Sunday, March 06, 2011

An NBA Week Begins, Pt 18

Opener:

I hate to make this opening section a mere reflection of what the general media is discussing, since that's probably not going to shine any more light on topics already combed to death by ESPN, but...

I have to laugh at the Miami Heat, just once, here in the opener, before continuing. Hah!

Okay, now really, what's going on? I know these games are emotional and the Heat are under the microscope, but the Heat, according to the Yahoo! game recap, "shed emotional tears" in the locker room after the game. Maybe those guys should talk to the roster of the Cleveland Cavaliers or the Washington Wizards if they want to know what it's like to truly play through an impossible season. How would it feel to spend your livelihood working for zero purpose? Man up, Heatles.

Sports Wagering: NBA

Los Angeles Clippers @ Charlotte Bobcats (-2.5) with a total of 189.5;
Eric Gordon's return was short-lived, as a face-smashing foul from Timofey Mosgov sent Gordon to the deck, and in his effort to brace himself Gordon reinjured his wrist, this time creating bone chips. Unfortunately, his outside game made the Clippers a decent team, and his absence is going to hurt them quite a bit. I'm interested, though, to find out if Mo Williams' shooting can help cover for Gordon, and if Chris Kaman's slow return to full strength can make up for some of Gordon's lost points. This is a fairly neutral spot for the Clippers, all things considered - the start of a 5 game road trip is usually a spot to play hard, but the loss of their key cog is a potential letdown. The real note on this game is that Charlotte had only 1 day between games in Portland and back home. If Charlotte wasn't playing so horribly, and most of the value wasn't already sucked out of the game by the Bobcats poor play, I'd be inclined to fade them coming home off an extended western swing. And yes, when I say the value is sucked out, I'm referring to the fact that by the mid-evening on Sunday, this line is down to 1.5 already. Slight lean to CLIPPERS and the UNDER.

Portland Trailblazers @ Orlando Magic (-3) with a total of 188.5;
Red alert! Dwight Howard is suspended for this game, so don't go throwing your life savings on the Magic before taking note of that fact. And let's face it, the Injured Star Theory might apply a little, but I'm not really sure the Magic are much of a team without Howard in the middle and without Gortat backing him up. This is the start of a 4-game trip for the Blazers through the Southeast, and I'm tempted to say that this is a good spot to pass altogether. Portland is playing off a long day of travel, and though they're still putting together marginally decent ball, if Orlando's non-Howardians step up, Portland could be in a little bit of a tired spot. On top of that, the Blazers play in Miami tomorrow. What we HAVE seen this year, though, is that teams have a tendency to cover one of the two games in the Florida two-step then get blown out in the other, and though I don't have to stats offhand, I tend to think the first of the two games is a bit more energetic. Another problem with taking Portland is that Orlando got blasted in Oregon back in December, so the non-Howard roster might use that as some fuel, and might play a little above themselves to show their team leader that if he gets flagrantly whacked, lashes out and gets suspended for picking up a T, they can hold it together for one game. We shall see. Microscopic, smallest of leans to ORLANDO and the OVER.

Howard "Not a HotHead" [Orlando Sentinel]

Utah Jazz @ New York Knicks with a total of N/A;
New York just can't beat Cleveland, but fortunately for the Knicks, they shouldn't have to deal with that issue for a little bit. Here, New York should be a decent sized favorite over a struggling Jazz team that did get a win over the Kings in OT, but still looked far from convincing. Paul Millsap was hurt in that win, and while Devin Harris is settling in fairly well and the Jazz are starting to slow things down and run some offensive sets, the team is still lacking in...something. It's tough to pinpoint the exact issue with Utah - certainly, the defense could use some work, and the shot-making, and the rebounding...nothing is completely broken, but nothing is quite right, either. I'd love to back Utah and claim it's a value play, but I don't have the trust to do it, and New York is, against everyone besides the Cavs, actually playing some defense. The Knicks are in a back-to-back off a win on Sunday early evening in Atlanta, so there may be some slight fatigue, but I don't think it's an issue, really. Very small lean to the KNICKS and the UNDER.

New Orleans Hornets @ Chicago Bulls with a total of N/A;
Just as we noted a few days back, the Hornets would, just when the bettor least expects it, figure something out, turn "it" on for a few games, and then probably slip back into semi-mediocrity for another short while. Where are we on that curve? Well, "curve" is the right word for it, considering Chris Paul suffered a head injury in the Hornets' win over the Cavs, and was taken off in a stretcher. New Orleans has won 2 straight, so I'd argue we're somewhere in the middle-to-end portion of a hotter streak, and that makes me think there might be some value on the Hornets, since the two wins have been, let's say, a shade under the radar. On the other side, the Bulls' wins have been anything but off the radar - Chicago went 4-1 on a rough Milwaukee-Washington-Southeastern road trip, including marquee TV wins over the Heat and Magic. The Bulls stock has never been higher, which, for those unfamiliar with stocks, is when you consider selling. There's the possibility the stock could inch a tiny bit more into the stratosphere, but we're right around that cusp, and with the Hornets having lost to the Bulls at home a month back and Chris Paul playing with a little more purpose, I think we might just get a slightly chunky line - lean to the HORNETS and the OVER.


Dallas Mavericks (-6.5) @ Minnesota Timberwolves with a total of 209;
This game is zero fun to handicap. The Mavericks dropped a heartbreaker to the Grizzlies on Sunday evening after being well ahead at the half. The Wolves won in Detroit to start their short 3-game trip, then fell in Philadelphia (in a game that, frankly, they should have covered - Rambis is dead to me) and Washington. Now back home, the Wolves have had a day to rest up, and Darko Milicic is supposed to return to the team to provide just a small measure of interior shotblocking. It's not much, but it's more than Pekovic can do. In essence, I don't want to back either team, but when you look at the situational angles, a Dallas team that had a long win streak snapped in dramatic fashion traveling a pretty fair distance to a place where the Mavs have very little to gain makes me lean just a bit to the MINNESOTA side, against the nausea it causes, and the OVER.

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Memphis Grizzlies (-2) with a total of 203;
Both teams played yesterday, but only one of the two teams went to OT, and that was the Thunder. Oklahoma had to go an extra 5 minutes with the Suns, while the Grizzlies staged a tremendous comeback win over the Mavericks. My issue with this game is as follows: the Grizzlies lead the season series 2 games to 1, so the Thunder should want to win this one to exert some sort of dominance; the Grizzlies won the last meeting in Oklahoma City only a month ago, so, again, the Thunder should want some revenge; both teams expended a ton of energy yesterday, with the Thunder going to OT and the Grizzlies needing a huge run to beat the Mavs. So, I ask you all, what's the point? Why take a stab at which team comes to play when either team could just as easily lay an egg? I think the one key point worth remembering is that Memphis winning 2 of 3 isn't a fluke. The Grizzlies have dominated the paint against the slightly undersized Thunder, and if they stick to that plan, they could win again. If the Thunder want it more and still have something in the tank off yesterday's tough game, they might pull off the upset. Too many "mights" for my liking. Gun to head lean to THUNDER and the UNDER.

Houston Rockets (-4) @ Sacramento Kings with a total of 216.5;
I'm not sure I'm on board with the Rockets laying a medium-sized number on the road, even with how hot they've been. Houston has definitely been kicking some serious butt the last few weeks, polishing off Indiana handily in their most recent game, but given Houston is 2-0 against the Kings already this year, including a win at Arco in December, and the Kings are finding ways to cover thanks to some renewed energy in DeMarcus Cousins, I could see the Kings surprising the Rockets. Of course, the flip side of that coin is that the Kings have a rich history (or at least 2 years of history) of hanging tough for 45 minutes only to get blasted in the final 3. Or, hell, maybe hang tough for 50 minutes, as was the case in Utah, in a game they barely covered even catching 8 in OT. I think the best course of action is to see how this game goes and react accordingly on Tuesday - the Rockets have to travel from Sacramento to Phoenix for a 1-hour-earlier run-run-run game with the Suns, and though I expect Aaron Brooks and Goran Dragic to play hard against their old teams in THAT game, it's a spot where the Suns should be able to take advantage of the Rockets, if and only if the Kings can do their part to exhaust Houston, just a little. Teeny, tiny lean to HOUSTON, amazingly, on the side, just because I think they sneak over the cover by a bucket, and the UNDER.

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