7 in his career, though the 3.67 ERA isn't all that bad. I certainly wouldn't pay for Timmy against a bad team like the Astros, but I'm not sure I'd have the nuts to play Oswalt, either.
Leans: None

Interleague Play

Indians @ Phillies (-185) with a total of 10; M. Talbot vs. J. Moyer;
Anderson Hernandez is 5-for-13 with 2 RBI off Moyer;
Austin Kearns is 7-for-16 off Moyer with 2 RBI since '05;
Jhonny Peralta is 4-for-his-last-8 off Moyer.
Moyer is almost uncappable these days, using just numbers alone. The line movement has been pretty solid with Jamie this year, and his 7-1, 3.01 lifetime mark against the Indians makes it seem, on paper, like this should be a Phils win. Talbot has been slipping a bit, giving up a ton of hits, generally in 1 or 2 bad innings, but that's not going to cut it against a Phils team that's catching fire again.
Leans: None

Marlins (-140) @ Orioles with a total of 8.5; A. Sanchez vs. J. Guthrie;
I'm not sure the Marlins are really good enough to be this large of a road favorite when anyone besides Josh Johnson is on the mound. I'd love to back the Orioles here, but again, there's some intestinal fortitude that goes into such a decision. They're absolutely the value side, and the Marlins rely awfully heavily on those bats to get it done, so if Guthrie can somehow put together 6 or 7 innings of 2-run ball, the O's have a decent shot. This one probably isn't strong enough to put money on, though, unless you're a volume bettor.
Leans: Orioles-2

Royals @ Nationals (-115) with a total of 9; A. Lerew vs. L. Atilano;
Interestingly, coming off last night's low-scoring affair, it was almost like a battle to see which team could screw things up LESS, and Washington won that affair. Now, back they come with Luis Atilano, who has been pretty bad after a decent start to his rookie campaign. Lerew, on the other side went 6 innings and allowed 2 runs to the Astros in his only work this year, so you have to think that he has the slight edge based just on the fact that Washington doesn't know a ton about him. Tough to back KC right now, though, since they're struggling mightily on this road trip.
Leans: Royals-3

Cardinals (-117) @ Blue Jays with a total of 7.5; J. Garcia vs. B. Cecil;
I will admit, I'm a little concerned about both starting pitchers, moreso about Cecil. The Jays starter got knocked around a bit in his last start down in San Diego, which snapped a long stretch of hot pitching. The question, I suppose is whether he's hitting a little rut, or if it was a one-time aberration. He still only allowed 7 hits, but the Padres managed to cash in. Garcia, on the other side, is still sporting that 1.59 ERA, though he's been giving up 1-3 runs in just about every start after a few zeros early in the season. When will the wheels fall off, completely? Maybe this one, maybe not for a bit, yet, but the Cardinals weak recent road play makes this one a tad more dicey than if they were hitting away from home.
Leans: Cardinals-2

Tigers (-130) @ Mets with a total of 7.5; J. Verlander vs. J. Niese;
This is somewhat pricey for Verlander, considering the level of competition, but my guess is that Niese just isn't drawing much in the way of respect, but to his credit, Niese has pitched extremely well since coming off the DL, and the Mets have won all 3 of his starts. The Tigers have won Verlander's last 3 starts, too, and 10 of his 14 trips to the hill have resulted in Tigers' victories, but this team is a total clunker on the road, and I would almost never back the Tigers away from home, especially at a favorite price. Verlander does have a tendency to give up 1-3 runs, so he's not untouchable, but that ERA stays in the 3's because he generally goes 7-8 innings. He's a horse, and he's good. Tough to go against the big righthander, but that's the only way to go in this one.
Leans: Mets-4

Padres @ Rays (-126) with a total of 8.5; M. Latos vs. W. Davis;
This seems like a pretty cheap price, even for Wade Davis, especially against a team like the Padres that struggles to get a ton of public betting action. I know Latos has been solid, posting a WHIP under 1 this far into a season, but the Rays can certainly score some runs, and Latos might be lucky to go 6 innings. I suppose only time will tell, but this opening line, to me, is pretty strongly in favor of the Padres, who remain a solid road team. Tampa, quietly, is struggling a bit, too. This one could end up as a battle of the bullpens, both quite good.
Leans: Padres-3

Pirates @ Rangers (-250) with a total of 10; R. Ohlendorf vs. T. Hunter;
Well, you know we aren't going anywhere near the side in this one. The Pirates can't win a game on the road to save their lives (though I suppose their lives haven't yet been threatened), and they send 0-5 Ross Ohlendorf to try to get a win. Tommy Hunter, a rather large kid, is 2-0 for Texas so far, and the Rangers are really rumbling along right now, winners of 8 in a row. The total is the only thing I'd even look at, since you guys know how I feel about home run lines, and the high number here is either a gift for under-bettors, or is laying the groundwork for the Rangers to score 11 by themselves.
Leans: None

Braves (-120) @ White Sox with a total of 8; T. Hanson vs. J. Danks;
Both of these pitchers are really rolling, right now. The White Sox are starting to score enough to win, and after a bit of a slump, Danks is back on his game, giving up just 2 runs in his last 15 innings, over 2 starts. The Braves have won Hanson's last 6 starts, though he hasn't been going all that deep in games. He's not giving up much, either, but I suppose if it came right down to it, and it might, I'd have to give the nod to the White Sox bullpen. Danks seems to have greater longevity in the game, when his stuff is on point, so if we're seeing 3 innings of Braves relievers, and only 1-2 of Sox, well, there's your tiny lean.
Leans: White Sox-2

Twins (-130) @ Brewers with a total of 9.5; S. Baker vs. C. Narveson;
Prince Fielder is 7-for-17 with 2 HR and 3 RBI.
Scott Baker is coming off a thoroughly dominant performance, at home, over the Colorado Rockies, recording a crazy 12 strikeouts, 3 more than he's had in any other start this year. Now, just a -130 favorite in Milwaukee against a rather bad home team and a rather bad starting pitcher, well, this one is the ultimate head-scratcher of opening lines. Milwaukee is coming off a win over the Rockies to salvage 1 of 3 in that series, and the Brewers head back home, where they're 8 games under 500 on the season. I just can't figure this line out. It's in that "either this is a monster play gift line, or the Brewers are going to clobber Baker, and oddsmakers saw Baker throw a terrible bullpen between starts" weird window.
Leans: Line Movement Dictation

Red Sox (-145) @ Rockies with a total of 8.5; J. Lester vs. J. Chacin;
This line is a little less screwball, considering the Rockies are actually quite strong at home, and neither starter has looked all THAT great over their last couple starts. We know what Lester can do, though, so I'm pretty hesitant to go against him. Coors Field can really get into a pitchers' head, though, and I have to wonder if Lester battles any mental blocks heading into this start. We know what Chacin can do, and what he does is get teams out the first time he faces them, and now the scouting report is getting out. Boston is red hot, but that Coors Field red flag makes me want to wait and see...
Leans: Red Sox-1

Yankees (-143) @ Diamondbacks with a total of 9.5; A. Pettitte vs. D. Haren;
Robinson Cano is 6-for-19 off Haren since '05;
Derek Jeter is 6-for-19 off Haren since '05, as well;
Chris Snyder is 4-for-10 off Pettitte;
Stephen Drew is 3-for-6 off Pettitte.
Dan Haren, believe it or not, is 4-0 against the Yankees in his career, but he's been so up and down this season, that he's a pretty tough cat to back. The Yankees are "struggling" just a little bit, though admittedly, they're still winning games, just not 3 or 4 in a row. Haha, hey, standards are standards, I guess. Pettitte still has that ERA in the mid 2's, though he's just 2-5 lifetime against the D'backs. This one appears to have some value on the home dog, but Haren could easily surrender 6 runs in 6 innings, or 2 in 8 innings.
Leans: D'backs-1

Reds @ Athletics (-120) with a total of 7.5; B. Arroyo vs. D. Braden;
Scott Rolen is 3-for-7 off Braden;
Gabe Gross is batting .346 in 26 AB with 2 HR and 2 RBI off Arroyo;
Conor Jackson is 4-for-10 off Arroyo;
Kevin Kouzmanoff is 11-for-16 with 2 HR and 7 RBI off Arroyo.
This game intrigues me, though we'll know a bit more after the previous game wraps up. Arroyo is coming off a solid outing against the Dodgers, though the number of double play balls the Dodgers hit into was astounding, and without those, Arroyo's numbers might not have been as impressive. He walked 6 and got away with it. Braden finally had a decent start his last time out, but lost when he got no run support. Interestingly, though, it was basically his first truly good start since the perfect game, and I can't help but wonder if he's turning the corner.
Leans: Athletics-3

Dodgers (-115) @ Angels with a total of 8; C. Kershaw vs. E. Santana;
Casey Blake is 6-for-14 with 2 HR and 4 RBI off Santana since '05;
Russ Martin is 4-for-11 off Santana with 2 RBI.
I know the Angels swept the Dodgers last weekend, and Boston swept the Dodgers this most recent weekend, but I can't help but think the Dodgers have the slight leg up in this one. Both teams are rested, each getting an off-day on Monday, so the bullpens are ready, and both are coming back from pretty far East, the Dodgers just a tad farther, so that, to me, is a bit of a wash. Kershaw is 1-0 with an 0.75 ERA against the Angels, so he's pitched well against them, and Santana, while 2-3 against the Dodgers, is coming off 2 rough starts in a row, and I wonder if he's hitting a little skid.
Leans: Dodgers-3

Cubs (-113) @ Mariners with a total of 6.5; R. Dempster vs. J. Vargas;
Xavier Nady is 3-for-9 off Vargas with 1 RBI.
These two starters both achieve decent success, but almost do it completely differently. Dempster throws a ton of pitches, walks guys, strikes out guys, and goes 6 strong. Vargas doesn't walk anyone, doesn't strike out anyone, gives up a ton of hits, but goes a little deeper. The Mariners are on one of the most tenuous win streaks of any team this year. They've taken 4 in a row, but they've scored a grand total of 9 runs in those 4 games. Rarely do you see a team post a win streak while averaging 2.25 runs, but these punchless M's are getting it done on the hill. The Cubs are coming off a monster offensive burst on Sunday, but does it continue?
Leans: Mariners-2

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