Sunday, September 26, 2010

Final Week of Baseball

Recap: As usual, Monday's thread will contain a full Weekend Recap, since we had just one slow thread over Saturday and Sunday.

Saturday was a very nice start to the weekend, going a perfect 2-0 in MLB with winners on the Tigers and underdog Marlins, and going 2-2 in College Football, but hitting the 2* Game of the Week on my Cal Bears. Put it all together, we profited 0.8 units in CFB, and 2.26 units in MLB for 3.06 units overall.

Sunday was certainly less impressive. We lost all four 1-unit plays in NFL, which really punched us in the stomach. Fortunately, we nailed the 3* Game of the Month on the Seattle Seahawks, and the only MLB play on the Arizona D'backs. So, another unit of profit in MLB, but dropped approximately 1.4-1.5 units in the NFL (depending on the price of buying a hook for everyone out there). A net loss of roughly half a unit on the day.

Of course, I want more on Sunday. I want to win every day. But, if we hit all of our "BIG" plays, and nail an underdog money line play in the MLB such that we PROFIT 2.5 units every weekend...well, I won't complain about that. I DEFINITELY want to prove that week 1 in the NFL was NOT A FLUKE, but I do like knowing that everyone that followed every play I put out is once again IN THE BLACK for the weekend. Moving on to Monday.

Today: The first two weeks of the season, we had 1* plays on Monday Night Football, so you guys can trust that I won't increase that unless the situation is spot on. Tonight, it's spot on. So, we WILL have a 2* Game of the Week size play on the Packers/Bears showdown. I'm pumped for it, and you can get it here: ADD MNF GOW to CART!

As always, ANY and ALL MLB plays on Saturday through Monday will be FREE through the rest of the regular season! I've said it once and I'll say it a million times, NO ONE on this planet has given out more FREE STUFF (be it Premium Plays, Podcasts, or Blogs that break down EVERY game, EVERY day). Some call me the Matchup Scientist; I'd rather you guys call me The Most Generous Man in Handicapping.

Sports Wagering: MLB

Marlins @ Braves (-184) with a total of 8; A. Sanabia vs. T. Hanson;
This game is a "Warwick Capper" request, so let's break it down. First, the Marlins finish up their road schedule with this series, which makes me think that focus is not going to be terribly solid. Hanson has been dealing, and on namesake alone, the line is inflated. On top of that, the Braves are in a "must-win" situation because of the Wild Card race, which inflates the line further. Put all those factors together (and that the Marlins are generally stronger against lefties), and to me, you have yourself a perfect PASS. The Braves are probably going to win, but to me, the inflation of the line in THIS GAME isn't quite enough. Maybe it should be at -175, and you're getting 9 cents of value. That might work for someone that has the bankroll to bet every game, since this particular game played 1,000 times might net a tiny profit, but we can't operate like that because we're normal people.

Cubs @ Padres (-149) with a total of 7; C. Zambrano vs. T. Stauffer;
This is another "Warwick Capper" request! Stauffer has really been a warrior for the Padres down the stretch. Both of these teams are coming off losses at home yesterday, and for the Cubs, that was their home finale, so I imagine not the best taste in their mouth. Herein lies the issue. The final WEEK of the MLB season, we have to handicap how much these guys actually want to be playing. For most of September, handicapping motivation was about finding the overachieving youngsters playing for roster spots, but now, teams that are done at home and head on the road with just a few lonely nights in a San Diego hotel (or downtown with a drink) separating them from the offseason might find focusing extra-tough. Yes, the line is, once again, inflated for the team in the "must-win" spot, and yes, Zambrano has been a monster cashing tickets the second half of the season, but this is another game that has too many competing angles. And, truth be told, this final week of the season we need to take MLB selectivity to a whole new level, and I'd consider avoiding any games involving teams still in a race against teams not in a race.

Tigers (-114) @ Indians with a total of 9; A. Galarraga vs. C. Carrasco;
Armando faces the one team that just has not figured him out. He pitched the "perfect" game against Cleveland way back in the early parts of this year, and then followed that up with 7 shutout frames against the Indians in August. Now, all that said, Galarraga is not healthy. Being in Detroit, I have the privilege of hearing discussion of these cats on a daily basis, and Galarraga has been battling some shoulder soreness. I believe Jim Leyland wanted to skip a start for Armando at some point, but a minor injury to Rick Porcello last week forced Armando to make a couple starts with pain, and he's been getting shelled. Detroit just swept Minnesota at home in their final home series, so they're in a little bit of a letdown spot, and Cleveland is coming off a nice series with the Royals, and with another series win could solidify their spot NOT in the AL Central cellar. To me, the Indians have way more on the line here, and might even get a crowd to come check out the final series of the year. Be careful before betting the short price on the "seemingly" better team.

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