Wednesday, October 06, 2010

MLB Postseason, Day 2!

Recap: Not the way I pictured the Postseason starting in my head, but far from disastrous. We dropped the morning Top Play on Tampa Bay as David Price just didn't have it, but managed to make back a bit with an afternoon winner on the Philadelphia RoyHalladays....er Phils. 1-1 to start the Postseason, but it's still in its infancy, so let's pick it up today!

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Sports Wagering: MLB

The lines aren't all out, so a quick profile on the afternoon tilt:

Rangers @ Rays (-125) with a total of 8; C. Wilson vs. J. Shields;
Taking the Rangers to win game 2 almost seems too tempting. Cliff Lee put on a clinic in game one, David Price didn't look comfortable, and now Texas would actually seem to have a significant jump in starting pitching edge for game 2. C.J. Wilson's season numbers are significantly better than those of Shields, including an ERA almost 2 runs lower, more wins, and better career numbers against Tampa than Shields has against Texas. So why, I wonder, is this line only 7-8 cents cheaper than Tampa was yesterday? Something seems odd. All those that backed Texas in game one will probably jump back on the Rangers, but digging deeper really shows that game one wasn't quite as lopsided as it looked. The Rays blew a huge chance early, and over the course of the game, hit 5-6 bullets right at Rangers fielders. If even 3-4 of those are hits, Texas probably has to fight to the end to win game 1. Of course, we are also seeing some inflation, since there's the betting feeling that Tampa won't lose 2 in a row. When that all shakes out, you've got some old-fashioned competing angles. The thing I do find interesting is that the Rangers would start back-to-back relatively hard-throwing lefties. I think some Managers overthink things, but this move will be scrutinized quite a bit.

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