Tuesday, September 07, 2010

Still Baseball for 1 More Day

Recap: Coming soon!

Today: Oh boy! I found something niiiiiiice. Thus, it's MLB Game of the Week time! I don't want to clutter brains with other notes - just three letters: G.O.W.

I hit a moment yesterday where I realized I was stressed about how much I had to get done, and that's not good for a handicapper. So, I'm going to try to shave a few minutes off my daily routine here and there, and step one is to just break down the KEY games on the MLB card, instead of every game and every inflated line. You probably won't even notice a difference, but there will be some games omitted if I just don't have any thoughts on them.

Sports Wagering: MLB

National League

Braves (-165) @ Pirates with a total of 8.5; D. Lowe vs. Z. Duke;
I included this game despite the rather beefy line because Derek Lowe is a lifetime 9-0, 2.76 ERA guy against the Pirates. I know the Braves are dogsh*t on the road, and they really struggle to score, but if they can't beat Zach Duke, then they're in real trouble. Believe it or not, even though lines on favorites are pretty darn inflated these days, I'd sooner play the fave in this one.

Astros @ Cubs (-130) with a total of N/A; B. Myers vs. R. Wells;
Brett Myers, the master of the quality start, takes on a Randy Wells that has good career numbers against the Astros, but actually hasn't pitched well against Houston at all, this year. I happen to believe that, without getting into a ton of specifics, the Astros are a live dog in this one. The Cubs are hitting a tad over the last few games, but they're a team that has no real aim the rest of the way, and that edge can get translated into dog value.

Cardinals (-135) @ Brewers with a total of 9; J. Garcia vs. C. Capuano;
On paper, this looks like a pretty huge mismatch, though I will take note that Garcia has been significantly better at home than on the road. Still, he's 2-1 with a 2.08 ERA against the Brewers, so it's pretty safe to say he's done his job against Milwaukee. I can't believe I have a game of this nature two days in a row where I prefer the public road team, but I do. Alas, I do.

Giants @ D'backs (-130) with a total of 8.5; B. Zito vs. D. Hudson;
Zito is a fade right now, and that's all that needs to be said. He's flailing out there, struggling to clear 4 innings in most starts, and his lifetime 3-7, 5.33 mark against the D'backs makes playing Barry all that much more frightening. I would love to see San Francisco take the first two games of the series, as I really feel the D'backs are going to get at least one.

Dodgers @ Padres (-110) with a total of 6.5; C. Billingsley vs. C. Luebke;
This line tells us quite a bit about this game, I feel. You have to think Luebke bounces back with a nicer effort against the mostly punchless Dodgers, and the line is pretty strong in San Diego's favor. Billingsley is 10-5 with a 2.48 ERA lifetime against the Padres, so the fact that he's basically a Pick with a kid making his 2nd start is a little bit unnerving. Padres need these games, and I think the managerial side will show that. The low total makes playing either side a little bit of a coin-flip, though.

American League

White Sox (-125) @ Tigers with a total of 9; J. Danks vs. J. Bonderman;
I don't really like this game that much for betting, but I included it because, hell, it's a bit of a rivalry, and Detroit does look like they're playing with a little gusto down the stretch, even if it doesn't mean much. Credit to Jim Leyland for keeping his guys marginally focused despite not having anything to play for. Bonderman was very good against the Sox here at home, but very bad in Chicago. Danks is coming off a dynamite start in Boston, and completely dominated the Tigers when he saw them a few months back, but lifetime the Tigers have snuck a few wins against him. I think there's a tiny bit of value with the home dog, especially with the White Sox coming off a long win streak.

Rangers @ Blue Jays (-133) with a total of 9.5; D. Holland vs. M. Rzepczynski;
The Rangers are just spiraling out of control right now, and now they have to turn to the young lefty Derek Holland, who looks completely unprepared to pitch at the Big League level. He's going to be good, and he's got a tremendous fastball, but he's still so raw. Rzepczynski is a little more polished, but he, too, has some issues to sort through. Still, "keep it simple, stupid" and just ride the hot team against the frigid one.

Rays @ Red Sox with a total of N/A; M. Garza vs. C. Buchholz;
This line just went off, but I do think the Red Sox are going to be setting themselves up for one final max-effort game. Until we get a line back, and maybe there's been a pitching change, but we can't really move forward. Should be a great game, and I mostly included it because I'll have some more thoughts on it tomorrow.

Royals @ Twins (-155) with a total of 7.5; Z. Greinke vs. B. Duensing;
Zack Greinke does not like facing the Twins, and I can't imagine a game where we could legitimately get a cheaper price to pay to back a much, much better team playing better, at home, in a pennant race. I know 155 looks like a lot, but Greinke's name is keeping this low, and his failures against the Twins should probably put this line up closer to 200. Value is value, even if there's some chalk involved.
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