Monday, September 20, 2010

Two Sports, Two Winners

Recap: Let's make this simple. MLB, 1-0; NFL, 1-0. Orioles cash as a +135 road dog in Boston, and Niners somehow didn't win on MNF outright, but stayed tough and covered by a couple points. Honestly, if the Niners lost, it would have just been stomach-turning. A well-handicapped card results in a 2-0 night. I dig it!

Today: Uh oh, what's this? Dan's baseball becomes relevant again? Damn straight. Baseball has been quietly kicking phat azz (yeah, I went there), so really, while everyone else is crying their eyes out that football is off for a couple days, this is where I remind everyone that NBA is right around the corner, and the MLB stretch run and postseason are right here before us!

If you want the MLB Top Play for Tuesday (and why wouldn't you?), it's at my Pro Page at DanBebe.com, or just click here: ADD to CART

And again, just a few games previewed per day from here on out.

Sports Wagering: MLB

Astros @ Nationals (-110) with a total of 7.5; J. Happ vs. J. Lannan;
This game made my list of three for a couple reasons. The Astros, for one, continue to play solid baseball, both home and away down the stretch, and to get them against a bad team at a Pick-em price isn't bad. Next, the starting pitching matchup is actually better than most folks realize. Happ has struggled a tad in September, but he's a career 3-0 against the Nats with an ERA under 2. Lannan is not that great, but has actually been pitching pretty well of late. That brings me to the final point on this game, and that's the ridiculously low total for a game involving the Nationals dismal pen. This is the lowest total for a Nats game since mid-August, and those game against the Cardinals aces, and when Strasburg was still pitching for Washington. Mull that one over.

Mets @ Marlins (-120) with a total of 8; M. Pelfrey vs. A. Mendez;
This other 7pm NL game made my list because of the line. Why, you might be asking, are the Marlins a short favorite with a guy named Adalberto Mendez getting the start? Why, when Mike Pelfrey is on the other side, is a pitcher with 2 Major League starts under his belt the listed favorite for a less public team? Pretty simple - Pelfrey does not like the Fish. His one start against them this year, in Puerto Rico, seemed to actually send Pelfrey into a bit of a tailspin that he only recently pulled out of. He has been pitching well, so there might be some revenge, but his 1-6 lifetime record against Florida is reason, at the very least, to beware the Mets side. Mendez is going to be on a bit of a pitch count, which makes paying a favorite price a little dicey, but teams don't know him, yet, and if he can keep his stuff in the strike zone, I think he could squeeze his way through 5-6 innings.

Giants (-124) @ Cubs with a total of N/A; M. Cain vs. C. Zambrano;
The third, and final, note of the day, and all 3 coming from the NL. What can I say? The AL matchups, aside from Yankees/Rays, are not that interesting to me. So it goes. In any case, the Giants go on the road with a chance to try to get a little separation in the NL West, but it isn't going to be easy. The Cubs are playing their best baseball of the season now that it doesn't matter, and the crazy Zambrano has been a huge reason why this team is still playing to win. On top of his recent success, Zambrano has a career 5-1, 2.83 mark against the Giants. He went 5 marginal innings against SF earlier this year, but had no control, walked 7, and had to give way to the Chicago middle relief. I'm rather confident he won't walk 7 again here. Cain, meanwhile, is 5-2 with a 2.61 ERA against Chicago, and is coming off a dominant performance against the punchless Dodgers. Prior to that outing, though, Cain had been giving up a homer or two, and that's no good. I like the Cubs as a dog here, but I'm also cautious, because road teams tend to play relatively well in game one of the trip. Certainly a word of caution for both sides.

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