Wednesday, January 19, 2011

Clippers on TNT!?

Opener:

Sometimes all I can do is scratch my head. On the betting side, we had YET ANOTHER game that was looking good after 36 minutes of action only to flop harder than Rob Schneider's latest flick. No excuses - time to pick a side (or total) that is still covering after that cursed 4th quarter ends. I know the jerkoffs at the "other" sites will claim I make excuses for talking about both wins and losses, but I'd rather talk about a loss than sweep it under the rug. Also, if we can continue to be winning a wager after 3 quarters every night, we will end the year at 55%. Simple as that.

In terms of the NBA as a whole, the huge news from yesterday is that Nets owner (and Russian billionaire) Mikhail Prokhorov broke off talks with the Nuggets regarding Carmelo Anthony. Everyone should tune in for some TiSB talk about this situation. I know I have some thoughts, and Mike always does, so that should be fun!

Sports Wagering: NBA

Philadelphia 76ers @ Charlotte Bobcats (-4) with a total of 187;
This is one of those screwball rematch games, since Charlotte lost an overtime affair with the Sixers as a 5-point underdog, but did manage to cover. So, how does that emotion roll into this game? Something tells me we get another close one. I think Charlotte might have the gusto to grab the win when the final buzzer sounds, and given that Philadelphia had to play a heartbreaker in Orlando last night maybe they run a tiny bit low on gusto. Still, this is going to be heated. Neither team has forgotten about the fight that took place a couple days back, and Charlotte remembers giving back what appeared to be a win. Also, this line is on its way up, thanks to Philly's OT tilt. Still, it's not much travel time, and Charlotte has found itself in a number of close games lately. In fact, the Bobcats have played 5 straight games decided by 7 points or less, and 4 of those 5 have been decided by 5 or less. Makes it tough to lay more than that, doesn't it? Lean to PHILLY and the OVER.

Dallas Mavericks @ Chicago Bulls (-3.5) with a total of 183;
Chicago sure looks like the easy side, given their impressive home record, and the fact that no one expects them to lay an egg at home in back-to-back games, but I watched that game with Charlotte, and the Bulls looked desperate many, many times on offense. They ran almost every single play through Derrick Rose, and on the three or four plays per quarter that Rose didn't touch the ball, the Bulls looked confused, disjointed and unable to score. What we saw from Charlotte, and I have to think the Mavs will employ a similar technique, is to double-team Rose beyond the 3-point line. The Bulls have about 2 shooters on their team, and they aren't in the game most of the time, which means that the defense often has time to recover off the double-team. With Boozer around, the Bulls have someone else that needs to be covered at all times, can make the 15-footer, and take it to the rim strong. He's expected to miss another game or two, so this is going to have to be the Rose show, and if Tyson Chandler can stop barfing for a few hours, I actually think the Mavs win this sucker straight up. Lean to DALLAS and the UNDER.

Los Angeles Clippers @ Portland Trailblazers (-4.5) with a total of 195;
Both teams played last night, and right now, the Clippers are the more energized team. The only problem is that most of the Clippers' recent damage has been done at home, and I'm not sold on how well they can play on the road. We know the Clippers can score, though Eric Gordon seemed to hurt his hand in last night's game with the Wolves, the question is whether they can defend, and from the looks of things, no, they cannot. The Clippers home/road splits are pretty laughable in that regard - LA scores 98.5 points per game at home, and 99 on the road, but they allow 97.9 at home, and a ridiculous 106.3 on the road, a different of over 7 points! That's not going to cut it. You can score 100 all you want, but if you're allowing near 110 points to your opponent, you're not going to win. I hate to lean against one of the hottest teams in the NBA, so I'm not going to, but I will tell everyone to be careful before taking the +4.5 and thinking it's the easiest wager of the century. WAIT AND SEE on the side, to check out how last night's games end, and a lean to the OVER on the total.

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