Wednesday, August 11, 2010

MLB Betting Preview for 8/12

Recap: Coming Soon!

Today: I already see a play I like enough to make it a Two-Star (2*) Best Bet, and, not surprisingly, that will be for sale over at the Pro Page for just 15 bucks! The afternoon NL games look awful, but I am intrigued by the early afternoon AL game to be a potential Free Play, and if it doesn't come from that one, well, you'll have plenty of time to get it, so don't stress. In the meantime, click anywhere in this paragraph to join me on the Top Play, an evening release. (does that expression, "evening release," make anyone else feel uncomfortable?)

Sports Wagering: MLB

National League

Rockies @ Mets (-165) with a total of 7; J. Hammel vs. J. Santana;
These afternoon games are always scary, and this line is even moreso. Johan hasn't seen a ton of the Rockies, but he's dominated them when he has had the chance, and Jason Hammel has a ridiculous lifetime ERA of 33.75 against the Mets. This one looks way too easy, which makes me think it should be avoided.

D'backs @ Brewers (-150) with a total of 9; R. Lopez vs. R. Wolf;
This is a potential tripping point for the suddenly "play like they care" Diamondbacks, mostly because Rodrigo Lopez has one huge weakness, and that plays into the Brewers strength - the home run ball. That being said, the Brewers are a little beat up these days, and are missing some of their power bats, so that definitely punches a hole in the case for backing Milwaukee, especially at this price. Wolf at -150 is a ton to pay for a guy that has been decent the last 3 starts, and has a nice 9-3 career record against the D'backs (from his time in the NL West), but again, this is a lot to pay for an afternoon game on a team that's floundering at home.

Cubs @ Giants (-185) with a total of 7; R. Wells vs. M. Cain;
You didn't hear it from me, but the home run line is probably the only play that I wouldn't lose my head about. Matt Cain is rolling, he's 5-2 with a 2.41 career ERA against the Cubs, and the only Cub with any success against him is the new acquisition, Blake DeWitt. Randy Wells is decent, but he's hittable, and the Giants aren't going to drop this afternoon tilt. I wouldn't bet it, since you all know how I truly feel about playing a home favorite run line. In all honesty, it's too expensive, and I feel like the Cubs got what success they're going to have in San Francisco earlier in this series.

Pirates @ Padres (-200) with a total of 7; Z. Duke vs. J. Garland;
This one is way out of our price range, and the Pirates just stink to high heavens on the road, so there's no good reason to take either side. No great reason to take the total, either, since Garland is a master of leaving men on base, but even one big mistake and the roof could come in. Hell, the Padres might score 7 themselves if Duke has one of his classic implosions.

Marlins @ Nationals (-115) with a total of 8; R. Nolasco vs. L. Hernandez;
I don't know how he's doing it, but Livan Hernandez just keeps rumbling along. This has the makings of a good game, too, with the second half prowess of Ricky Nolasco butting heads with Livan. Nolasco is coming off a poor effort, and I wonder if that starts a multiple-game slump, or if he bounces back. It wasn't one of those 1-inning starts where the starter wants to surge back - he went 5 innings, so the arm isn't as fresh as if he only threw 25 pitches, but it all comes down to the psyche of the pitcher, and Nolasco isn't really mister-cool. Livan is going to throw junk, and the impatient Marlins have been a nice victim this year. He's shut them down twice, but that third time is always a little tougher.

Dodgers (-135) @ Phillies with a total of 8; C. Kershaw vs. J. Blanton;
This is not Clayton's favorite club, though, as mentioned previously, with the injuries suffered by the Phils, some of the scariest lumber is taken out of the lineup. Kershaw is 0-3 with a 6.64 ERA against Philadelphia, but I highly doubt he pitches that poorly against the somewhat unmanned club. He's going to need to put in a nice effort, though, as Blanton is 1-0 with a 2.88 ERA against the Dodgers, doing his best high-wire act to keep bodies from touching home. Andre Ethier, Reed Johnson and James Loney have all hit him hard, and while I do seem to feel the home team is the better wager in this one (as a dog to a guy that's struggled against this opponent, in Kershaw), the Over is also in play, if both pitchers get a little bopped around.

American League

Red Sox @ Blue Jays (-110) with a total of 9; J. Lackey vs. B. Mills;
This one is another pretty darn early game, which makes me about 30 times less interested in the game. We might see some weird lineups, especially from the banged-up, and pretty old Red Sox, and an afternoon game in Canada is always a spectacle (sarcasm...). Still, both teams are playing like they care, and the Sox are still in the Playoff hunt in the AL East, somehow. Lackey is 4-4 with a 4.29 ERA against the Jays, lifetime, but has been absolutely clobbered by them twice this year. It's Blue Jays' youngster, or nothing, for this early tilt.

Orioles @ Indians (-150) with a total of 9; K. Millwood vs. J. Gomez;
The Indians have won all 3 of Gomez's starts in the Bigs to the tune of +4.3 units, and I don't think there's much reason to think otherwise, here. Millwood actually did make a nice start against the White Sox his last time out, but Baltimore, for all their surging, still cannot find a way to win a start when Millwood is on the hill. I really like the Orioles in just about every spot besides when Millwood is out there. He looks dejected on the mound, and if he doesn't continue to pitch like he cares under Showalter, there's zero question he's gone. Showalter is 100% responsible for Millwood pitching competitively in his last start, and he earned himself another go, tonight, but he's a big dog for a reason in this one.

Twins @ White Sox (-125) with a total of 7; F. Liriano vs. G. Floyd;
Gavin Floyd is a freaking machine, these days, and this seems like a pretty nice price on a good starter, at home, courtesy of the big name of his opposition. To Liriano's credit, he hasn't been that great against the Sox in his career (1-3, 5.82), but he's been the starter in two Twins wins over the White Sox. Floyd was the starter in a loss to the Twins, but he got burned by bad defense, and still only gave up 1 earned run in that contest. I expect his fine work will continue, and I'm also a little leery of getting behind Liriano (I thought that play on words was pretty clever) when he's pitching on the road. Those fly ball don't leave the giant dimensions of Target Field, but they might get out of US Cellular.

Yankees (-230) @ Royals with a total of 8.5; C. Sabathia vs. B. Chen;
Goodness. That's about a high enough road line to scare away any Yankees-backers...or is it? Road run line? Nah. Leave this one alone, unless you think the Yankees score 11, then do whatever you want.

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