Monday, March 07, 2011

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Opener:

Not a particularly compelling day of NBA - in fact, I might rank two of the games among the least interesting of the month. I suppose you could argue that every Miami Heat game is worth talking about, but after the fiasco this last weekend, I almost feel like I'm rubbernecking when I talk about that team.

The Lakers continue their post-Break schedule with a trip to Atlanta; it should be mildly interesting to see if LA can get back up after the whooping they put on the Spurs. The Lakers are hot, the three 7-footers are dominating the paint, and this road trip is absolutely worth monitoring.

Sports Wagering: NBA

Milwaukee Bucks @ Washington Wizards with a total of ;
I think it was one of the regulars (maybe Hags) that repeated the line, "Nobody beats the Wiz at home...sometimes!" That's more or less how I feel about this game. Milwaukee is struggling, more injuries rendering them a fairly incompetent offensive team. They held a lead over the Celtics in their last game and just did manage to hang on and cover (losing the game), but for this team, narrow losses just aren't enough. More and more you can see them losing interest, even though Charlotte's simultaneous freefall makes jumping them and challenging the Pacers for the final spot not that unlikely. Problem is, Milwaukee might be feeling a bit sorry for itself, and without the guns to compete, they're just rolling over. Hell, they haven't shot better than 43.9% from the field in 6 games! The reasons to skip this game entirely? Well, Washington isn't really beating many teams even at home, aside from the Wolves (who were, at the time, playing a 4th in 5 nights). The Wiz are having their own offensive issues, and they did beat Milwaukee here in Washington less than a month ago. The two totals this year for these teams have been 187 and 185 - if the teams could get up near 46-47% shooting, we should see a game in the 190's, but there's no guarantee there, either. Tiny lean to the BUCKS and the OVER.

Philadelphia 76ers @ Indiana Pacers (-1.5) with a total of 205.5;
The Pacers have, pretty quietly, lost 5 of 6 games. While the most recent 3 were road contests at the Thunder, Mavs and Rockets (all tough games), I think it's safe to say the Vogel shine has come off Indiana, and they're rapidly falling back to sea level. In terms of pure hotness, the Sixers have the edge. Philadelphia has won 8 of 10 dating back to mid-February, though their scheduling has been fairly easy over that stretch. Regardless, I wouldn't really call a game with the Pacers a "toughening up" of the schedule, either. Philly has shown that they can win on the road, and they trail this season series 2 games to 1 after falling to Indy at home in mid-January. Not much to note on the scheduling front, but considering Indy was catching 5.5 in Philadelphia in the last meeting, there may indeed be some value to exploit in the line. Sum up the factors, and you've got yourself a smallish lean to the SIXERS and the UNDER.

Golden State Warriors (-3) @ Cleveland Cavaliers with a total of 216;
The Warriors are the team of near-misses right now. They came up a buck short in Boston (covered), then took the Sixers to OT before falling there, too (failed to cover). I actually like how the Warriors have played on this road trip, but I wonder when the constant inability to get over that hump and actually put a road "W" on the board will wear the team down. Will it be in this game, the 6th out of 7 games on the voyage? Will it be tomorrow, the final game, a somewhat meaningless battle with the Nets before heading home to host the Magic? It's going to happen, and I'll admit when I'm scared - and right now, I'm a little nervous to back the Warriors, even though I like how hard they've been playing. The Cavs aren't a whole lot better - they covered for a few weeks when everyone was kicking them, now they've lost Antawn Jamison and Baron Davis is trying to convince the world he's willing to play for an awful team, and, frankly, I don't see Cleveland's cover-fest continuing for much longer. I might lean a little square on this one, since the Warriors might just have one more bullet in the chamber, but it's probably a coin-flip. Cleveland lost by 20+ in Oakland, but does it matter? Small lean to GOLDEN STATE and the OVER.

Los Angeles Lakers (-3.5) @ Atlanta Hawks with a total of 185.5;
I have a strange feeling we'll see some value on Atlanta in this game when all is said and done. It might not be the opening number, but it's going to be there. Or hell, maybe it will be the opener. All I can say is that not 2 weeks ago the Lakers crushed Atlanta by 24 to open the second half of the season, and since then, the Lakers have annihilated all opponents, ranging from the lowly Wolves to the league-best Spurs. And that most recent blowout win over San Antonio was certainly an eye-catcher. The Lakers have Miami on deck in a revenge game, and even though LA is probably the hottest team in the NBA, I can't help but think those few key angles are pointing the other way. Now, don't get me wrong, Atlanta has looked pretty bad the last 2 games, but I believe they'll get up for this one, and I can't see the Lakers playing even close to as well as they did in San Antonio. Lean to the HAWKS and the OVER.

Related: Lakers Getting Groove Back [NBA.com]

Portland Trailblazers @ Miami Heat (-8) with a total of 189.5;
This is a tough one, because we really haven't seen anything like the Heat in the NBA in the last couple decades. A team that, because of 2 free agent signings, gets media attention when they take their morning leaks, well, it's just tough to know how people are going to react to every move. With a normal team, I'd be inclined to say that another meltdown and subsequent locker room campfire/feelings session would create value on that team, but with the Heat, it seems like every move they make, every minute of coverage on ESPN just serves to keep that buzz at its peak. You'd think that negative attention would make people want to fade Miami, but it seems like even the negative press just creates the notion of "Oh, Miami is all set to bounce back now." It's weird, really. So, the Heat have lost 4 straight, and everyone just keeps riding them, thinking they'll bounce back. Frankly, I'm done. I'm not betting on the Heat until they get it turned around, and even then, I still might not bet on them. Am I betting Portland? Probably not - they had to fly cross-country with only one off-day and now step into the media whirlwind in South Beach. This one is a chaotic travesty. PASS on the side is my recommendation or make a halftime play, and slight lean to the UNDER.

Related: Knicks Laugh at Heat's Tears [Yahoo! Blogs]

Houston Rockets @ Phoenix Suns (-5.5) with a total of 216.5;
Obviously, our feelings on this game will depend heavily on how the Houston game in Sacramento plays out, and that one has yet to even begin as I type this, but the expectations are pretty clear, and I laid them out in yesterday's blog. Houston is coming to Phoenix off a late game in Northern California, losing an hour to time zones, and then trying to keep up with a very up-tempo Suns team. Plus, Houston hosts the Suns in a few days, so if they do come out flat and tired, we'll have a great opportunity to back Houston then. For me, this comes down to Steve Nash. He knows the Rockets schedule, he's a smart player, and he'll just keep running until the Rockets are sucking wind. Houston isn't that deep of a team, and though Courtney Lee has been playing better and Dragic will likely bring a nice effort against his old team, if Houston gets exhausted in Sacramento, we'll see a game similar to the one they played against the Clippers, but even a shade more tired, thanks to the time difference. It's not official yet, but without knowing the Houston result from Monday, I lean PHOENIX and the UNDER.

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