Thursday, March 03, 2011

Miami Can't Beat Good Teams

Opener:

Hidden among some truly unspectacular games on this Friday card are a handful of compelling matchups, a couple each from the betting and viewing standpoints.

For instance, we are, despite all signs pointing that it shouldn't be this way, forced to ask ourselves if the hapless Cavs just match up well with the Knicks? Cleveland has won 2 in a row against the newly minted Carmar'elos (that sounded better in my head), and how much do we think the Knicks want revenge?

The Heat travel to San Antonio off a home showdown with the Magic - how do they respond?

Finally, the Lakers host the one team that gives them trouble more than any other: the Charlotte Bobcats. Will Charlotte pull it together in time to compete with LA, or is another 40 point disaster on the way?

Sports Wagering: NBA

Toronto Raptors @ New Jersey Nets (-2.5) with a total of 200.5;
These teams have both been stinking it up, though I suppose you could argue that Toronto is, at least, coming off a win, whatever that's worth. The big issue with this game is that it's taking place across the pond, as is the rematch tomorrow. Without getting into a ton of detail, I'd rather just play this home-and-home like we've done with so many others. Watch the first game, react and make some money in the second one. Somewhat irrelevant, considering my plan, but Toronto won the only game in this series so far this year, and if I absolutely had to try to make a prediction on this game, I'd expect Jersey to barely cover this one in a game that stays UNDER the total.

Chicago Bulls @ Orlando Magic (-2.5) with a total of 187.5;
Chicago still hasn't quite proven to me that they can do it on the road, though I would assume the quick note on this game is that the Magic are playing a back-to-back off a very rough game with the Heat last night, on TNT. I'm not that concerned with that, barring a ridiculous conclusion. My feelings on this game are simply that until Chicago shows me that they can beat the best teams away from home, they're not a team I can back in games like this. Chicago is 1-1 against Orlando, both games at home, so this is the real test of the season series, thus far, and if the Magic continue to play strong basketball through the game in Miami (results pending), I think they could potentially do it again. Small lean to ORLANDO and the OVER.

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Philadelphia 76ers (-9.5) with a total of 205;
As noted, we're keeping things very straightforward on Fridays, since this is sort of the day of the week where we can apply strategies from the week into a card more quickly. Minnesota recently hosted the Sixers and lost by 20, at home. Embarrassing. The Wolves are coming off a win in Detroit and the Sixers recently suffered a home loss. There aren't many scheduling or look-ahead-type angles to explore, so this one comes down to oddsmakers giving us 9.5, a dubious number. I think Minnesota continues to play hard and struggles to a tough loss, keeping it close enough for a WOLVES cover in a game that sneaks up and OVER the total.

Golden State Warriors @ Boston Celtics (-10.5) with a total of 201.5;
This is another potential revenge game, though it's pretty clear the Warriors don't have the discipline to truly compete with the Celtics when Boston is focused. Boston is banged up, but they're still Boston. Still, the Celts beat the Warriors by 22, outshooting Golden State 56% to 39%. I'm tempted to say that both of those numbers regress a tad, but I'm not certain the Warriors shoot all that much better. Still, I can't argue with the motivational edge that getting spanked at home brings out. I do, however, think the total has been more than adequately adjusted for the last game going over. Lean to the WARRIORS and the UNDER.

Cleveland Cavaliers @ New York Knicks (-12) with a total of 218.5;
This game, to me, is a lot like the Hornets recent trip to Minnesota. The bad team, of the two, had won both meetings this season, and now we're left trying to determine if that bad team is just feeling confident, or if the good team is going to take the game a little more personally. New Orleans seemed to take the losses to Minnesota hard - will New York do the same? If so, New York could conceivably win this game by 25 points. If not, Cleveland might just give them another run for their money. I'm inclined to think there's just a hair more of a chance that the Knicks bring a fire, but you have to give Cleveland credit for at least trying. If New York plays the defense here that they did against New Orleans, Miami, etc., the KNICKS should be able to just barely get it done on the cover, and they'll accomplish it by keeping the Cavs UNDER their expected total.

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Atlanta Hawks with a total of N/A;
I don't much like this game, since Atlanta is playing better since the trade deadline, and the Thunder snapped out of their mini-funk with an easy win over the Pacers. Playing this side is like trying to predict which team is going to slip first, and that's no fun. That's just guesswork. The one very small factor at play is that Atlanta is in the midst of a very tough homestand with the Knicks coming in next, then the Lakers before a road game in Chicago. If the Hawks were to lose focus for any of the games, you'd think maybe this one, though they're on revenge from a game much earlier this year. This is a damn tough side to call, though both teams have stepped up defense in the last game or two. Miniscule, teeny side lean to the THUNDER, if we're catching a few points, and smallish lean to the UNDER.

New Orleans Hornets @ Memphis Grizzlies with a total of N/A;
New Orleans is a total mess right now, and it's not clear if it's Chris Paul's ankle to blame, or just the team coming back to Earth after a good first half of the year. Either way, the Hornets have lost 3 straight and 10 of 14 dating back to the start of February. I don't think I can back them until they show signs of pulling out of this nosedive. These teams have met just once this year, which means a few more meetings are coming up, and also means this one is going to be the toughest of them to handicap. The Grizzlies lost by a point on the road in January, so will they come back with a better than average effort, or will we see a slight letdown off the home-and-home Memphis played against the Spurs? I can't help but feel like the Grizz are confident right now, and if this number is in the small/medium range, I'd look to MEMPHIS to keep the ball rolling, and to do so with a methodical UNDER, defensive attack.

Indiana Pacers @ Dallas Mavericks (-8.5) with a total of 208.5;
The Pacers actually beat the Mavs in their only meeting this year, but the Mavs were short a superstar at the time, if I'm not mistaken, so we can almost throw that game out. The angle I'm most interested in, in terms of betting the current Pacers road trip, is scheduling. Indiana played a home game against the Warriors, won it, got thwacked in Oklahoma City the next night, had a day off, and now play back-to-back contests in Dallas and Houston. I'd almost prefer to hop aboard the fade train when Indy is playing its 4th in 5 nights tomorrow, and let them tire themselves out with a better effort tonight. We're in no position to fade Dallas, with as well as they're playing, but I still think INDIANA just barely sneaks inside the spread in a game that stays UNDER.

Phoenix Suns (-2.5) @ Milwaukee Bucks with a total of 193.5;
I hate to say it (mostly because I know a lot of my favorite readers are fans of the team), but Milwaukee might just be cooked. This poor team cannot get healthy. There's a team like that every year where the moment one key cog comes back, another goes down. Now it's Bogut (again), this time with an oblique issue that saps the Bucks of their only true interior player. He's been battling a defunct elbow for some time, Drew Gooden is seemingly dead, Ersan Ilyasova is out, Delfino just finally returned, the list goes on and on. Oh well. Phoenix is the square beyond square side in this game, but I think Milwaukee is actually worse than people even think. I realize the Bucks are on revenge from an ugly loss in Phoenix, but they've got nothing left. Very small lean to the SUNS and the UNDER.

Miami Heat @ San Antonio Spurs (-1.5) with a total of 196.5;
Everyone knows the Heat's struggles with the best teams in the NBA, and while I'd love to go against Miami, the Spurs haven't looked that sharp over the last couple weeks - namely, since the Break. Miami is in a tough travel spot off a home game against Orlando, and LeBron and Wade are coming off tremendous offensive showings, and while many will insist that they will balance that out with some poor performances, I tend to think momentum carries over pretty well in back-to-back games. The other issue, and this is for both teams, is that Miami comes back home to host Chicago after this game, and the Spurs host the Lakers next. These teams meet in Miami in 10 days, too. Small lean to the SPURS, though I'd prefer to wait, and I'd consider the OVER.


Charlotte Bobcats @ Los Angeles Lakers (-12.5) with a total of 191.5;
The Lakers have been steamrolling since the Break, winning and covering 5 straight games, but if ever there was a confluence of angles that make me think they might skip a beat, this game has 'em. First, the Bobcats are eerily tough for the Lakers. It doesn't make a ton of sense, but Charlotte just gets up for LA, and the Lakers bog down against Charlotte. On top of that, the Lakers play in San Antonio on Sunday, so this could potentially be a look-ahead spot. And finally, Charlotte lost by FORTY in Denver in their last game, so you have to think they'll be thinking about trying to shake that stink. The Bobcats are on a tough road trip, so there are no guarantees they wake up at all, but I think there's a better chance they keep this one tight than lose by 30. Lean to BOBCATS and the UNDER.

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