Tuesday, September 21, 2010

Bashing the Bases

Recap: We went betting with the Fishies, and it paid off! Florida took care of the Mets last night for our MLB Top Play, winning 5-2 with the longball. What does that mean for us? Well, the Paid Run is now at 12-3, and the MLB Run is at 8-2 (as well as 5 straight winning MLB weeks!). We did drop the SMALL freebie on the Nationals/Astros Under, which was a 3-1 game in the 8th inning when the Nationals decided to score 7 runs in just 3 outs. I honestly thought we had that small one, too, which would have been neat, but nailing the Top Play nightly to turn a profit is alright with me!


I have to say -- I am just elated with how much attention my baseball work has gotten in the last couple days! I expected the same old formula to take shape, where everyone just crawls back into their holes until Thursday, but with a nice turnout on yesterday's Paid Play (and everyone WON), I just have to commend you all on being SHARP enough to play the VALUE, regardless of the sport! As I said yesterday, "Baseball has been quietly kicking phat azz (yeah, I went there), so really, while everyone else is crying their eyes out that football is off for a couple days...the MLB stretch run and postseason are right here before us!"

If you want Wednesday's MLB GAME OF THE WEEK (remember, just a 2*!), it's at my Pro Page at DanBebe.com, or just click here: ADD to CART

And again, just a few games previewed per day from here on out.

Sports Wagering: MLB

Requested: Braves @ Phillies (-147) with a total of 7.5; T. Hanson vs. R. Oswalt;
This game was requested to be profiled, so let's crack 'er open. The key here, obviously, is that the Phillies are on a 9-game winning streak, and Citizens Bank Park is just rocking right now. The home field edge is huge for the Phillies, they're cruising, they have Oswalt on the hill - what could go wrong, right? Well, not so fast. Despite the Braves sinking slowly and the Phillies trying to run away with things, this line is rather low. That could have something to do with Oswalt being 0-3 lifetime against the Braves with an ERA of 7.58. Tommy Hanson hasn't been great against the Phillies, but he's been better than that. So, the Braves are the value side? Yes, but the Phillies are just about as hot as any team can get, which makes betting against them a little bit of a roll of the dice. Put those factors head-to-head (momentum and starting pitcher edge), and, to me, you've got yourself a classic PASS.

Astros (-119) @ Nationals with a total of 8; W. Rodriguez vs. J. Marquis;
I broke this game out for the Roundup today because I believe that those that are just now starting to bet on Wandy Rodriguez have missed the boat. Hear that? It's too late! The lines have adjusted, and he's now a road favorite. Add to that the fact that Jason Marquis draws about as much money as my buddy Brad Bergesen, and this line is clearly inflated on the Astros side. The Nationals got a nice win last night with a monster 8th inning rally, and these young, rather crummy teams (like the Nats) definitely tend to operate on momentum at this point in the season. I could very well envision Washington putting up another crooked number against even Magic Wandy, so please do take caution before backing the guy you've been hearing about for 6 weeks. Plus, Marquis is coming off a start where he went just 0.1 innings, so you know he's going to be out for revenge against someone.

Indians @ Twins with a total of N/A; C. Carrasco vs. N. Blackburn;
This line is off right now, most likely because as I type this the Twins are blasting each other in the face with champagne. Their win last night, combined with the White Sox loss in Oakland has sealed the AL Central, and the Twins are going to be getting their drink on. This is an afternoon game, which means only 1 thing. Hangover. If this line comes out looking funny, fear not. The Indians are going to be the sober team, and I wouldn't be surprised to see some real scrubs in there for Minnesota, trying their best not to puke during warmups. It's an early-ish game, so keep your eye on this line and on any news regarding lineups and pitching changes, but there could be some money to be stolen on this afternoon tilt, thanks to the thousands of bettors that had no idea the Twins were out partying all night.

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