Sunday, September 12, 2010

Make 'Em Say Uhh

Recap: I'm not sure I can remember a more satisfying "Recap" than this one. Perfect 4-0 in the NFL yesterday, including a Game of the Week winner on the Jags. The Patriots slammed the Bengals, the Steelers outlasted the Falcons, and Dallas and Washington played themselves a very ugly game that stayed at about half the posted total. We lost a half-size freebie on the Nationals, but that barely put a dent in a colossal start to NFL!

Haven't had a true blog in a couple days as weekends are simply too hectic for me this time of year, so I'll quickly note that College Football once again went 2-2 on Saturday, and was an injured QB away from 3-1. Oh well. Going 2-2 isn't fun, but Sunday turned the weekend into a wildly profitable one, so it's tough to stay annoyed with Saturday!

Today: With multiple sports going, I think the "Orders of Business" I typed in my weekend threads were probably the best organizational tool, so...

1) College Football Monday -- This one is simple. Off a 4-0 weekend where the big public teams picked up wins (we didn't bet those scary games), there are 2 Monday Night Football tilts. I have a 2* Best Bet on the LATE GAME to finish off a 5-0 NFL week 1, and you can get it HERE: DanBebe.com

2) Monday Bases -- This one is a little less simple. I've been giving away ALL my MLB STUFF (this blog, the Leantracker and all my plays -- WHO, on this planet, has written up EVERY game, EVERY day since December, for FREE??) completely free on every day when I have football plays, and MOST LIKELY, I'll do that again, today. Football is king, and the last few weeks of MLB can be very screwy, so let's focus on just finding 1 or 2 (max!) baseball plays, play them relatively small, and try to grind out a couple more weeks of MLB winners!

3) The Midweek -- To Be Determined!

Sports Wagering: MLB

National League

D'backs @ Reds (-169) with a total of 9; B. Enright vs. B. Arroyo;
I know Enright is having himself a tremendous Rookie season, but the Reds just want these more, and that's reason enough, THIS LATE IN THE YEAR, to stay away from an inflated line on a big game for one team, and a rather meaningless game for the other.

Phillies (-144) @ Marlins with a total of 9.5; J. Blanton vs. A. Miller;
You guys know how I feel about road favorites most of the year, but now is a time when those teams that have a fire can actually go out and win as a short road fave. Blanton is 4-2 with a 3.35 ERA against the Fish, including giving up 4 runs (only 2 earned) in a win over Florida not too long ago. The issue I have with this game is that Miller got lit up for 7 runs by the Phils 5 days ago, and even though he's an awful 0-4 with a 6.42 ERA lifetime against Philly, I'm concerned he'll get a little bounceback energy going. It looks easy, the line is pretty fair, but do we have the nuts to lay the chalk?

Pirates @ Mets (-179) with a total of 8; J. McDonald vs. D. Gee;
Gee was fantastic in his ML debut against the Nats, giving up just a run on 2 hits in 7 innings. We'll see if he can carry some of that over against the road-clunker that is the Pittsburgh franchise. James McDonald gave up 5 runs in 5 innings to the Mets, but has been pitching alright of late. This line is inflated for the Mets, but I don't have the confidence to back Pittsburgh away from home.

Nationals @ Braves (-185) with a total of 8.5; Y. Maya vs. D. Lowe;
The Braves are looking rather human, but come on, these are the Nats. I realize that, midseason, fading Lowe against Washington is probably the way to go, but the Nats are playing terrible ball right now off a monster offensive explosion last week, and after backing them once, I've learned my lesson. Just stay away from the Nats until they start scoring 8 runs/game, then maybe back them. Just maybe.

Brewers @ Astros (-135) with a total of 7.5; C. Narveson vs. B. Myers;
When I saw this pitching matchup, I wanted to grab Myers and ride him to victory, but looking closer, Myers has been nearly unhittable this year by everyone except Milwaukee. This is his 4th start against the Brewers, and Myers has lost the previous 3 (pitching well in just 1 of them). I'd be careful before paying for the home team, here, especially since Narveson (who was a prime fade for me earlier this year) is actually coming on strong this month. He's on a run of 3 straight very strong starts, and the Brewers have won 4 of his last 5 outings. The dog might have a little value here, as the world has caught on to the Astros' winning ways.

Cubs @ Cardinals with a total of N/A; J. Samardzija vs. J. Garcia;
This line is going to be pretty hefty, and I wouldn't touch it. The pride of Notre Dame could give up 7 runs in 3 innings, or pull a rabbit out of his hat. Garcia is likely to be solid at home, but the Cubs can actually hit lefties a little. Pass.

Padres @ Rockies (-145) with a total of 9; C. Luebke vs. J. Francis;
Luebke is making just his 3rd start, but already his 2nd against the Rox and 1st in Coors Field. A little scary. Francis is making his 1st start in a month, and only made 1 rebah appearance, so his pitch count is only at 80, or so. He's also just 5-11 lifetime against the Padres, and got spanked once against them this year, and pitched only slightly better one other time. I'd love to back the red hot Rockies, but I'd almost rather look at the Over. Luebke is going to get a taste of Coors, and Francis is only going 4, maybe 5 innings. We should see some runs.

American League

Athletics (-119) @ Royals with a total of 8.5; B. Cramer vs. L. Hochevar;
Bobby Cramer, welcome to the Bigs. Enjoy a cupcake? Kind of. Cramer is a very old first-timer, 30 years of age and formerly a teacher. But, apparently, he's figured out how to pitch, and he's jumped to the Bigs to take the rotation spot of Vin Mazzaro. The A's are 5-1 against the Royals this year, and the superior pitching has been the key. Luke Hochevar is 0-4 with an 11.37 lifetime ERA against the A's, so that doesn't bode well, and this is his first start in ages. He did pitch in relief and got shelled, and this cheap line might be a blessing, since Royals Manager Ned Yost has already said he's going to play some kids against non-playoff opponents.

Blue Jays @ Orioles (-124) with a total of 9; M. Rzepczynski vs. B. Matusz;
How about this line? Brian Matusz is a short favorite against the Jays, a team he has managed to amass a ridiculous 22.85 ERA against. Yikes. Then again, oddsmakers aren't stupid, and Rzepczynski has been getting clubbed lately, the Jays haven't been playing that well after beating up on pitchers in the first half of their recent homestand, and the Orioles (and Matusz) are absolutely rolling. I don't see how you can back Toronto, but I see plenty of reasons to consider Baltimore.

Yankees (-114) @ Rays with a total of 7.5; C. Sabathia vs. D. Price;
This is, unquestionably, the game of the night, but I'm not sure I want to bet it. The Rays have been out on the road for quite some time, so that first game home could be an odd one, and the Yankees have been nothing short of dominant in September over the last few years. Sabathia got knocked around in his first bid for win #20, but tonight the lefty showdown should bring out his best. I'd honestly rather just watch this one on the small TV with MNF on the big one.

Red Sox (-184) @ Mariners with a total of 6.5; J. Lester vs. D. Fister;
This line is wildly inflated, so it's Mariners or nothing at this price, but every time I bet the Mariners I want to gouge my eyes out, win or lose. I'd prefer to just avoid it unless you think one team wakes up and scores 5-6 by themselves.

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