Thursday, September 09, 2010

Toronto Blues

Recap: The streak of Paid Play winners ends at 3, and honestly, most folks don't hit 25 in a row, but if we can continue to go 3-1 every 4 Paid Plays, we'll dominate. No complaints here. Obviously, I hate losing, but again, it's part of the gig, and it's how we move forward from it that makes all the difference. Just 1, let's get it back, and then some, over the weekend!

Today: I know, I know, you guys all want more football plays during the week, but that's just not how I operate. There are a pair of College games on the card tonight, each with a couple angles, but there are 15 whopping MLB games to choose from, and we've had motivation and pressure capped pretty darn well lately on the bases! So, why stray from what's working? Baseball TOP PLAY is available at my Pro Page, as usual, here:

There are a ton of great College games coming up tomorrow, and we'll have the College ALL-ACCESS Saturday package available for just $20 bucks -- which could save you up to 40-55 dollars, depending on how many plays I put out! Then Sunday, I have the MORNING/AFTERNOON ALL-ACCESS package for $25, and the NFL on NBC Evening Top Play listed at just $15. Tons to choose from, and HUGE savings if you get down on the ALL-ACCESS packages, especially that NFL one!

Sports Wagering: MLB

National League

Marlins @ Nationals (-118) with a total of 9; A. Sanabia vs. J. Lannan;
The first thing I think of when I see this game is that Washington's bats might be cooling off, if the end of that series with the Mets was any indication. The second thing is that the Marlins get to face a rather hittable lefty, in Lannan, and one that is just 2-2 with a 5.68 ERA against Florida in his career. Lannan, though, is about as "hot" as he gets, coming off back-to-back 7 inning strong outings against the Cards and Bucs. The third thing I notice is that Sanabia seems to be scouted - he's not a mystery to teams anymore, and he's getting lit up. With that in mind, I'd look at the Over, the Marlins, or nothing.

Phillies (-244) @ Mets with a total of 7.5; R. Halladay vs. J. Mejia;
No thanks! Mets as the huge dog for an eighth of a unit?

Pirates @ Reds (-249) with a total of 9; P. Maholm vs. H. Bailey;
Bailey is 5-0 with a 1.57 ERA against the Pirates, who can't win on the road to save their lives. Home RL or nothing at all. Likely, a pass.

Cardinals (-140) @ Braves with a total of 7.5; C. Carpenter vs. M. Minor;
Mike Minor is coming off getting spanked by the Marlins, but just another lefty to suffer that fate. Now, he gets to face the slumping Cardinals, but Chris Carpenter is certainly more than a competitive foe. At this price, though, even the struggling Braves are a good value. We know how they win at home, and we know Minor is better than his last start would indicate. Carpenter, too, is 3-1 against Atlanta, but has a 4.81 ERA, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Braves locked in a tight, low-scoring battle.

Dodgers (-114) @ Astros with a total of 7; H. Kuroda vs. J. Happ;
This line is wildly low for a Dodgers-Astros affair, and I think that speaks volumes to the strides the Astros are making down the stretch. Happ has been a big part of that, 6-2 this year and rolling along for Houston. Kuroda hasn't been as good on the road, the Dodgers can't score to save their lives (as we saw in San Diego), and they've never seen Happ. Houston is a live dog, for as long as they actually remain a dog.

Cubs @ Brewers (-111) with a total of 9; C. Zambrano vs. D. Bush;
I can't believe I have a strong opinion on a game involving Dave Bush, but in terms of teams that I think can beat him, the Cubs are at the top of the list. Bush is a career 2-9, 5.47 pitcher against Chicago, and while the Cubs are far from being a team that's playing with purpose, the Brewers aren't very far ahead. Trevor Hoffman got his 600th career save, so what's left, really, besides trying to crank a few out and get that contract bonus?

D'backs @ Rockies (-184) with a total of 9.5; J. Saunders vs. J. De La Rosa;
Joe Saunders actually has good numbers against the red hot Rockies. De La Rosa does too, against the D'backs. I won't touch the side, considering how good Colorado is playing lately, but the total is inflated a tad. Maybe a look at the Under, though with CarGo batting over .500 lately, someone is going to score a little, and this one is purely a volume, value play.

Giants (-111) @ Padres with a total of 6.5; J. Sanchez vs. C. Richard;
I can't figure the Giants being a tiny road favorite (1 cent, I know...) at opening line, considering how Richard has completely dominated San Francisco this year. Sanchez is coming off a very strong showing against the Dodgers, and I suppose that this one, like so many others, is going to come down to which teams get the one key hit. I'd love to play one side or the Under, but I'm just not sure that there's enough value anywhere to warrant it.

American League

Orioles @ Tigers (-174) with a total of 9; K. Millwood vs. A. Galarraga;
Galarraga has Jim Joyce behind the plate. If someone thinks that means he's going to get a bigger strike zone, forget it. The Tigers are playing good ball right now, and so are the O's. No reason to venture into this one unless you're positive Millwood is going to deal.

Twins (-154) @ Indians with a total of 8; C. Pavano vs. F. Carmona;
This line is a little lower than I expected, considering how good Pavano has been for Minny this year, how hot the Twins have been, and how Carmona has struggled with the Twinkies in his career. Carmona has given up 11 runs to the Twins in 2 starts this year, losing one of those to Pavano right here in Cleveland a little over a month ago. The line is about 20 cents higher this time, so I guess oddsmakers are adjusting, but I still think Pavano and the public Twins get the job done, with Cleveland coming home off a trip out West.

Rays @ Blue Jays (-129) with a total of 9; J. Shields vs. B. Cecil;
This is a very, very strong opening number for the Blue Jays, and I have to think it has something to do with the Rays struggling a bit on this road trip, mostly in the pitching side of things, and Shields was no help in Baltimore. He also got clobbered in his last effort against the Jays. Cecil has been a nice pleasant surprise for the Jays, and he's also been one of their hotter pitchers. He has decent career success against the Rays (4-2, 3.29), and those Jays bats should give him some run support. Extremely intriguing opening line, more than anything else.

Yankees @ Rangers (-145) with a total of 9.5; J. Vazquez vs. C. Wilson;
Somehow, despite a 3.47 ERA, C.J. Wilson is winless against the Yankees. Seems he's been a tad unlucky, and right now, the Rangers could use a few breaks to go their way. Javier Vazquez has been mostly a turd this year, with an ERA still up over 5, not at all what the Yankees thought they were getting. Of course, the Yankees remain awfully tough no matter where they go, and the pen is really coming together late in the year. And considering how bad the Rangers have been playing, not only is this opening number a little weird, it also makes you wonder about value. The line is pointing to Texas, but the Rangers lackluster play of late isn't.

Royals @ White Sox (-214) with a total of 9; B. Chen vs. M. Buerhle;
The motivational edge in this one is enough to keep me away.

Red Sox (-115) @ Athletics with a total of 6.5; C. Buchholz vs. T. Cahill;
Interestingly, neither of these pitchers has beaten the other team, despite how good they both are. Buchholz is 0-1 against Oakland with a 6.52 ERA, and Cahill is 0-2 against the Sox with an 8.71 ERA. The Red Sox probably don't want to be traveling across the country to play games that probably won't matter, but I have trouble backing Cahill against the one team that seems to give him fits. The Over is a possibility.

Mariners @ Angels (-215) with a total of 7.5; D. Pauley vs. J. Weaver;
Here's another game no one cares about, with the Angels still trying to win only hitting solo homers, and the Mariners trying to figure out a way to win a game without scoring a run. I'd look at the Under, but certainly not the side. Though, really, I'd rather just let this game happen and pretend it just didn't actually exist.

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