Sunday, September 19, 2010

Monday Night Plan Changes

Recap: Since I don't do a daily thread over the weekend, let's do a quick roundup, sport by sport.

College Football: We went just 1-2 in CFB, but won the 2* Game of the Week, and dropped both Freebies. Roughly, we broke even, and I do like knowing that folks that scratched together the 15 bucks got a winner, at the very least. Some sort of silver lining for me, considering...

NFL was not particularly impressive, also going 1-2, but dropping the bigger play. Just way, way off on the NY Giants call, and I will atone for that next weekend. Fortunately...

Baseball continues to storm the barn! We went 2-1 on MLB plays over the weekend, with a larger free winner on the Pirates on Saturday, a medium free winner on the underdog Cubbies yesterday, and a small loser on the Red Sox on Saturday. Baseball made sure that despite less-than-stellar performances on the gridiron, we basically treaded water this weekend.

And, considering we had a 9-1 Paid Run going into the weekend, we're still WAY, WAY up of late, and still rolling along with almost 5 straight winning weeks!

Today: If you had the gumption to make it through the "recap" (you guys know I like to make a point of recapping everything!), here are the Orders of Business for the week at hand:

1) We have a 1* play going in tonight's MNF contest between the Niners and Saints. I REALLY believe STRONGLY that this game does NOT warrant a big play, so be careful with everyone trying to ram a "GIANT" play down your throat. Let's just get this unit, NEVER chase, and keep clawing away: ADD MNF Play to Cart!

2) Don't say I never gave anything away! We have all these blogs, podcasts, and MORE, and on top of that, I've been giving away FREE MLB winners almost every day there's been football, and that will continue Monday. Any MLB Winners will be posted right here in this thread, and at my Pro Page: DanBebe.com

3) With MLB winding down, and the Bebe madness known as NBA right around the corner, this is a time of year where I really like to take some time to collect my thoughts. Thus, because there are so many MLB games daily that are simply unbettable, I will be doing my MLB writeups on the TOP THREE REQUESTED GAMES, daily. So, start submitting requests for the FOLLOWING DAY'S MLB CARD, and I'll do a few writeups, but not the whole card. These blogs take multiple hours to write daily, and on top of the multiple hours that get spent on the card handicapping, it's VERY important to avoid burnout heading into my favorite time of year, and the time when I want to spend the MOST energy on blogging.

Sports Wagering: MLB

National League

Cardinals (-144) @ Marlins with a total of 8; C. Carpenter vs. C. Volstad;
I generally feel pretty strongly that betting inflated road favorites is a losing long term proposition, but at the same time, grabbing one every so often in the short term isn't completely nuts. Florida is slumping, big time, and the Cards played a solid series with the Padres. Carpenter is 3-1 against the Fish with an ERA in the 1's, and Volstad is a perma-fade for me. I'm considering St Louis, if nothing else comes my way.

Braves @ Phillies (-164) with a total of 8; J. Jurrjens vs. C. Hamels;
Hamels and the Phils have been way too hot to fade. Jurrjens has been struggling a bit in his last couple starts. However, he does have solid career numbers against Philadelphia, so I wonder if maybe he comes through with a better start than people expect. I'd go Phillies or Under...or likely, nothing.

Astros @ Nationals (-138) with a total of 8; B. Norris vs. L. Hernandez;
Livan went through a month of poor starts, but he bounced back his last time out with 8 shutout innings against the Braves. Norris has been rock solid in his last few starts, as well, and the Astros just keep winning late in the year. If Livan was still struggling, I'd put my house on Houston, but with Hernandez getting things back on track, that makes this game much tougher to bet. I'd consider the road dog, and I'd consider the Under.

Reds (-119) @ Brewers with a total of 9; H. Bailey vs. C. Capuano;
Someone might want to tell the Reds that they still have to win a couple more games before the NL Central is completely locked up. This might be a nice series to get those wins. I have to admit, I'm a little surprised at how cheap the Reds are, but I happen to believe there are actually more reasons to back Cincinnati than Milwaukee. The Brewers are hitting pretty well, and Bailey doesn't have particularly strong numbers against them, but Milwaukee comes home off a 6-game road trip that took them to San Francisco, and we know how that first game home can go.

American League

Royals @ Tigers (-124) with a total of 7.5; Z. Greinke vs. R. Porcello;
This line is higher than I would have expected, though I suppose the general losing attitude of the Royals makes it somewhat believable. Here's my concern with both sides. Greinke doesn't seem fully focused, and Porcello was scratched from his last start because of lingering issues with his pitching index finger. Dangerous spot to play anything other than the Over.

Rays @ Yankees (-125) with a total of 9; M. Garza vs I. Nova;
This is a Rematch from a meeting down in Tampa, where both pitchers got shellacked in a game the Yankees won 8-7. The total moved up a half-tick, so that's pretty standard, and the line shifted by about 45 cents, so that's pretty normal, too. The Rays didn't look good against the Angels between these series with New York, and the Yankees do tend to beat up on fools in the Bronx. I prefer the home team, despite Nova's implosion last time he saw Tampa.

Orioles @ Red Sox (-154) with a total of 9; B. Matusz vs. D. Matsuzaka;
There is tremendous value with the Orioles here, and if it wasn't immediately evident in how the two teams are playing, the rather low line should be a second indicator. Matusz pitches above himself against the best in the League, and Daisuke has been scuffling, to say the least. At least consider the Orioles before doing anything else with this one.

Indians @ Twins (-215) with a total of 8.5; J. Gomez vs. B. Duensing;
The Twins appear to be suffering through a slight letdown off that big series sweep against the White Sox. Be careful.

White Sox @ Athletics (-149) with a total of 7; G. Floyd vs. G. Gonzalez;
This is a tough travel game for Chicago, playing in the late ESPN contest last night, and since they're virtually eliminated from the Playoffs, you have to believe the energy isn't there. That said, Floyd has been outstanding against the A's (3-0, 1.32), and Gonzalez has been a turd against the White Sox (0-3, 8.82). I'd look at the dog just because no one else is going to give them the time of day off being "eliminated"...

Rangers @ Angels (-155) with a total of 7.5; D. Holland vs. J. Weaver;
Jered Weaver usually holds his own against Texas when he faces them in Anaheim. It's going to be a decent series, and this big line should give you an indicator that oddsmakers still expect the Angels to give it their best. I think this line is fair, though that might make me seem nuts.

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