Tuesday, September 14, 2010

O Yea

Recap: Second verse, same as the first; a little bit shorter, a little bit, um, less stressful? We backed the Baltimore Orioles for the second straight night, and for the second straight night, the O's smacked the Blue Jays in the mouth. After a 4-3 extra-inning win on Monday, they pounded Toronto 11-3 yesterday, and we'll take 'em both. Again, this is NOT a time to go big, but it's definitely a time we can steal a few units down the stretch!

Today: ONE MORE DAY OF BASES! Haha, I know, most of you probably aren't feeling the excitement, but I happen to enjoy baseball (with the possible exception of that fetid month), and we're on a nice run of 3-4 straight weeks of baseball profit. No reason to think we can't grab another unit or two today. If you want to collect another little nibble heading into the return of football, join me at my Pro Page, DanBebe.com!

Sports Wagering: MLB

National League

Nationals @ Braves (-185) with a total of 8.5; J. Lannan vs. M. Minor;
As discussed many times, the motivational edge is generally enough to keep me off games, but I think I need to be more explicit. I'm not avoiding these games because the better team is so much better than they're the only way to go. I'm avoiding these games because, as No Limit is doing a fine job of tracking, the odds are inflated on the team with motivation. If you bet all the dogs, you're in good shape, but picking and choosing from among the dogs can be very, very finicky. That's why I'm dodging these games, in an effort to simplify capping.

Brewers @ Astros (-155) with a total of 7.5; D. Bush vs. J. Happ;
Screw it, I'm back to not betting Dave Bush starts. I can't get this guy locked down, and now it's in my head. This one should be a win for the Astros on paper, but lord knows Bush will throw 7 shutout innings if I bet on Houston. Pass.

Padres @ Rockies (-153) with a total of 9; C. Richard vs. J. De La Rosa;
This is a pretty damn important late afternoon game, but to me, that complicates things a tad. Richard is 1-1 with a 4.32 ERA against the Rockies, and the Padres have done a nice job pitching in this series so far against a very hot opponent. Both of these starters have been extremely up-and-down against the other team this year, and both have fared better in San Diego (no surprise, there). The Rockies are going to get this inflated number moving up if they're trying to avoid a sweep (we'll know shortly), so if you believe the Padres have a good shot, they're a decent value.

D'backs @ Reds (-200) with a total of 9; J. Saunders vs. H. Bailey;
Yet another hyper-inflated line, and yet another game I'd have a very tough time playing unless the situation was perfect. It is not. Saunders is 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA against the Reds, and Bailey has been quite effective since coming off the DL. The D'backs got a tremendous outing (again) from Daniel Hudson yesterday, so you have to think the Reds bounce back. I'd be nervous to play the dog in this one, and even more nervous to pay the price on the inflated fave.

Phillies @ Marlins with a total of N/A; R. Halladay vs. B. Badenhop;
Um, not even touching this one.

Pirates @ Mets (-160) with a total of 8; P. Maholm vs. J. Mejia;
I could literally write the same exact note on this game that I did yesterday. If this game was in Pittsburgh, I'd be all over the Pirates, but I just can't trust that team on the road, even if the young Mejia is 0-4. Confound it, if only this game wasn't a home game for New York.

Cubs @ Cardinals (-205) with a total of 7; C. Zambrano vs. C. Carpenter;
We successfully backed Zambrano in his last start, and certainly, there remains some value with him, here, but the biggest key to that outing was that he was the player on the field that cared the most about the game at hand. In this one, the Cards still believe they have a shot, albeit a long one. Carpenter is 10-4 with a 2.87 ERA against the Cubbies lifetime, too, so that makes fading him a tad tougher.

Dodgers @ Giants (-145) with a total of 7; C. Billingsley vs. M. Cain;
There is some serious value with the spoilers in this one. I know it sounds insane, but Matt Cain's issues with the Dodgers are almost too juicy to pass up. Billingsley is 6-2 with a 2.73 ERA. Cain is 1-8 with a 4.03 ERA against the Dodgers, who just seem to get that one key hit against him, or his opponent throws a complete game shutout. Of course, the line is pretty high on the Giants side, but it matches up alright with yesterday's, in terms of what you'd expect from game to game.

American League

Red Sox (-171) @ Mariners with a total of 7; J. Lester vs. D. Pauley;
This one falls into that inflated number spot, but the Mariners are sucking so hard that it's not worth even exploring.

Angels (-135) @ Indians with a total of 8; J. Weaver vs. J. Gomez;
Jeanmar Gomez has definitely shown the ability to shut teams down, which immediately makes the Indians a reasonable play. Weaver has been far superior at home, and even though he has a solid 3-1 lifetime record against the Indians, if they can scratch across 3 runs, I think they have a decent shot of coming up with an underdog winner. Gomez hasn't pitched in 10 days, however, so there may be some concern about arm strength.

Blue Jays @ Orioles (-120) with a total of 9.5; K. Drabek vs B. Bergesen;
To be quite frank, I have no idea why this line is as low as it is. Considering Matusz was a similar size favorite in the opener, and Arrieta was a much shorter favorite last night, to see Bergesen, a pitcher that has come on strong in the last 2 months, as just a -120 favorite against a Toronto team that's struggling mightily is a little weird, especially when Kyle Drabek is making his Big League debut. We know what the Jays want to do - they want homers. The Orioles want to play good ball, and win.

Yankees @ Rays (-110) with a total of 9; P. Hughes vs. J. Shields;
Both of these pitchers have been pretty bad in the last week or two. Shields has been a shell of his usual self in the entire second half of the season, and Hughes is coming off a start where he allowed 6 runs to the Jays at home. This number is accurate, since, really, the first team to get 9 straight outs without allowing a run will probably win. The total is spot on, too, though I'd look at the Over, if anything, in this game.

Tigers @ Rangers with a total of N/A; A. Galarraga vs. C. Lewis;
I'm not usually an advocate of taking some bigger lines, but this might be an interesting spot. The Rangers are playing well enough to win at home, and the Tigers scratched Porcello (elbow tendinitis) for Galarraga, who was supposed to have his start skipped because of shoulder soreness. Does Galarraga really want to push it this late in the year, risk injury, and potentially miss time next year or spend the offseason rehabbing for a meaningless Tigers game? My guess is that his heart isn't going to be in it, entirely. The price is going to be hefty, but a RL might not be completely insane, just given the circumstance.

Twins @ White Sox (-110) with a total of 8.5; B. Duensing vs. G. Floyd;
The White Sox have had all kinds of issues with the Twinkies this year, and are in jeopardy of seeing their season (basically) end with a failure in this series. Think there's some pressure? Chicago has not responded well to being pushed in the last couple weeks, following up a quiet winning streak with a much louder losing skid. Meanwhile, the Twins just keep finding ways to win, and are slowly getting healthier. Duensing is 8-2 with a 2.02 ERA this year, 3-0 lifetime against the Sox, and has just been a shining beacon of hope for a rotation that badly needed another reliable arm behind Pavano. Floyd hates Minnesota. You do the math.

Athletics (-160) @ Royals with a total of 7.5; T. Cahill vs. B. Chen;
Another inflated line. I liked the idea of backing the A's to win this series, but the Royals just manhandled Gio Gonzalez last night, and that does scare me a little. Cahill goes for improbable win number 17 here, and it might be more fun to just see if Kansas City can get any extra base hits? I wouldn't back the Royals, and I have a very, very, almost unnoticeable lean to the A's.

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