Sunday, July 18, 2010

Welcome to Regular Thread-Town

Recap: 4 games over the weekend, 3 1-run losses, 2 losses with 9th inning leads. I thought Saturday's play cut deep, but I didn't know pain until Sunday. That weekend definitely put a damper on what had been a spectacular 2-month run. But, if Forrest Gump taught us anything, it's that "Shit Happens."

Today: Summer Sizzler Game of the Month!? Talk about the most idiotic sales move in history. But, I put the plays out when the numbers line up, and thus, you can get my Game of the Month for just $6 (with the coupon in Marco's Daily Video), instead of the usual $25. There is a spectacular play on the board, and I'm so confident I almost did the unthinkable and locked it in the night before, but that would have just been hasty.

Equation of the Day: We'll give Math/Science a day off, and instead focus on the fact that the roundup is back in a regular thread, with automated emails!

Sports Wagering: MLB

National League

Brewers (-115) @ Pirates with a total of 9.5; C. Capuano vs. J. Karstens;
Karstens has to feel like the Brewers are the only team he's seen all month. He just faced them before the Break, and he faced them back in April, too, for what it's worth. He's 0-2 with a 4.01 ERA lifetime against Milwaukee, 0-1 this year, though his start against them in April was definitely good enough to get a win. Capuano is 2-6 with a 6.34 ERA lifetime against Pittsburgh, and doesn't have the arm strength to be considered a "full" starter, just yet. Pittsburgh hit the ball very well against the Astros, too, so I wonder if this isn't a bit of a bad spot for Capuano, or if Karstens continues his downward trend against the Brewers.

Phillies @ Cardinals (-135) with a total of 9; K. Kendrick vs. B. Hawksworth;
This might come as a bit of a surprise, but Kyle Kendrick loves facing the Cards. He's a perfect 4-0 with a 1.67 ERA against St. Louis lifetime, including 7 shutout innings of work this season. Blake Hawksworth is 0-1 with a 7.71 ERA against the Phils in a brief bit of work. Skip Schumaker is the only Cardinal with any true success against Kendrick, and believe me, I'm as surprised as the next guy. The Phils are playing the late game on ESPN on Sunday night, so momentum is yet to be decided, but there's some value on the dog, here, I imagine.

Rockies (-155) @ Marlins with a total of 7; U. Jimenez vs. A. Sanchez;
The Rockies avoided a sweep in Cincinnati with a bit of a tightrope act, but they'll probably need more than 1 run to beat the Marlins. Well, maybe. Ubaldo Jimenez is 1-1 with a 1.80 ERA against the Marlins, hasn't faced them this year, and that probably bodes well for him. Sanchez is 1-0 with a 3.18 ERA against the Rockies, who continue to struggle to hit on the road. They're markedly worse against lefties, so that's one little point in Colorado's favor, but I'd be pretty careful with this one, since you never know how an All Star starter is going to bounce back in his first start after the Break.

Nationals @ Reds (-175) with a total of 9; J. Martin vs. J. Cueto;
It's official - the Reds are in a bit of an offensive slump. I mistakenly thought they were coming out of it, but such was not the case. Cueto is 2-2 with a 5.56 ERA against Washington in his career, but these teams are not too familiar with each other in 2010. Nyjer Morgan has some decent numbers against Cueto, but I'm a little confused as to how his ERA got as high as it is against this team. A healthy Cueto should be able to hold his own against a very poor road team. J.D. Martin, his competition, is probably among the best 1-4 pitchers in the MLB. His 3.35 ERA should be good enough for a couple of wins, but the Nats aren't giving him any run support. I would not be surprised to see this total come down to 8.5, since both teams got shut out, yesterday. If you like the Under, you might want to grab it early.

Astros @ Cubs (-170) with a total of N/A; W. Rodriguez vs. C. Silva;
The Cubs are one of the few teams that Wandy's pitched well against this season, and he's 4-4 with a 3.74 ERA against them, lifetime. Carlos Silva went 7 innings against the Astros way back near the beginning of the year, and he's 2-0 with a 3.12 ERA against them overall. Silva has been a shining beacon of consistency, and though I do believe the Astros will get some love at this price, Houston's pitching has been terrible since the Break, and the Cubs actually showed some signs of life in that series with the Phils, and could have dominated the series if not for some shaky relief work (which seemed to be the theme of the weekend around baseball). I'd be careful with this one.

Mets @ D'backs (-110) with a total of 9.5; M. Pelfrey vs. I. Kennedy;
This is a square-off of two guys that stumbled into the All Star Break. We thought Pelfrey was going to get the nod in that Giants series, but he got pushed back, and I can't say I'm surprised. His arm appeared to be completely gassed heading into the Break, and extra time to get his whole body healthy should only be a good thing. Pelfrey is, however, 0-4 with a 5.22 ERA lifetime against the D'backs, so this isn't a team that he enjoys facing, particularly, and Adam LaRoche, a new D'back, has always given him problems. Kennedy seemed to be pretty pooped heading into the Break, too, and the D'backs have come out of the layoff looking as sorry as they did beforehand. Kennedy was extremely consistent when his arm was right, so I wonder if he gets things together against a team that has struggled to score on this road trip and even before the Break.

Giants @ Dodgers (-110) with a total of 8.5; M. Bumgarner vs. J. McDonald;
This is a fun youngster game, and I almost feel like I'm watching some sort of Futures event. For the Giants, Bumgarner, master of the silly name, is their #2 prospect behind current catcher Buster Posey, so they're not at all surprised that he's gotten off to a strong MLB start. James McDonald is a Dodgers project that has spent some time in the Bigs, but never really got his role settled. He started once or twice, pitched in long relief, pitched in short relief, and I have to think that, finally, McDonald is a starter, and I only hope, as a Dodger fan, that he puts the pieces together with that nasty curve and solid change. The Dodgers come home off an awful series in St. Louis, and the Giants head south off a solid, nearly spectacular series against the Mets. Of course, it's not about what happened yesterday, it's about what's about to happen. Dodgers have owned the NL West, and Giants are far worse on the road. Definitely a good game to watch, and possibly bet.

American League

Rays (-171) @ Orioles with a total of 9.5; W. Davis vs. C. Tillman;
There's a reason Wade Davis is this big of a road favorite, and that's because the Orioles, despite a firework here and there, still stink, and Wade Davis is 2-0 with an 0.56 ERA against Baltimore lifetime. He hasn't faced them this year, somehow, but the historical data makes it look like he's going to be awfully tough. So, I know the first thought you had, and let's dispell it - Tillman is 0-1 against the Rays, but his 2.84 ERA means he wasn't at all a bad pitcher. He also had his best start of 2010 right before the Break, so he's got some confidence, and Tampa had some issues getting runners home yesterday. That type of stuff can carry over.

Rangers @ Tigers (-110) with a total of 9.5; S. Feldman vs. J. Bonderman;
Bonderman had himself a fairly ugly start in Texas this season, but Michael Young is really the one Ranger that has had his way with Bonderman over the years. Texas is playing good baseball right now, but I can't help but wonder if that emotional series in Fenway took a little out of them. The Tigers are a mess, losing all 4 games in Cleveland post-Break, and doing absolutely nothing offensively. Scott Feldman, though, is 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA against the Tigers in his ML career, including a poor effort against them in Texas in 2010. A lot of hideous numbers makes me think that 9.5 on the total is a fishy number. I have to think we'll see a fair amount of Over money, and Texas is looking pretty sweet off their beating of Boston, but I'm not sure those aren't both a little flawed.

Indians @ Twins (-205) with a total of 9; A. Laffey vs. S. Baker;
Do you even have to ask on this one? Not touching the side, as both of these teams are on hot streaks, and both are hitting the ball well. For the Indians, though, a change of venue can really put a wrinkle in things, and of course, playing a team other than the Tigers (who stink on the road) will also make life tougher. The Twins should win this game, but we know how "shoulds" work. Baker is 7-6 with a 3.50 ERA against Cleveland in his career, but was awful against them this year, and Hafner eats Baker for lunch. Laffey is not a good pitcher, flat out, but he is 4-2 against the Twins lifetime, despite Mauer, Span and Cuddyer all hitting him very hard. I can't help but think the Over is the only play I'd even remotely consider, and even that's a longshot.

Blue Jays (-150) @ Royals with a total of 9; B. Cecil vs. K. Davies;
Amazingly, Kyle Davies is actually the biggest money winner on the Royals pitching staff. Just some food for thought on a guy with a 5.57 ERA. Hah. In any case, Davies gave up 4 runs in 6 innings against the Jays back in April, and is 1-2 with a 5.03 ERA against them, lifetime. Cecil has never faced the Royals, but Kansas City has come out of the Break struggling, big time, as the Oakland Athletics just ran them right over. Can they put the brakes on Toronto's big power? Kauffman Stadium is quite spacious, which definitely hurts the Jays, and while I don't believe I can back Davies, the venue might actually keep me off Toronto, at least until we see how they handle their trip to KC.

Red Sox (-120) @ Athletics with a total of 8.5; D. Matsuzaka vs. B. Sheets;
REMATCH ALERT! I know, pretty weird, but it's true. These two went head-to-head back on June 2, and Matsuzaka gave up 3 runs in 6.2 innings in a 6-4 Boston win. Sheets allowed 4 runs in 6 innings, which was relatively decent, but not good enough. Boston is coming off getting shellacked by the Rangers, and the A's are coming off beating the hell out of the Royals, so I wonder if this isn't one of those spots where we're getting the world's best price on a banged up Red Sox team with the better starter, and better lineup even when they're at 60% strength. I don't believe the rematch plays a role in this game, at all. These teams don't really care about each other.

White Sox (-130) @ Mariners with a total of 8.5; D. Hudson vs. D. Pauley;
The suddenly cold White Sox get a chance to get fat in this series, if the Mariners will play a part in it. This series, to me, is a tough one, as the White Sox come in off a very depressing loss to the Twins, and the entire AL Central is bunched up once again. The Mariners got a tough extra-inning win in LA to finish off that series, though, motivation-wise, you have to think the White Sox want these games just a hair more. This series, to me, is a very tough one to cap, and we have two unknown starters on top of it.

24 comments:

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Such decisions are implemented based on procedure and environmental conditions register when completing a shielded driving maneuver.
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The Minneapolis Unequalled Tribune reported Rice visited the Steadman Clinic in Vail, Colorado on Monday where he had the feather, confirmed at hand Rice in a crow's-foot quickness to the paper.

Rice has been on the physically debilitated to sketch up non-functioning record since the fount of training vouchsafe disheartening pronto to the malaise, which he thitherto stated occurred during Minnesota's extermination to the New Orleans Saints in the NFC Championship Regatta matrix January.

The gunshot said Rice was looked at -away three specialists during the offseason, and that two had suggested surgery at the time.

The 23-year-old fourth-year pro had a breakout exhilarate up contagious passes from Brett Favre copy year and earned Pro Trundle honors pursuit of hauling in 83 balls in report up again 1,312 yards and eight touchdowns in 16 games.

Rice was the 44th blanket bevy in the 2007 outline at eminently of South Carolina after a standout sophomore piquancy as a replacement respecting the Gamecocks.

In reckoning to Rice's serape, the troupe is dealing with the vigorousness of cosmopolitan receiver Percy Harvin, who continues to employ energy iron-handed migraine headaches that airtight caused him to passion on most of camp.

The Vikings responded Tuesday sooner than signing trouper to air side receiver Javon Walker, who last wishes as puncturing his ninth NFL sip and be reunited with quarterback Brett Favre.

Walker started a full of promise hotfoot it in Unseasoned Bay after the Packers took him in the plain arched in 2002 exposed of Florida State. He played four seasons alongside Favre and vex together his finest year as a pro in 2004 when he racked up following bests with 1,382 yards 12 touchdowns and 89 receptions.

The 31-year-old went on to garrison oneself in two seasons in Denver in the vanguard motile on to the Raiders in 2008. He appeared in three games without recording a vanquishment soil lucky in redress also in behalf of Oakland in aid a season-ending ankle injury.

Minnesota also waived unceasing take under one's wing Ryan Moats Tuesday. Moats was signed in June after two years with the Texans. In 2009, the fifth-year pro ran apt 390 yards with four touchdowns on 101 carries. He also caught 13 passes in the administration of 106 yards and a legions in 14 games.

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