Tuesday, October 05, 2010

MLB Postseason Begins!

Recap: No plays yesterday -- would have been VERY easy to make some coin selling a stupid play on Troy/MTSU (not stupid because there was no value...stupid because those are NOT teams that I feel completely confident in). Hell, on a 9-1 run, and winning 7 weeks in a row, I'm sure someone would have bought it, but we're in this TO WIN.

Today: The MLB Postseason starts today! Say what you want about baseball, these games are INTENSE, and the somewhat slow pace really goes from "chill" to "suspenseful." I love it.

From a betting perspective, you have to be willing to bet different prices than in the regular season, and what I'll do is SELL JUST ONE PLAY on any given day, and anything else will be 100% FREE, including THOUGHTS on EVERY NON-Top Play Postseason Game!


Sports Wagering: MLB

Reds @ Phillies (-206) with a total of 7; E. Volquez vs. R. Halladay;
I'm not going to go into a ton of detail on the games that are not the Top Play, but just a few quick notes. This game, to me, comes down to the fact that MOST of the Phillies have been here before. They know what it takes to win big games, and that crowd is going to be absolutely bonkers as they always are in the postseason. Roy Halladay hasn't been to the postseason, but he's pitched in some relatively big games while back in the AL East, or at least some hostile environments. He might struggle with emotions early, but just about every player on the Reds is going to be dealing with similar butterflies. From top to bottom, that team is going to be pressing, and unless Dusty Baker can do some serious managing, it's going to take a game or two (or a series) for Cincinnati to get it together. The Phillies are -200 favorites for a reason, and the back end of the bullpen is yet another reason why that's the case. Brad Lidge has been tremendous from August on, and if he maintains that consistency in the Playoffs, I fear for the arms the Reds will have to turn to in the 6th, 7th, and 8th innings, if the starters don't go deep. Yes, the Reds look like a great value, and in the regular season, I'd agree, but in the postseason, and against a team as fluid as Philadelphia, I would need more to back the Reds.

Yankees (-146) @ Twins with a total of 7; C. Sabathia vs. F. Liriano;
This one is a little dicey, though I can see reasons to like both. The obvious reason to like the Yankees is that they've owned the Twins, regardless of the situation. Of course, the most recent postseason showdown occurred after the Twins had to play their way into the playoffs with a crazy extra-inning game with Detroit. This year certainly feels a little different, and maybe it's just because of Target Field. In any case, C.C. Sabathia was probably the best pitcher in the AL this season, and he's starting for a scary team in game one. The Yankees always have Mariano Rivera at the end of that bullpen, but there does seem to be a tiny disconnect between the starters (who have also underachieved as a group) and the closer. Liriano for the Twins had a great season despite some bad luck, in terms of the standard stats. He closed the year poorly, and that's reason for concern. Was it fatigue or a lack of focus? Will the Twins show that their home record in the regular season was a trick of a new ballpark, or will they follow it up with some big offensive outputs in the postseason, and with some quality pen work. The Twins probably do have the better bullpen overall, when you put all the pieces together, which certainly makes them a decent value play in the series, but in terms of big game ability, I'm a little nervous about Liriano. This might be a series where we wait to play the Twins in a different spot, but there's definitely going to be a day worth checking them out.

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