Monday, September 27, 2010

Baseball Roundup for Tuesday

Recap: Monday was a STRONG performance, as the Indians mopped up the Tigers for an easy winner on the bases, and the Chicago Bears cashed our 2* NFL Game of the Week! That completed just a 2-4 NFL Week 3...BUT...we cashed the 2* and the 3*, and all 4 losses were on 1* Best Bets. So, not my ideal week, but TURNED A PROFIT, and that really feels nice after Sunday being rather ugly. And MLB is just crushing right now!

Today: Uh oh, it's Tuesday...that sound you hear is 70% of Pregame dozing off simultaneously...but not this guy!

It's a very, very tough week to bet the bases, but the huge keys this week involve teams wrapping up home schedules (Fan Appreciation Days, youngsters in front of big crowds, road teams that have packed it in, etc.), and I'm confident we can continue to nail MLB plays on a daily basis!

A ton of games don't have lines yet, so I'm not going to post a package until the morning, when I can be completely sure we'll have an MLB Top Play. Stay tuned!

Sports Wagering: MLB

Dodgers @ Rockies (-134) with a total of 9; H. Kuroda vs. J. Francis;
I don't often considering backing a team with a slightly inflated line, but this one is staying low because of Jeff Francis's struggles, and because the road team is still going to draw SOME money just because they're the Dodgers. The issue with this game is not, in my opinion, whether the Rockies will put up a few runs. They just will against Kuroda, who can't seem to solve this team, and certainly does not enjoy his trips to Coors. The issue is with Francis. He's been a complete disaster in his 2 starts since another 1-month "break", and hasn't cleared 4 innings in either of them. How can we really trust Francis to get the job done, even against a poor-hitting Dodgers team, when he gave up 5 runs to them earlier this year when he was actually completing 5 innings? The Over is certainly in play, as is the home team if you believe Francis can put together even a start that borders on quality. My take is that the Rockies will likely score 5-6 runs, so the question is whether the Dodgers score 3, which would make the home team the bet, or 5, which would make the Over the bet.

Mariners (-119) @ Rangers with a total of 8; F. Hernandez vs. S. Feldman;
This one caught my attention because the line is extremely strong in Seattle's favor. That being said, this ballpark is one of the select few that has given the King some issues in the past. He has a 7-run debacle under his belt from earlier this year, in Texas. To me, the competing angles lead down the road to a pass, but we can explore why just a tad more. First, Felix was a +115 road dog the last time he was in Texas, facing Colby Lewis, so that matches up relatively will, given Feldman's terrible work in 2010. Felix was a -140 road favorite in Toronto against Shawn Hill, a game the Mariners lost 1-0. On closer inspection, the line is about where it should be. So, writing off the strength of the opening number, I think you actually have to consider the home team. Teams playing in front of those frantic crowds the last few days of the year, and teams making the playoffs for the first time in over a decade are going to have a rambunctious fan base. Will Texas field a reasonable lineup, though? That's the huge problem. They need to get their starters in line for the postseason, and get those nagging injuries to go away in the regulars. We might see 3-4 starters sit every night between now and the end of the year, and if that's the case, we might as well wait before playing a game. Hell, the line might move 15-20 cents towards Seattle if Texas scratches Michael Young and Vladdy.

Athletics @ Angels (-129) with a total of 7; D. Braden vs. D. Haren;
Here's an intriguing game. Try to follow this logic. The A's pitching has faltered in their last few games, and they dropped a rather ugly home series to the Rangers, despite Texas clinching the division and playing the finale hung over. Normally reliable, when the A's don't pitch, they don't win. The Angels haven't been scoring at all, and they got swept at home by the White Sox. This is the Angels last home series, so I expect a little better effort here than they put forth against Chicago. Dan Haren has quietly been pitching his butt off, but the Angels are out of it, so no one is taking notice. Braden has struggled with the Angels this year, but if they don't hit, they could make him look good, and he's coming off a fantastic start his last time out. What does this mean? Not a ton. I think the angles shake out in favor of the home team just by a hair, but to me, the line is almost right where it should be. The one factor that might tip it in the Angels favor, in my mind, is that the Angels are about 2 games back of Oakland in the AL West, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Scioscia get his guys to try to pass Oakland for 2nd place and grab at that straw to end the year.

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