Wednesday, September 15, 2010

I Still Choose Baseball

Recap: Just one play in MLB last night, and we got an EASY 6-run, wire-to-wire win from the Minnesota Twins, who just continue to pick on the White Sox! That makes 3 straight MLB winners this week (1 every weekday), and add that to the 4-1 Sunday, and MNF winner, and we're a quiet little 8-1 on all plays this week! What did I say a couple days ago? We're not going to go NUTS with baseball, but we're going to scratch and CLAW, and come up with units, and we did just that.

Today: I thought long and hard (where's Beavis when you need him...) about making a TOP PLAY in the College Football game tonight, but after close inspection, I decided to do what can potentially be known in the 'capper community as "the opposite of making money." That's right, despite everyone salivating at the idea of getting a CFB play, I'm sticking with the bases! Crazy? Maybe. But I happen to believe that there are some great MLB choices, even on the short card, and you can get my Preferred Selection HERE, at my PRO PAGE. Hell, there might be more games Thursday with workable lines than there were on the full Tuesday and Wednesday cards! Bottom line, I'm not going to charge you guys for something unless I'm 200% (yep, doubly good) confident in it. Just call me Mr. Nice Guy.

If I make a play in the CFB game, it will be here in this thread, and 100% FREE, much like 99% of what I do around here.

Sports Wagering: MLB

National League

D'backs @ Reds (-185) with a total of 9; R. Lopez vs. E. Volquez;
Somehow, Rodrigo Lopez has only allowed 1 homer over his last 3 starts. Considering he's the king of the gopherball, it seems like just a matter of time before someone starts teeing off. Is it this one? Volquez is coming off, unquestionably, his best start since returning to the Reds rotation, dominating the Pirates. He had been pretty iffy prior to that start, but it makes him dangerous moving forward, because we know how streaky pitchers can be, and a guy coming off injury might be finding a stride. Pass.

Pirates @ Mets (-215) with a total of 8.5; C. Morton vs. M. Pelfrey;
Good lord, Charlie Morton is a train wreck. He's 1-11 this year, his team is 1-12 in his starts (which, for those counting, means he leaves the game losing just about every single time. A guy with a 9.05 ERA isn't going to leave much value on the other side. So, while I'd love to suggest a play on the Mets, or the run line, this one has all the makings of a game that ends up closer than anyone thinks.

Padres @ Cardinals (-125) with a total of 7.5; T. Stauffer vs. J. Westbrook;
San Diego actually played a solid series in Colorado, though they were unable to complete the sweep. Still, I like how the Padres are responding to that losing streak, and I like how they're responding to the pressure of the Playoffs. It seems like this team takes a few days to adjust to a new situation, but adding some veterans has helped a bit, and Tim Stauffer, despite being a miserable 0-3 with a 10.13 ERA against the Cards, lifetime, is having a ridiculously amazing year, and I think he gives them at least a coin-flip chance to win.

Dodgers @ Giants (-140) with a total of 7; T. Lilly vs. J. Sanchez;
Jonathan Sanchez, like his buddy Matt Cain, finally got a win against the Dodgers this year, but the difference is that Sanchez got his first only a couple weeks ago with 7 dominant innings in LA. Can he go with a follow-up? Well, he walked 7 but tossed 5 shutout innings against the Padres. But, can he really walk 7 in 5 innings and get away with it, again? There's value on the spoilers here, but the Dodgers can't seem to hit a lick, so it's just a small amount of value. More of a "volume play" on the side, potential value on the Under, too.

American League

Angels @ Indians (-115) with a total of 8; E. Santana vs. F. Carmona;
I happen to think that the Indians opening as a favorite means something. Maybe I'm nuts, but that's how I feel. The Angels have stunk for the last month, but the public still isn't going to back the Indians, even though Carmona is about the one player on Cleveland's roster that can attract a public dollar or two. Ervin Santana is 0-6 lifetime against the Indians with a 5.71 ERA. Carmona is 0-2 against the Angels, BUT his ERA is just 1.90, so he's been unlucky to lose. Food for thought, as always.

Twins (-115) @ White Sox with a total of 8.5; C. Pavano vs. M. Buerhle;
I believe this line is set pretty accurately. To me, this one could go either way, and depends largely on how last night's game ends (we'll know soon, as I'm typing this in the late afternoon). Why? Well, I happen to think that the White Sox level of effort is going to fluctuate a great deal on that result. The Twins are going to come out and play hard, and they seem pretty comfortable with a pennant race (kudos to Ron Gardenhire, once again). Pavano has pitched well against the White Sox a few times this year, though he got waxed by them the last time these teams met. Buerhle has been tremendous against Minnesota this year, so if the White Sox show a little fight, they could be a nice tiny dog, here.

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