Tuesday, August 24, 2010

Recap: Coming Soon!

Today: Coming Soon!

Sports Wagering: MLB

National League

Braves (-125) @ Rockies with a total of 9; J. Jurrjens vs. E. Rogers;
I'm not a monster fan of Jurrjens and his teammates on the road, but at this price, it's almost too good to pass up. I don't believe it's a shady line, since we've seen all 3 games in this series hovering between Braves as a small favorite and a pick. Yes, Rogers is coming off his only good start since hitting the Bigs, but how good will he really be in only his 2nd career start in Coors Field? My guess is not that great. Jurrjens is 4-1 with a 3.02 ERA lifetime against the Rockies, and he seems to be rounding into form, healthwise, or at least his numbers would seem to indicate as such. He has strung together 4 straight quality starts, and the Braves have won all 4.

Reds @ Giants (-111) with a total of 8; H. Bailey vs. M. Bumgarner;
Let's not forget, Homer Bailey was one of the best pitchers in all of baseball near the end of 2009, so the fact that he's back, healthy, and dealing shouldn't be a huge surprise. Since returning from injury, Bailey has gone 13 innings over 2 starts, allowing just 1 combined run on only 7 hits to the Marlins and Dodgers. I expect another decent showing against the Giants. Bumgarner just continues to rumble right along, giving solid outings every time and putting the Giants in a position to win, or at least compete. I don't much care for the side in this one, as I feel the game is close to a coin flip, anyway, but the Under in the afternoon is a possibility.

Cubs (-120) @ Nationals with a total of 8.5; R. Dempster vs. J. Marquis;
Here's an interesting one. The line certainly isn't all that tasty for a bad team on the road, but at the same time can we really put our money behind Jason Marquis? The guy is 0-6 with an ERA of 11.39 this year, for goodness sakes. He did pitch better in his last start, in Philadelphia, but still isn't going deeper than 5 innings in any game. Could it really be this easy? The Cubs hit the ball well in the opener, and maybe the new Manager syndrome is kicking in for a few days? Either way, Dempster is 6-1 with a 3.18 ERA lifetime against the Nats, and only Ryan Zimmerman has really given him any trouble in the past. I don't know, sometimes I think lines really are gifts. Tough call, though.

Astros @ Phillies (-325) with a total of 7; J. Happ vs. R. Halladay;
Don't even stop to think about it. Put a quarter unit on the Astros, and a quarter on the dog RL and just move on to the next one. Hell, we even have a revenge angle!

Cardinals (-169) @ Pirates with a total of 8.5; J. Westbrook vs. J. Karstens;
We might also be hitting that point where the Pirates are just a fade every time out, so awful in every respect that there's simply no point in even considering them. Karstens, for what it's worth, is 1-1 with a 1.50 ERA against the Cardinals, so at this price, I'd just stay away from this game, altogether.

Marlins @ Mets (-125) with a total of 8; A. Sanabia vs. M. Pelfrey;
This line is low for a reason. And yes, I'm trying to be more decisive in my writeups, if you're wondering. Sanabia is just a youngster, but he's been serviceable, only making one truly awful start, and that came in San Francisco. He bounced back his last time out with the best start of his young career with 7.2 solid innings against the hapless Pirates. Today, he'll get a better test, but I suspect we'll get about 5 innings of 2 run ball out of Sanabia. Not good, by any stretch, but not bad, and definitely enough to keep the Marlins in this one. Pelfrey hates facing Florida. Flat out - he got roughed up by them earlier this year in Puerto Rico, and he's been slapped around by the Marlins throughout his career. I know he's on a little bit of a "warm" streak, but I wouldn't touch this eerily low line on a big name starter at home. Marlins or nothing.

Dodgers @ Brewers (-110) with a total of 8; H. Kuroda vs. R. Wolf;
This line is interesting only because it's all kinds of crazy compared to yesterday's number. Ted Lilly opened as a -140 road favorite over Dave Bush, and today's matchup, which features pitchers of almost the exact same numbers, is a good 30-50 cents off from that number, depending on where you look. Kuroda is 1-0 with a 7.36 ERA against the Brewers, so that might have something to do with it, but considering how well he's pitched in his last 3 starts, this game is a true head-scratcher. After trying to be extra-decisive above, now I'm slipping back into waffling mode. Given the Dodgers are about ready to unload Manny Ramirez, something tells me they won't score much this series.

D'backs @ Padres (-166) with a total of 8; J. Saunders vs. W. LeBlanc;
This line is pretty fair. Of course, that also means it's too high for me to back the favorite, and not enough reason to back the dog. Screw this one.

American League

Royals @ Tigers (-165) with a total of 9.5; S. O'Sullivan vs. A. Galarraga;
This line is actually a little cheaper than I expected, and again I can't help but worry that there's this impending sense of doom at Comerica. Sure, the Tigers whipped up on Bruce Chen, and they've been hitting the ball extremely well on this cake of a homestand, but shouldn't Galarraga's namesake get this thing up to -175? Well, believe it or not, I happen to think that at -165, this Tigers side might still hold some value. Galarraga has solid career numbers against KC (2-0, 2.78), and he's coming off his best start since the almost-perfect game (also had 8 strikeouts). I don't play home run lines, so either lay the chalk or leave the day tilt alone.

Mariners @ Red Sox (-150) with a total of 7.5; F. Hernandez vs. J. Lester;
It's funny, actually. Two of the most electric starters going head-to-head in this one, and I have almost zero opinion on the game. I honestly just don't feel like I have a good read on the Red Sox right now, and the Mariners seem to stink, but then jump up and win one when you least expect it every so often. King Felix should keep them in the game, and Lester is outstanding and on bounceback. I might look at the Over, but I'd rather just move on.

Rays @ Angels (-120) with a total of 8.5; J. Niemann vs. D. Haren;
I know I said I don't like backing guys coming off an arm situation, but Niemann has been a complete cash cow this year. On top of that, he beat the Angels here in Anaheim earlier this year, so we know he's comfortable on this mound. And even on top of that, Dan Haren is continuing to get ace-like betting love even though his ERA is 4.55, and he's coming off getting drilled by the Twins. The guy just isn't having his type of year, and getting an amazing road club at a dog price is pretty darn tempting. The concern, of course, is whether Niemann's shoulder is alright, because backing an injured pitcher is a sure way to age at double-speed.

Athletics (-150) @ Indians with a total of 7.5; T. Cahill vs. M. Talbot;
Looking at the stats and box scores, it appears that Mitch Talbot has just about run out of steam for 2010. Arm fatigue, perhaps, but he was slowing heading into the All Star Break, had about 2 decent starts coming out of the Break, then ran out of gas, again. We faded him in his last start, and everything was going swimmingly until the KC bullpen melted down in dramatic fashion. Trevor Cahill is having a ridiculous season, now 13-5 with a 2.54 ERA for a team that's hovering right around .500. Very impressive. He's 0-1 with a 12.27 ERA against the Indians, though, and I can't help but think that if he walks a few guys, and Talbot stinks again, we could get to 8 runs.

Yankees (-132) @ Blue Jays with a total of 8.5; P. Hughes vs. B. Cecil;
With Toronto playing with a bit of a chip on their shoulder, I'm not sure I could bet the Yankees in any game this series. I know the numbers probably say that Hughes is the way to go with this one, but he's been a little up-and-down against the Jays, and Toronto's power is always threatening. Plus, he seems to be going shorter distances in games, even when he pitches well. Cecil is a solid young arm, not great against the Yankees, but I think this game is about a 50/50 proposition, so at the price listed, it's Jays or nothing at all. As you all know, when I say that, I'm usually leaning towards the nothing at all option, but hey, you never know.

Twins @ Rangers (-144) with a total of 8.5; B. Duensing vs. C. Wilson;
What the hell, man? Why didn't someone tell me Brian Duensing was going to roll back into the Bigs and crush fools? I mean, damn. He's 1-1 with a 1.74 ERA against the Rangers, and should probably put together another decent start. C.J. Wilson is coming off a dominant performance in Baltimore (with the help of a truly colossal strike zone), and though he's 0-2 with a 3.41 ERA against the Twins, he's certainly a threat to throw another solid game. I'd say the one thing tipping the scales towards the Rangers is that Minnesota has looked out of sorts a bit, the last couple games, and Duensing has been markedly better at home, which is pretty impressive considering he hasn't been that bad on the road. Wilson, by the way, had a great game going against the Twins earlier this year, but made a few mistakes, and the Twins hit them all hard as hell.

Orioles @ White Sox (-185) with a total of 9; B. Matusz vs. M. Buerhle;
There's always value with a motivated dog. That being said, unless we're putting some money on Baltimore every single game from this point forward, this game, to me, doesn't look like the best time to jump on the bandwagon. Buerhle is 5-4 with a 2.81 ERA against the O's, and while Matusz is coming off a strong start at home, he's still pretty damn erratic. Again, I'm not backing the White Sox, either, but with the Sox desperately needing wins, the Orioles will probably sneak a game in this series, but I'd feel better backing Baltimore in a series that means less to its opponent.

No comments:

Your Ad Here

The information contained on this page is for entertainment purposes only; any use of this information in violation of any federal, state, or local laws is prohibited. The owner of this website assumes no responsibility for the actions by and makes no representation or endorsement of any of these games and/or activities offered by the advertiser.